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What Drives Stock Market Returns? (2018)

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Re: What Drives Stock Market Returns? (2018)

#21

Post by grunder_advice »

lich_king wrote: post #11
RickJWagner wrote: post #9

If you read that article, you are a prime candidate to benefit from Bogleheads.org Check it out. You’ll learn the easy, certain, slow way to accumulate wealth. Your future self will be very happy.

> certain And by "certain", you mean "not certain". The core tenet are index funds, and while for the average person, they're probably better than stock-picking, you're absolutely exposing yourself to market risk.

Yeah, in particular now that index funds are well known and very common one wonders what risk one is exposed to when one is dumping everything into broad market index funds.

Re: What Drives Stock Market Returns? (2018)

#22

Post by yks »

tastyfreeze wrote: post #15
wilkommen wrote: post #12

Idk how people write posts like this anymore. Clearly the stock market isn't rational, and prices of stocks are not tied to financial fundamentals. Stocks are essentially a deflationary alternative currency that only people with disposable income can afford. The rich (and to a smaller extent, the middle class) take the currency which devalues every year (USD) and use it to buy the currency which increases in value ev…

The way to fix that is to stop debasing the currency. I stopped buying stocks a few years ago. The moment there is a contraction of credit or circulating currency we will see a 1929 style crash. Not worth the risk anymore.

What does "contraction of circulating currency" look like in the post-cash world?

Re: What Drives Stock Market Returns? (2018)

#27

Post by jrowen »

lich_king wrote: post #11
RickJWagner wrote: post #9

If you read that article, you are a prime candidate to benefit from Bogleheads.org Check it out. You’ll learn the easy, certain, slow way to accumulate wealth. Your future self will be very happy.

> certain And by "certain", you mean "not certain". The core tenet are index funds, and while for the average person, they're probably better than stock-picking, you're absolutely exposing yourself to market risk.

We should also mention that it's "not certain" that you will return safely if you leave your house.

Re: What Drives Stock Market Returns? (2018)

#28

Post by tastyfreeze »

yks wrote: post #22
tastyfreeze wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The way to fix that is to stop debasing the currency. I stopped buying stocks a few years ago. The moment there is a contraction of credit or circulating currency we will see a 1929 style crash. Not worth the risk anymore.

What does "contraction of circulating currency" look like in the post-cash world?

A drastic rise in interest rate or actual destruction of bills.

Re: What Drives Stock Market Returns? (2018)

#30

Post by alecco »

fogcity wrote: post #24
ArtTimeInvestor wrote: post #19

"...the slowing GDP growth rate in America..." What are they talking about? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP

Click the "Edit Graph" button, and change the unit to "Change from Year Ago, Billions of Dollars" to see the evidence.

https://pricedingold.com/us-gdp/
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