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AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

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Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#21

End of the engineer. Rise of the architect.

What’s preventing AI from taking on the role of an architect?

I wonder. I follow @DamiLeeArch on YouTube. She talks about architecture in the built environment. Ostensibly, built for Humans. At least for now.

Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#22

"Will AI replace software engineers?" is not the right question and stems from a misunderstanding of how tech affects humans and how they work. Tech is a tool. It will take away some jobs, and then create new ones. Think of a combine tractor -- it took away crop picking jobs, but created a new job of combine tractor driver. It bumps productivity. The correct frame is "how can software engineers (or anyone, for that m…

Tech was a tool. Historically. This doesn't mean it'll stay that way.

Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#23
IMO: Its going to. But, organizations which frame this replacement as "we're going to fire you and replace you with AI" are going to crash and burn. Instead, we're just seeing per-engineer and per-team productivity increase, and that productivity begins to outpace other bottlenecks in your company process, and you hit another wall. When faced with that second wall, some companies will naturally interpret this as "ok we don't need to hire more engineers". Other companies will try to apply AI (or hire humans) to fix that bottleneck, then go back to hiring engineers.

The dream of a Jira integration directly wired to an autonomous system to quickly close stories with no human intervention will remain a dream for a long time for anything except the lowest-level 10% of stories. Its not interactive enough; the feedback loop needs to be tighter, the vibes need to be conversational, and businesses will get the most value out of the pilot in the chair being someone who in years past called themselves a software engineer. I think we still will; the tools just change.

Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#24

The tractor analogy keeps coming up in these threads, and I think it's actually more pessimistic than people realize. Tractors didn't just change farming. They emptied entire regions. What saved the people (not the communities) was that other industries absorbed them. Factory work, services, construction. The question for software isn't whether AI creates efficiency. It's whether there's somewhere else for displaced…

What I do not understand is why is it that software engineers are so afraid? I have heard from so many other white collar people that AI already changed their job entirely (technical salesmen, translators, designers, government researchers, the list goes on), yet it is the software engineers that I hear the most noise from.

Software engineering is one of the most intellectually demanding categories of white collar work. I’m not saying it is invincible, but I do not see why SWEs should worry more.

Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#25

The tractor analogy keeps coming up in these threads, and I think it's actually more pessimistic than people realize. Tractors didn't just change farming. They emptied entire regions. What saved the people (not the communities) was that other industries absorbed them. Factory work, services, construction. The question for software isn't whether AI creates efficiency. It's whether there's somewhere else for displaced…

What I do not understand is why is it that software engineers are so afraid? I have heard from so many other white collar people that AI already changed their job entirely (technical salesmen, translators, designers, government researchers, the list goes on), yet it is the software engineers that I hear the most noise from. Software engineering is one of the most intellectually demanding categories of white collar wo…

A lot of pride is wrapped up in the craft of writing software. If that goes away (I don't think it will) it would leave a lot of people wondering how they spent all their time.

(or something like that. Obviously I'm too well adjusted to have these existential worries)

Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#26

AI will replace humans in performing every cognitive task, unless you believe that there is something about biology that makes it categorically better for certain kinds of computation. There's no reason to believe that's the case. LLMs and specifically auto-regressive chat bots with transformers for prediction will probably not replace engineers any time soon. They probably won't ever replace humans for the most cogn…

    AI will replace humans in performing every cognitive task
This is probably true, but on a time horizon that is almost certainly much much longer than we think. Centuries. Perhaps millennia, even.

It's fun to go back to the newspapers of the 1920, 30s, and 40s, and see how absolutely CERTAIN they were this was going to happen to them. I'm sure there are examples from the 19th and 18th centuries as well.

Advancement happens in fits, and then tends to hibernate until another big breakthrough.

And even when it does happen, humans love to do things, just for the sake of them. So I highly doubt art, music, literature, or any other thing humans love to intrinsically do are going away, even if they can be done by AI. If anything, they'll be done MORE as AI enables wider participation by lowering the cost and skill barriers.

Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#27

The tractor analogy keeps coming up in these threads, and I think it's actually more pessimistic than people realize. Tractors didn't just change farming. They emptied entire regions. What saved the people (not the communities) was that other industries absorbed them. Factory work, services, construction. The question for software isn't whether AI creates efficiency. It's whether there's somewhere else for displaced…

What I do not understand is why is it that software engineers are so afraid? I have heard from so many other white collar people that AI already changed their job entirely (technical salesmen, translators, designers, government researchers, the list goes on), yet it is the software engineers that I hear the most noise from. Software engineering is one of the most intellectually demanding categories of white collar wo…

I also hear the most from software engineers, but then again, I don't really follow translation or government research discussion forums.

Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#28

The tractor analogy keeps coming up in these threads, and I think it's actually more pessimistic than people realize. Tractors didn't just change farming. They emptied entire regions. What saved the people (not the communities) was that other industries absorbed them. Factory work, services, construction. The question for software isn't whether AI creates efficiency. It's whether there's somewhere else for displaced…

> The pessimistic one is that most of what needed building gets built, and the remaining work fits in fewer hands.

I don't think that's true, mainly because if it were true it would have happened a long time ago. We will never settle on one version of a thing (let it be messaging, recipes, notes, image galleries, etc...). New variants emerge over time, the only thing AI does is accelerate this.

Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#29

The tractor analogy keeps coming up in these threads, and I think it's actually more pessimistic than people realize. Tractors didn't just change farming. They emptied entire regions. What saved the people (not the communities) was that other industries absorbed them. Factory work, services, construction. The question for software isn't whether AI creates efficiency. It's whether there's somewhere else for displaced…

What I do not understand is why is it that software engineers are so afraid? I have heard from so many other white collar people that AI already changed their job entirely (technical salesmen, translators, designers, government researchers, the list goes on), yet it is the software engineers that I hear the most noise from. Software engineering is one of the most intellectually demanding categories of white collar wo…

Software engineers see the most dramatic change, and they haven't had to worry about job security for the last 25 years.

Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#30

End of the engineer. Rise of the architect.

What’s preventing AI from taking on the role of an architect?

Good taste. I just vibe coded some garbage in an hour. But it is so bad I can't see how to get to good code from here and so I'll spend the rest of the week doing it by hand.

now to be fair this is my first attepmt at vibe coding and so I might not know how to prompt the ai

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