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Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

theatlantic.com

21–30 of 517 posts

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#21
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>You have the ability to direct people and resources to enact the under? Congrats you're rich! If you have the ability, you are already rich.

What happens to rich people when they get more money, do you think they just stop further attempts at acquiring more?

Occasionally they make historically bad bets and blow up their fortunes, and it gets eaten up it all the smaller sharks circling behind them. It used to be most billionaires only lasted (as billionaires) for 3-7 years before collapsing.

The current stock market insane binge has changed that a bit.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#22

Why is polymarket any more or less dangerous than NFTs or naked option trading? Fool and his money are quickly separated…

because not everyone does naked option trading or nfts... while straight up gambling on 50/50 odds is WAY more enticing.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#23
post #17

Why is polymarket any more or less dangerous than NFTs or naked option trading? Fool and his money are quickly separated…

The article’s point was not that Polymarket is the problem-the point is validating and advertising Polymarket on national news outlets will have ugly consequences.

> the point is validating and advertising Polymarket on national news outlets will have ugly consequences.

Coinbase

Robinhood

DraftKings

FanDuel

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#24
I’m increasingly convinced that the single most important concept to understand in the 21st century is Chesterton’s Fence:

"Chesterton's fence" is the principle that reforms should not be made until the reasoning behind the existing state of affairs is understood.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G._K._Chesterton#Chesterton's_...

Gambling isn’t a new problem, but apparently we thought it would turn out differently this time, for some vague unclear reason.

I think the simplified version of that reason is: no one really believes in anything anymore, except in the value that acquiring money by any means necessary is a good thing.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#25
post #17

Why is polymarket any more or less dangerous than NFTs or naked option trading? Fool and his money are quickly separated…

The article’s point was not that Polymarket is the problem-the point is validating and advertising Polymarket on national news outlets will have ugly consequences.

Yeah, once it's on television, it is similar to polling, which can influence elections because people like to vote for the winner. However, in this case it's even worse, because someone with deep pockets can influence the predictions.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#26
post #15

Why is polymarket any more or less dangerous than NFTs or naked option trading? Fool and his money are quickly separated…

It bother lowers the threshold and increases the breadth of things that can be bet in. It's a gambling addiction nightmare.

Exactly! Friction matters a lot.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#28

The whole nation is eaten up by gambling and other vices at this time. It's not the first time such a thing has happened in a nation's history. Generally it occurs just after widespread monetary debasement and just before major, world shaking disasters. (You Are Here.) Reference: Andrew Dickson White (first president of Cornell) "Fiat Money Inflation In France", published 1896: "The government now began, and continue…

"The mercantile classes at first thought themselves exempt from the general misfortune. They were delighted at the apparent advance in the value of the goods upon their shelves. But they soon found that, as they increased prices to cover the inflation of currency and the risk from fluctuation and uncertainty, purchases became less in amount and payments less sure; a feeling of insecurity spread throughout the country…

"In this mania for yielding to present enjoyment rather than providing for future comfort were the seeds of new growths of wretchedness: luxury, senseless and extravagant, set in: this, too, spread as a fashion. To feed it, there came cheatery in the nation at large and corruption among officials and persons holding trusts. While men set such fashions in private and official business, women set fashions of extravagance in dress and living that added to the incentives to corruption. Faith in moral considerations, or even in good impulses, yielded to general distrust. National honor was thought a fiction cherished only by hypocrites. Patriotism was eaten out by cynicism.

Thus was the history of France logically developed in obedience to natural laws; such has, to a greater or less degree, always been the result of irredeemable paper, created according to the whim or interest of legislative assemblies rather than based upon standards of value permanent in their nature and agreed upon throughout the entire world. Such, we may fairly expect, will always be the result of them until the ñat of the Almighty shall evolve laws in the universe radically different from those which at present obtain.

And, finally, as to the general development of the theory and practice which all this history records: my subject has been Fiat Money in France; How it came; What it brought; and How it ended.

It came by seeking a remedy for a comparatively small evil in an evil infinitely more dangerous. To cure a disease temporary in its character, a corrosive poison was administered, which ate out the vitals of French prosperity.

It progressed according to a law in social physics which we may call the "law of accelerating issue and depreciation." It was comparatively easy to refrain from the first issue; it was exceedingly difficult to refrain from the second; to refrain from the third and those following was practically impossible.

It brought, as we have seen, commerce and manufactures, the mercantile interest, the agricultural interest, to ruin. It brought on these the same destruction which would come to a Hollander opening the dykes of the sea to irrigate his garden in a dry summer. It ended in the complete financial, moral and political prostration of France--a prostration from which only a Napoleon could raise it."

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#29
post #2

The internet is too connected and communication too instantaneous for Polymarket to be anything but a system to be gamed by those with money and influence. Bet appears on Polymarket? You have the ability to direct people and resources to enact the under? Congrats you're rich!

>You have the ability to direct people and resources to enact the under? Congrats you're rich! If you have the ability, you are already rich.

Yeah, they historically don't like to keep increasing their wealth, Elon musk going from 350bn to nearly 800bn in like 2 years is definitely not an example of that.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#30
post #20
post #5

The writer obviously hasn’t done any deep study of prediction markets and why they often provide greater insight than other polling techniques. Are they perfect? No. They predicted Hillary would win in 2016.

You obviously missed the point of the article. The point is that validating and advertising Polymarket on national news outlets will have ugly consequences.

It's amazing how many people on HN didn't bother to actually read the article.
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