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Statement from Federal Reserve Chair

federalreserve.gov

21–30 of 33 posts

Re: Statement from Federal Reserve Chair

#21
post #6

Powell won't be in control 4 months and 4 days from now. What is the benefit to Trump administration to taking control a few months earlier? Trump seems to be in a big hurry.

He's an id loosely wrapped with skin. Why do people still wonder about the logic of his actions?

Re: Statement from Federal Reserve Chair

#22
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He does not need to send a message to the next chair, he will appoint an ally. He needs votes.

FWIW, Trump appointed Powell as chair.

He also appointed Mike Pence,who single handedly derailed his coup in Jan 2021.

He learned from his mistake, and this administration is much less prone to defect than the first one.

Re: Statement from Federal Reserve Chair

#23
post #5

While this entire spectacle is just nauseating, I am not going to shed a tear for Jerome Powell. This is a man that headed one of the most incompetent bunch in my lifetime. I remember the whole 2020/1 euphoria where things were just supposed to be "transitory" according to multiple Fed minutes. Lo and behold, until it was not. They had to tighten FAST, lot of layoffs happened because of that. You could argue the soft…

>The official fed numbers for those are way off, you tell Americans spending >50% on their groceries compared to 2-3yrs ago the inflation is 4%. Or unemployment rates for that matter. All the numbers are garbage, nothing means anything anymore. Where are your numbers that disprove the fed's numbers?

They’re the wrong numbers and people misunderstand the numbers. The consumption basket for CPI (food) is determined by consumption surveys. Not desire or historical consumption. You can have less and lower quality food with a rising spend on food.

For example, food away from home is down. People cannot afford to go out to eat as much. Rather than reflect the higher cost of going out to eat, the consumption basket reduces the proportion of food away from home.

There are also hard limits on food spending. People have limited money. Instead what you seeing is a continued increase in SNAP and record food bank usage.

Make no mistake. The young family or median person is worse off with food security today despite spending more.

Re: Statement from Federal Reserve Chair

#24
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He does not need to send a message to the next chair, he will appoint an ally. He needs votes.

More than voters, trump needs Wall Ttreet's vote, and they aren't having any of this.

Sorry, I was not clear, he needs votes on the fed board, not so much a message to the chair.

Re: Statement from Federal Reserve Chair

#26

While this entire spectacle is just nauseating, I am not going to shed a tear for Jerome Powell. This is a man that headed one of the most incompetent bunch in my lifetime. I remember the whole 2020/1 euphoria where things were just supposed to be "transitory" according to multiple Fed minutes. Lo and behold, until it was not. They had to tighten FAST, lot of layoffs happened because of that. You could argue the soft…

Are you mad that they didn't raise the federal funds rate sooner? And do you not understand how the CPI is calculated?

One of the major reasons that software was hit hard is that it grew accustomed to 10 years of insanely low interest rates that for some reason didn't cause inflation, and then when things started returning to historical averages, it couldn't continue in the same way.

Re: Statement from Federal Reserve Chair

#27
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The official fed numbers for those are way off, you tell Americans spending >50% on their groceries compared to 2-3yrs ago the inflation is 4%. Or unemployment rates for that matter. All the numbers are garbage, nothing means anything anymore. Where are your numbers that disprove the fed's numbers?

They’re the wrong numbers and people misunderstand the numbers. The consumption basket for CPI (food) is determined by consumption surveys. Not desire or historical consumption. You can have less and lower quality food with a rising spend on food. For example, food away from home is down. People cannot afford to go out to eat as much. Rather than reflect the higher cost of going out to eat, the consumption basket red…

>For example, food away from home is down. People cannot afford to go out to eat as much. Rather than reflect the higher cost of going out to eat, the consumption basket reduces the proportion of food away from home.

He specifically mentions "groceries" so trying to retcon his argument to being about food away from home doesn't make any sense.

Moreover BLS publishes price indices for each item in the basket, so you can exclude the effect of the basket weights changing. Looking at the "Food Away from Home" category, that only rose 33% since the pandemic, not much higher than the overall inflation of 25.4%, and a far cry from ">50% on their groceries".

Re: Statement from Federal Reserve Chair

#28
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The official fed numbers for those are way off, you tell Americans spending >50% on their groceries compared to 2-3yrs ago the inflation is 4%. Or unemployment rates for that matter. All the numbers are garbage, nothing means anything anymore. Where are your numbers that disprove the fed's numbers?

Not the person you're replying to, but I wonder what the true unemployment rate is when you exclude people who are doing gig work temporarily after they have been laid off from their career job.

>but I wonder what the true unemployment rate is when you exclude people who are doing gig work temporarily after they have been laid off from their career job.

That would presumably show up in personal/household income figures, but everything looks normal:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N

Re: Statement from Federal Reserve Chair

#29
post #6

Powell won't be in control 4 months and 4 days from now. What is the benefit to Trump administration to taking control a few months earlier? Trump seems to be in a big hurry.

He won't be chair, but he'll still be a governor. I think the attempt is to get rid of him in both positions early and for good.

Powell could still head the FOMC, which sets the federal funds rate and elects its own chair. It would be a hilarious rebuke of Trump and whoever he appoints.

Re: Statement from Federal Reserve Chair

#30
post #6

Powell won't be in control 4 months and 4 days from now. What is the benefit to Trump administration to taking control a few months earlier? Trump seems to be in a big hurry.

> What is the benefit to Trump administration to taking control a few months earlier?

Because he (thinks he) can.

This is not about logic but about power and trying to flex it. To show people who's the boss. To bully.

If no one pushes back hard enough, then it's a fait accompli. If there's push back then there will be another attempt later on. And again. Until the push gets through.

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