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Logistics Is Dying; Or – Dude, Where's My Mail?

lagomor.ph

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Re: Logistics Is Dying; Or – Dude, Where's My Mail?

#21

Post by nbernard »

OGEnthusiast wrote: post #12

> Mail not working is a symptom of something larger—a preference for metrics over outcomes, for cost-cutting over capability, for whatever can be measured over what actually matters. This sentence sounds straight out of ChatGPT (along with the general substance-less nature of the article).

Sounds literary, if a bit grandiloquent, more than anything. It was once considered "good style" and books from the XIXth and XXth centuries are full of such sentences. See the works of James Jeans, John McPhee, Carl Sagan, and the like for instance.

Re: Logistics Is Dying; Or – Dude, Where's My Mail?

#22

Post by lifestyleguru »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #19
lifestyleguru wrote: post #17

I find the withdrawal of post services very unsettling. How do you enforce anything with fintechs, banks, insurance companies? You realize that they can freeze your funds and accounts at will, ignore emails, and outright lie over the phone?

A couple of years ago I sent a letter to HMRC (UK tax collectors). It took them more than a year to reply.

When I requested a form from HMRC they diligently used every maximum legally allowed time for processing, response, and shipping;)... and also were grumpy over the phone.

Re: Logistics Is Dying; Or – Dude, Where's My Mail?

#23

Post by IAmBroom »

ChilledTonic wrote: post #6
IAmBroom wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. The author seems to think that logistics should be like memory and Moore's Law, but in fact there are very rigid limits on the system. Sea transport isn't going to get any faster - probably ever. Air transport is subsonic. Ground transport is limited to highway speeds for trucks, and about the same in the US for rail (because we suck and can't have nice things). These hard limits mean that the improvements in…

Fair points, but I think you're responding to an argument my piece isn't quite making. The complaint isn't that logistics should follow Moore's Law or that we need same-day delivery for everything. It's that we're paying more for objectively worse service than we had a decade ago. Services aren't "adapting to consumer needs", its just objective decay being masked as optimization. The Lettre Verte example actually rei…

OK, but when I read your article, I see complaints that deliveries haven't sped up enough... along with some bizarre math claims:

> At its fastest, a message (Abraham Lincoln’s Inaugural Address) was carried between St. Joseph and Sacramento in only 7 days and 17 hours.

> With modern technology, the USPS estimates that a similar sized letter would take a maximum of five days. With planes, trains, and automobiles available to us, we’ve shaved off about two days.

> Two days. In 165 years.

You are comparing the best the Pony Express could do with the worst the USPS estimates could happen, and then rounding 2.7 down to 2 to make it look even worse.

But the improvement is really 5 days 17 hours (most mail is delivered in 2 business days), or nearly three times faster.

And your final statement reiterates this numeric fallacy... which again sounds like you think the problem is that things haven't improved enough in 165 years. I believe you wanted to make another point, but focused on something else instead.

Re: Logistics Is Dying; Or – Dude, Where's My Mail?

#24

Post by IAmBroom »

HWR_14 wrote: post #4
IAmBroom wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. The author seems to think that logistics should be like memory and Moore's Law, but in fact there are very rigid limits on the system. Sea transport isn't going to get any faster - probably ever. Air transport is subsonic. Ground transport is limited to highway speeds for trucks, and about the same in the US for rail (because we suck and can't have nice things). These hard limits mean that the improvements in…

> Sea transport isn't going to get any faster - probably ever. Sea transport could be sped up by 50% with current ships just by turning the engines to full, but that increases the fuel cost dramatically. With an EV ship that fuel cost increase would probably be negligible. The issue with speeding up sea transport is that the ports at either end are already running close to or at capacity, so increasing the number of…

> With an EV ship that fuel cost increase would probably be negligible.

The batteries are still charged by fuel onshore. The cost increase would double, plus engine fatigue would increase. How is that negligible?

Re: Logistics Is Dying; Or – Dude, Where's My Mail?

#25

Post by IAmBroom »

lmm wrote: post #8
ChilledTonic wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair points, but I think you're responding to an argument my piece isn't quite making. The complaint isn't that logistics should follow Moore's Law or that we need same-day delivery for everything. It's that we're paying more for objectively worse service than we had a decade ago. Services aren't "adapting to consumer needs", its just objective decay being masked as optimization. The Lettre Verte example actually rei…

Are we paying more? Or are we being lied to about the rate of inflation?

A completely different topic.

Re: Logistics Is Dying; Or – Dude, Where's My Mail?

#26

Post by IAmBroom »

wombatpm wrote: post #16
altcognito wrote: post #9

The article makes a claim that it is no better in Canada and proceeds to remark about financial conditions. The mail is being delivered just fine, just not profitably. I've not had issues with the USPS, but I don't doubt that it is getting worse. Private delivery (Amazon and the like) has been pretty much flawless. Order from McMaster, and it almost invariably arrives within two days (continental US) I just don't exp…

The USPS is in year 4 of a 10 year overhaul of its infrastructure. New facilities with new equipment optimized for the current mail mix. Magazines and catalogs used to be huge. Now they are a fraction of their volume. First class letter volume is crashing as everyone goes paperless. Where there use to be separate facilities for processing first class, bulk mail, and packages; the new facilities deal with everything.…

> Things may get worse before they get better.

I like to say, things ALWAYS get worse before they get better!

Halfway through a remodel your kitchen is now torn up and nonfunctional.

Halfway through a surgery you have an open gut wound AND a tumor.

Halfway through combing your hair you look like you had a stroke halfway through combing your hair.

Re: Logistics Is Dying; Or – Dude, Where's My Mail?

#27

Post by mschild »

Denmarks main postal carrier discontinued letter delivery last year.

Living in Germany I find the contrast always interesting and often, unfortunately, annoying. Almost anything legal has to be done on paper via letter. Fax (yes, really) is one of the only other alternatives that is accepted. Im just really glad that after moving, my new hometown is significantly stepping up their digital game and making it as easy as possible. They even respond to emails in city hall!

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/12/30/europe/denmark-postal-ser...

Re: Logistics Is Dying; Or – Dude, Where's My Mail?

#29

Post by bob1029 »

FedEx is easily the best carrier in my area right now. It's not even close. If I need absolute certainty that something will arrive, I'm paying extra for the overnight priority option. All of my employers have seen it the same way. Even the holiday gift packages are sent FedEx.

USPS has been a disaster by comparison. We've been dealing with actual criminal elements in my local post office stealing and tampering with mail. I don't know of anyone in my community who hasnt filed a complaint with the USPIS. I don't even care about the packages anymore. I'm more worried about the tax forms, vehicle titles and replacement credit cards getting lost now.

Any merchant who only offers USPS or uses them as the last mile of delivery is a no-go for me. Amazon is the most stressful experience because you never know. The best approach I've found is to use their pickup box and batch things to coincide with my grocery trip.

Re: Logistics Is Dying; Or – Dude, Where's My Mail?

#30

Post by b112 »

bob1029 wrote: post #29

FedEx is easily the best carrier in my area right now. It's not even close. If I need absolute certainty that something will arrive, I'm paying extra for the overnight priority option. All of my employers have seen it the same way. Even the holiday gift packages are sent FedEx. USPS has been a disaster by comparison. We've been dealing with actual criminal elements in my local post office stealing and tampering with…

Obviously you're summarizing a frustrating problem, so my suggestion may be unhelpful. However, mail tampering is a serious crime. If everyone is complaining, and the USPS is doing nothing, it should be handled as a crime.

I'm not familiar with US law in this, but I know the FBI has stepped in for some cases that are over state borders. Anecdotally, that is.

And I also know that private citizens can bring criminal cases to the prosecutor if the police aren't. If there are a lot of you, it wouldn't be too expensive to jointly hire a lawyer. Because this is absolutely not normal, at all.

And it should be squashed, and hard, with people led away in cuffs.

If this problem is persistent, the local city should get involved too.

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