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2026 Predictions Scorecard

rodneybrooks.com

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Re: 2026 Predictions Scorecard

#21

Post by porphyra »

christianqchung wrote: post #4
stanislavb wrote: post #3

"2. Self Driving Cars. In the US the players that will determine whether self driving cars are successful or abandoned are #1 Waymo (Google) and #2 Zoox (Amazon). No one else matters. The key metric will be human intervention rate as that will determine profitability." - I love that he's not mentioning the speculation company of the century. We don't have to mention it either.

Tesla? I don't love the company or the owner, but it seems silly to completely dismiss them so early on, relatively speaking. Self driving has been a decades long effort; even though I am heavily in favor of Waymo, some speculation towards Tesla's path seems fair. At the same time, I agree with the article here: > Tesla (owned by Tesla) has put on a facade of being operational, but it is not operational in the sense…

Given that fully driverless Model Ys and Cybercabs have been spotted going around Austin, I find that the "they are not on a path to becoming a real service" is a little too strongly worded.

Re: 2026 Predictions Scorecard

#22

Post by qingcharles »

strange_quark wrote: post #15
brandall10 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to have some deeper insight into this - in your estimation, how often does tele-operation (even a small correction) take place?

There’s been reporting on this in several mainstream publications that was accurate as far as the systems I worked with. Unfortunately I don’t want to dox myself on here, so unsatisfyingly the best I can offer is “trust me bro”.

The tele-operation is also kinda vague because as I understand it, with Waymo at least, they are not turning a steering wheel and pushing pedals at HQ, they are saying "Pull over here" etc.

Re: 2026 Predictions Scorecard

#23

Post by robotresearcher »

stanislavb wrote: post #3

"2. Self Driving Cars. In the US the players that will determine whether self driving cars are successful or abandoned are #1 Waymo (Google) and #2 Zoox (Amazon). No one else matters. The key metric will be human intervention rate as that will determine profitability." - I love that he's not mentioning the speculation company of the century. We don't have to mention it either.

> I love that he's not mentioning the speculation company of the century. We don't have to mention it either.

The word 'Tesla' appears 17 times in the article.

Re: 2026 Predictions Scorecard

#25

Post by sinuhe69 »

Reading the comments here about lawyering to make the prediction seems accurate, I have to say for me the value of prediction is not firstly about its binary accuracy, but more about the insights I get from the prediction and adjustment process. As our language is always limited, putting everything in a binary yes/no will almost always result in some dissatisfaction. We learn never much from binary values but from the gray values and how we must change our judgements to adapt. Perhaps that’s why punishment can cause a reaction but not deep learning and good educators always strive for insights and self-correction.

Useful predictions should also not in black or white but should be presented with an uncertainty, percentage of confidence if one can. It helps one to adjust ones prediction and confidence when new facts come along and I argue every serious predictors should do that.

Re: 2026 Predictions Scorecard

#26

Post by reactordev »

What’s even crazier is those fringe ideas from back in the day now have the compute power to actually execute as designed and really interesting things emerged.

I feel like we are on the verge of it, some say we already had it, but the singularity where hardware, learning, software, sensors and vision, all collide with enough headroom to make real-time our time. Now if we could only solve for our monkey brains.

Re: 2026 Predictions Scorecard

#27

Post by wpietri »

bhelkey wrote: post #11

Of the predictions I read, I found that the author engages in pretty heavy handed rules lawyering in order to make their predictions accurate. For example, the author takes the stance that current self driving cars (Waymo, Zoox) do not count as self driving. The justification being that a human operator is involved some small fraction of the time. By law, Waymo must report disengagements in California. In 2024, Waymo…

As somebody who has been reading them since the first year, I think you have it wrong. That self-driving prediction was always about Level 5 autonomy. What's changed between now and then is that we've basically stopped talking about that, instead accepting intervention-as-a-service companies as self driving.

Re: 2026 Predictions Scorecard

#28

Post by [deleted] »

porphyra wrote: post #21
christianqchung wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla? I don't love the company or the owner, but it seems silly to completely dismiss them so early on, relatively speaking. Self driving has been a decades long effort; even though I am heavily in favor of Waymo, some speculation towards Tesla's path seems fair. At the same time, I agree with the article here: > Tesla (owned by Tesla) has put on a facade of being operational, but it is not operational in the sense…

Given that fully driverless Model Ys and Cybercabs have been spotted going around Austin, I find that the "they are not on a path to becoming a real service" is a little too strongly worded.

[deleted]

Re: 2026 Predictions Scorecard

#29

Post by denkmoon »

christianqchung wrote: post #4
stanislavb wrote: post #3

"2. Self Driving Cars. In the US the players that will determine whether self driving cars are successful or abandoned are #1 Waymo (Google) and #2 Zoox (Amazon). No one else matters. The key metric will be human intervention rate as that will determine profitability." - I love that he's not mentioning the speculation company of the century. We don't have to mention it either.

Tesla? I don't love the company or the owner, but it seems silly to completely dismiss them so early on, relatively speaking. Self driving has been a decades long effort; even though I am heavily in favor of Waymo, some speculation towards Tesla's path seems fair. At the same time, I agree with the article here: > Tesla (owned by Tesla) has put on a facade of being operational, but it is not operational in the sense…

Tesla's commitment to no lidar means they aren't even in the race.

Re: 2026 Predictions Scorecard

#30

Post by ghaff »

wpietri wrote: post #27
bhelkey wrote: post #11

Of the predictions I read, I found that the author engages in pretty heavy handed rules lawyering in order to make their predictions accurate. For example, the author takes the stance that current self driving cars (Waymo, Zoox) do not count as self driving. The justification being that a human operator is involved some small fraction of the time. By law, Waymo must report disengagements in California. In 2024, Waymo…

As somebody who has been reading them since the first year, I think you have it wrong. That self-driving prediction was always about Level 5 autonomy. What's changed between now and then is that we've basically stopped talking about that, instead accepting intervention-as-a-service companies as self driving.

Well, ans we're talking about within very specific locales.

Honestly, Brooks--who has been presented and self-presented as something of a skeptic with respect to autonomous self-driving--looks like something of an optimist at this point. (In the sense that your kid won't need to learn to drive.)

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