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China DRAM Maker CXMT Targets $4.2B IPO as It Takes on Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron

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Re: China DRAM Maker CXMT Targets $4.2B IPO as It Takes on Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron

#21
post #17
post #12

Since I'm in China, I took a look at Taobao hoping to find cheaper ddr5 sticks made with CXMT chips. Unfortunately, they are the same price or only marginally cheaper than Hynix sticks (1900 - 2300 rmb for 32g ddr5). Perhaps capacity at CXMT is not very high yet.

Or maybe CXMT is not dumb? If the worldwide price of some commodity is $100 and you can produce an item that is nearly as good as everyone else’s, would you sell it for $98 or for $50? Or the supply of non-CXMT DRAM is sufficient poor right now that Chinese buyers, of which there are plenty, are willing to pay approximately as much for CXMT’s product as for anyone else’s? CXMT’s real ability to reduce prices will com…

Why would I buy CXMT if it's virtually the same price as Hynix?

Edit: I see you made an edit without noting that you did so.

Only this sentence was in the pre-edit comment: "Or maybe CXMT is not dumb? If the worldwide price of some commodity is $100 and you can produce an item that is nearly as good as everyone else’s, would you sell it for $98 or for $50?"

For your added comments: There is no supply issue, there are hundreds of sellers of Hynix, Crucial, Samsung ddr5 on Taobao. For your second comment about them driving down prices later on by increasing supply, well, I first of all noted that perhaps capacity is not great in my comment, and you are also contradicting your first point where you said CXMT would be stupid to compete on price.

In reality, the history of every Chinese market entrant, even those leading technologically, shows that they always cut margins to compete by driving down costs. I have a decade worth of experience related to this.

I believe CXMT simply has not gotten to the stage where they really try to win market share and crank up supply - perhaps due to lack of capital, or as I said, due to capacity limitations (which may be a result of capital).

Re: China DRAM Maker CXMT Targets $4.2B IPO as It Takes on Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron

#22

Not sure how you're taking on Samsung or Micron when both of them have pulled out of the market...?

Micron pulled out of the consumer market, they're still making DRAM. There's been no news on Samsung exiting any DRAM market as far as I can tell?

https://tech.yahoo.com/computing/articles/ram-shortage-stay-...

> Samsung is officially stepping in to shut down the panic. The company has firmly denied reports that it plans to kill off its consumer SATA SSD production. In a direct statement, a spokesperson made it clear: the rumors are false, and Samsung isn’t going anywhere.

Re: China DRAM Maker CXMT Targets $4.2B IPO as It Takes on Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron

#23
post #7

https://www.semiconsam.com/p/why-did-the-memory-chicken-game... | https://s-space.snu.ac.kr/bitstream/10371/95351/1/01%20Jeho%... Chinese memory makers are the product of massive state backing, with tens of billions of dollars in subsidies and the full weight of the Chinese government behind them. Could Samsung win a power struggle against the Chinese government? .. The market that [Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron] crea…

Basically the same thing that happened to Nortel.

Reminds me of when those European monks smuggled silkworms out of China.

Re: China DRAM Maker CXMT Targets $4.2B IPO as It Takes on Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron

#24
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or maybe CXMT is not dumb? If the worldwide price of some commodity is $100 and you can produce an item that is nearly as good as everyone else’s, would you sell it for $98 or for $50? Or the supply of non-CXMT DRAM is sufficient poor right now that Chinese buyers, of which there are plenty, are willing to pay approximately as much for CXMT’s product as for anyone else’s? CXMT’s real ability to reduce prices will com…

That depends on whether your investor (China) also sells integrated products whose sales would increase if RAM were cheaper, e.g. smartphones or mini PCs with bundled LPDDR5, https://www.theblaze.com/columns/opinion/your-laptop-is-abou... Research and development in conventional computing are already suffering. Investment in efficient CPUs, affordable networking equipment, edge computing, and quantum-adjacent technol…

Mini PCs seems to be the perfect vector, since the only serious manufacturers are Chinese brands. International brands only seem to dabble in this sector.

Re: China DRAM Maker CXMT Targets $4.2B IPO as It Takes on Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron

#25
post #21
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or maybe CXMT is not dumb? If the worldwide price of some commodity is $100 and you can produce an item that is nearly as good as everyone else’s, would you sell it for $98 or for $50? Or the supply of non-CXMT DRAM is sufficient poor right now that Chinese buyers, of which there are plenty, are willing to pay approximately as much for CXMT’s product as for anyone else’s? CXMT’s real ability to reduce prices will com…

Why would I buy CXMT if it's virtually the same price as Hynix? Edit: I see you made an edit without noting that you did so. Only this sentence was in the pre-edit comment: "Or maybe CXMT is not dumb? If the worldwide price of some commodity is $100 and you can produce an item that is nearly as good as everyone else’s, would you sell it for $98 or for $50?" For your added comments: There is no supply issue, there are…

I'm not even sure most people know the difference. RAM is RAM for most people, that know and willing to buy RAM sticks on their own.

Re: China DRAM Maker CXMT Targets $4.2B IPO as It Takes on Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron

#26
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No DRAM manufacturer I know of uses ASML. DRAM is several years behind on lithography due to complexity/differences. Outside of that, I hope China can manage to obtain a foothold in silicon, the world, especially NVIDIA, Micron, Hynix, etc. definitely needs a wake up call. The AI world was spooked when China released an MIT licensed LLM model that outperformed others in many metrics at the time, let us hope that othe…

No thank you, for the overconfident misinformation. Of the three large DRAM companies in the world Micron is the only one based in the USA. Micron s/uses/“will use” ASML’s EUV machines[0] in New York. Micron shares some info on their EUV DRAM process[1]. DRAM composed 80% of Micron’s revenue, NAND is about 20%. 0: https://www.syracuse.com/business/2023/09/mind-boggling-mach... 1: https://www.micron.com/products/memor…

> Micron uses ASML’s EUV machines in New York

Will use. The fab isn't built yet.

Re: China DRAM Maker CXMT Targets $4.2B IPO as It Takes on Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron

#27
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That depends on whether your investor (China) also sells integrated products whose sales would increase if RAM were cheaper, e.g. smartphones or mini PCs with bundled LPDDR5, https://www.theblaze.com/columns/opinion/your-laptop-is-abou... Research and development in conventional computing are already suffering. Investment in efficient CPUs, affordable networking equipment, edge computing, and quantum-adjacent technol…

Mini PCs seems to be the perfect vector, since the only serious manufacturers are Chinese brands. International brands only seem to dabble in this sector.

If (SO)DIMM memory prices rise to the stratosphere while integrated memory in Chinese mini PCs remain relatively affordable, from 16GB Intel N150 to 128GB AMD Strix Halo for Edge AI, there will be industry-altering consequences that persist long after DRAM pseudo-shortages end. Oligopolists can relearn old lessons, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma

  New companies that serve low-value customers with poorly developed technology can improve that technology incrementally until it is good enough to quickly take market share from established business.

Re: China DRAM Maker CXMT Targets $4.2B IPO as It Takes on Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron

#30
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mini PCs seems to be the perfect vector, since the only serious manufacturers are Chinese brands. International brands only seem to dabble in this sector.

If (SO)DIMM memory prices rise to the stratosphere while integrated memory in Chinese mini PCs remain relatively affordable, from 16GB Intel N150 to 128GB AMD Strix Halo for Edge AI, there will be industry-altering consequences that persist long after DRAM pseudo-shortages end. Oligopolists can relearn old lessons, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma New companies that serve low-value customers wi…

Indeed. I am waiting to buy a Strix Halo on Taobao when supply has been replenished. I asked the manufacturer if price would remain the same after restocking, they said they weren't sure. They re-stock in the middle of January, so it will be interesting to see what the price ends up being. I wonder if there is any advantage of having integrated memory in this regard?
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