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2025 Letter

danwang.co

21–30 of 340 posts

Re: 2025 Letter

#21
post #5

> Beijing has been preparing for Cold War without eagerness for waging it, while the US wants to wage a Cold War without preparing for it. great line

It's not clear what the US plan even is. Move all manufacturing back home and compete with China ASAP?

With trump at the helm, do you think there is much of a plan?

Re: 2025 Letter

#22
post #14

> I believe that Silicon Valley possesses plenty of virtues. To start, it is the most meritocratic part of America. Oh come on, this is so untrue. Silicon Valley loves credentialism and networking, probably more than anywhere else. Except the credentials are the companies you’ve worked for or whether you know some founder or VC, instead of what school you went to or which degrees you have. I went to a smaller college…

I guess I'll ask since you strongly disagree and ignoring the fact this is very reductionist: In your opinion, what is the most meritocratic part of America?

Isn’t the obvious answer that many would refute the premise of meaningful regional variation? In which case the claim isn’t that somewhere else is that place but rather than all places are substantially equivalent on this difficult to measure concept (or difference is unknown).

Re: 2025 Letter

#23

> One way that Silicon Valley and the Communist Party resemble each other is that both are serious, self-serious, and indeed, completely humorless. There is a commedy show literally called Silicon Valley making fun of what's going on in the valley and everybody I know in tech loves it and appreciates the humor.

Right, but it’s written and produced in Hollywood, not in Silicon Valley. The Valley, so the argument goes, could not produce “Silicon Valley” the show. It provides the topic to be skewered, but it can’t skewer itself.

Re: 2025 Letter

#24
post #5

> Beijing has been preparing for Cold War without eagerness for waging it, while the US wants to wage a Cold War without preparing for it. great line

I don't care who the next hegemon will be; US or China. But please pray, can these people tell what their next strategy is for the rest of the world after the Cold War ends. Will the next regime advance sciences further after whichever side wins the Cold War? Can't that be done without the war? US has been hegemon since last 5 or so decades; has it worked out best even ONLY for the Americans if not for the rest of the world. I will ask a very obvious question taught as a intuition pump by Daniel Dennett, "Then What? Then What? Then What?". Do these blob forces have post-Cold War steps figured out for the best of humanity, if not for whole of humanity but a national subset.

Here is a fun representation I have in my mind:

Galactic Emperor

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfQbm8Wk2vU

Re: 2025 Letter

#25
USA is cooked sadly, that being said being Britain 2.0 ain't too bad. pretty much all the YC companies in the past few cohorts just are desperately rent seeking, sad but true - go look urself

Re: 2025 Letter

#26
post #8

> Which of the tech titans are funny? In public, they tend to speak in one of two registers. The first is the blandly corporate tone we’ve come to expect when we see them dragged before Congressional hearings or fireside chats. The second leans philosophical, as they compose their features into the sort of reverie appropriate for issuing apocalyptic prophecies on AI. This is just not accurate though? For example, thi…

1. Elon is not funny. He’s deeply unfunny. 2. “Tend to” is the key bit you’re missing. It “tends to” be true that titans speak in those registers, even if it is true that Elon, a titan, a does not.

Re: 2025 Letter

#27
A fascinating and eye-opening read.

One of my intentions for this coming year is to critically examine and (if appropriate) alter or dispel some preconceptions I have. To that end, I'm curious about this part:

> You don’t have to convince the elites or the populace that growth is good or that entrepreneurs could be celebrated. Meanwhile in Europe, perhaps 15 percent of the electorate actively believes in degrowth. I feel it’s impossible to convince Europeans to act in their self interest.

Can someone elaborate on how growth is aligned with the general interest? To my mind, although growth could _theoretically_ lead to a "lifting all boats" improvement across the board, in practice it inevitably leads to greater concentration of wealth for the elite while the populace deals with negative externalities like pollution, congestion, and advertizing. Degrowth, on the other hand, would directly reduce those externalities; and, if imposed via progressive taxation, would have further societal benefits via funded programs.

I'd very much like to hear the counter-argument. It would be pleasant and convenient to believe that growth and industry are Good, Actually, so that I needn't feel guilty for contributing to them or for furthering my own position - but (sadly!) I can't just make myself believe something without justification.

Re: 2025 Letter

#29
post #18

from the piece: “ the median age of the latest Y Combinator cohort is only 24, down from 30 just three years ago “ does yc publish stats to validate?

Didn’t we just have a front page article about the average founder age increasing well beyond 30 this year? Is it a non-normal distribution or what?

Lots of explanations with power here:

- There's a hard edge to the distribution that isn't far from 24 (I'd expect relatively few sub-18-year-old YC founders, but more 31+-year-olds)

- Older founders (with more experience, larger networks and less life flexibility) aren't a good fit for incubators.

Re: 2025 Letter

#30
post #18

from the piece: “ the median age of the latest Y Combinator cohort is only 24, down from 30 just three years ago “ does yc publish stats to validate?

Didn’t we just have a front page article about the average founder age increasing well beyond 30 this year? Is it a non-normal distribution or what?

Tunguz shows early 40s as the median

https://tomtunguz.com/founder-age-median-trend/

YC trends younger given what they’re looking for

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