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Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

theguardian.com

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Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#21

Post by bdangubic »

sixQuarks wrote: post #19
bdangubic wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you wrote TSLA and reality in the same sentence :) people keep forgetting that TSLA is not a car company! they are AI and humanoid and robots and … company and as such worth 100x current eval :)

Solving autonomy is the hardest technical challenge right now, way harder than creating a frontier LLM AI. Tesla has basically solved it. So to argue sarcastically about Tesla is in my opinion being ignorant. I get the Elon hate, but he is usually correct in his predictions, albeit late

> Tesla has basically solved it

What exactly has Tesla solved, automation-wise? Not sure what you are specifically referring to? I am being everything except ignorant, I look at things with my own eyes and do not fall for car-salesman tricks. Perhaps I gave him the benefit of the doubt initially but after decade+ of overpromising and underdelivering (underdelivering might be the understatement of the century) forgive me if I do not believe what a car salesman is pitching. I do not hate Elon at all, actually think he's one of the greatest visionaries of our time and probably the greatest salesman in the history of mankind.

Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#22

Post by boredatoms »

sixQuarks wrote: post #20
jqpabc123 wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think you quite realize that Cybercab is a long, long way from scaling into a profitable business. Safety and remote drivers are a huge barrier to achieving this. As is legal liability for accidents. Uber sidesteps this issue completely since it is the driver's responsibility. Word is that Robotaxi is crashing at a higher rate than human drivers in Austin --- even with safety drivers. https://www.technology.o…

I don’t think you realize that Tesla has basically solved autonomy. you are obviously not using the latest Tesla version of FSD

Did you forget the /s

Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#23

Post by breve »

languagehacker wrote: post #3

The Tesla board should just put a bumper sticker on Musk that said "I bought this before Elon went crazy". Like, how did you not know.

The board doesn't care. They got theirs:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/13/business/tesla-stock-sale...

https://www.afr.com/technology/life-changing-wealth-stopped-...

Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#25

Post by Neywiny »

funnymunny wrote: post #24

> … in a new “consensus” section on its investor website … Why would they willingly start publishing numbers that are worse than 3rd party consensus, out of nowhere?

Maybe they're starting to realize that the first step to fixing a problem is admitting you have one? Feels safer to say "look we didn't do well and we're going to not do well for a bit, but we'll get back on our feet" because it could encourage a buying of the dip.

Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#27

Post by JumpCrisscross »

sixQuarks wrote: post #19
bdangubic wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you wrote TSLA and reality in the same sentence :) people keep forgetting that TSLA is not a car company! they are AI and humanoid and robots and … company and as such worth 100x current eval :)

Solving autonomy is the hardest technical challenge right now, way harder than creating a frontier LLM AI. Tesla has basically solved it. So to argue sarcastically about Tesla is in my opinion being ignorant. I get the Elon hate, but he is usually correct in his predictions, albeit late

> Tesla has basically solved it

Waymo has solved it. Tesla and BYD probably will solve it. And then everyone else will solve it for the same reason everyone likes having car factories: jobs and tanks.

I say this as someone who was in a Waymo and used Tesla’s latest FSD less than a month ago. One of them still fails spectacularly ungracefully. In the other I can take a nap.

Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#28

Post by JumpCrisscross »

thelastgallon wrote: post #9

What happens when TSLA speculation finally hits reality? It was understandable when growth was 50% yoy, but now its negative growth YOY and PE is 300. Would it take down the entire stock market with it because it unravels the many layers of leverage/margin or would money flow to other speculations?

> What happens when TSLA speculation finally hits reality?

In all likelihood? xAI buys Tesla. That’s the functional floor.

> Would it take down the entire stock market with it

No.

Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#29

Post by ckastner »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #28
thelastgallon wrote: post #9

What happens when TSLA speculation finally hits reality? It was understandable when growth was 50% yoy, but now its negative growth YOY and PE is 300. Would it take down the entire stock market with it because it unravels the many layers of leverage/margin or would money flow to other speculations?

> What happens when TSLA speculation finally hits reality? In all likelihood? xAI buys Tesla. That’s the functional floor. > Would it take down the entire stock market with it No.

How low could that floor be, in dollar terms?

The financial engineering with the Twitter/X takeover was already pretty bold, but Tesla would probably still be a chunk an order of magnitude larger than that.

Re: Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

#30

Post by bdangubic »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #27
sixQuarks wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Solving autonomy is the hardest technical challenge right now, way harder than creating a frontier LLM AI. Tesla has basically solved it. So to argue sarcastically about Tesla is in my opinion being ignorant. I get the Elon hate, but he is usually correct in his predictions, albeit late

> Tesla has basically solved it Waymo has solved it. Tesla and BYD probably will solve it. And then everyone else will solve it for the same reason everyone likes having car factories: jobs and tanks. I say this as someone who was in a Waymo and used Tesla’s latest FSD less than a month ago. One of them still fails spectacularly ungracefully. In the other I can take a nap.

The question I ask every person pitching FSD is whether they would let the FSD take their kid to soccer/bball… practice - still waiting for first yes answer
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