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How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

japantimes.co.jp

21–30 of 645 posts

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#21
> It was built by a team of former engineers from Dutch semiconductor giant ASML who reverse-engineered the company’s extreme ultraviolet lithography machines (EUVs)

This seems like the obvious conclusion of an ethnic bloc against a mercenary creedel nation?

Any westerner reading this right now wouldn’t die for their country, it’s almost absurd. It’s like asking them to die for Walmart.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#22
> China’s prototype lags behind ASML’s machines largely because researchers have struggled to obtain optical systems such as those from Germany’s Carl Zeiss, one of ASML’s key suppliers, the two people said.

So, now they just need an old retired Chinese that worked for Zeiss and build a prototype for the optical devices they need.

They use armies of graduates just to literally copy, when they could build something new or different.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#23
post #14

Seems like demographics, AI, and tech parity are converging on a Taiwan takeover attempt in the 2027-2030 timeframe.

The track record says China will probably just buy Taiwan. If you hate invasions so much, you should probably focus your energies on Venezuela. Looks like Trump might start a war for Christmas.

Wars are old fashioned. This is a “special military operation”

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#24
With Nvidia scaling down their consumer GPU production [0] I wonder if we will see consumer GPUs shipping from China in the future. Western companies seem to be abandoning the consumer/prosumer market which will have bad implications for hobbyists and aspiring professionals down the line.

[0] https://www.pcmag.com/news/nvidia-might-cut-rtx-50-gpu-suppl...

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#25

The knowledge came from former ASML employees. I wonder if countries will sanction these individuals given the geopolitical implications of their assistance.

> The team includes recently retired, Chinese-born former ASML engineers and scientists — prime recruitment targets because they possess sensitive technical knowledge but face fewer professional constraints after leaving the company, the people said.

> Their recruitment was part of an aggressive drive China launched in 2019 for semiconductor experts working abroad, offering signing bonuses that started at 3 million yuan to 5 million yuan ($420,000 to $700,000) and home-purchase subsidies, according to a review of government policy documents.

I guess they won't leave China anyways. So what's to sanction...

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#26

Seems like demographics, AI, and tech parity are converging on a Taiwan takeover attempt in the 2027-2030 timeframe.

If China actually catches up and surpasses the West/TSMC in fab technology and production, I think they'd have a better option, which is simply flooding the world market with high-end chips and obliterating the Taiwanese economy. Eventually, joining an economically dominant China might become more palatable, or a necessity.

This would be more in-line with their strategy in other areas. Quietly massively improve technical capability and then utterly out-compete international competitors. They did this with solar, multicopters, are in progress with doing this with TVs, nuclear power, etc. War is expensive and destructive, it's easier and nicer to just negate the economic relevance of your opponents if you have the time and resources to do it (which they do).

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#27

Seems like demographics, AI, and tech parity are converging on a Taiwan takeover attempt in the 2027-2030 timeframe.

I know mass media keeps pounding this "eventual scenario" (manufacturing consent and all). Maybe it will happen, but the Chinese think on longer timelines than the ADHD West and are probably banking on A). Out-attriting, B). Out-innovating. If both happen, we might find ourselves with a situation where Taiwan voluntarily wants to align closer with China as the West flails.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#28

The knowledge came from former ASML employees. I wonder if countries will sanction these individuals given the geopolitical implications of their assistance.

It seems most of those ASML employees were already Chinese engineers. I doubt they would care if they got caught and had their careers restricted to China

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#29

The knowledge came from former ASML employees. I wonder if countries will sanction these individuals given the geopolitical implications of their assistance.

  The team includes recently retired, Chinese-born former ASML engineers and scientists — prime recruitment targets because they possess sensitive technical knowledge but face fewer professional constraints after leaving the company, the people said.
and

  Once inside, he recognized other former ASML colleagues who were also working under aliases and was instructed to use their fake names at work to maintain secrecy, the person said.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#30

With Nvidia scaling down their consumer GPU production [0] I wonder if we will see consumer GPUs shipping from China in the future. Western companies seem to be abandoning the consumer/prosumer market which will have bad implications for hobbyists and aspiring professionals down the line. [0] https://www.pcmag.com/news/nvidia-might-cut-rtx-50-gpu-suppl...

If that happens, hardware trust becomes non-verifiable.

We will also see talent pipeline erosion.

Just further Western industrial policy failure.

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