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Is it a bubble?

oaktreecapital.com

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Re: Is it a bubble?

#21

Post by jonwinstanley »

sosborn wrote: post #14
jbstack wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, a bubble just means that it's over-valued and that at some point there will be a significant correction in stock values. It doesn't mean that the thing is inherently worthless.

A great example is the DotCom bubble. Wiped out a lot of capital but it really did transform the world.

But also, a lot of the dot com companies that people invested in in 1999 went bust, meaning those specific investments went to zero even if the web as a whole was a huge success financially.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#22

Post by brazukadev »

rprend wrote: post #18
sp4cec0wb0y wrote: post #7

> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?

AI writes most of the code for most new YC companies, as of this year.

That explains the low quality of all launch HN this year

Re: Is it a bubble?

#24

Post by block_dagger »

sp4cec0wb0y wrote: post #7

> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?

I'm on a team like this currently. It's great when everyone knows how to use the tools and spot/kill slop and bad context. Generally speaking, good code gets merged and MUCH more quickly than in the past.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#26

Post by whoknowsidont »

sp4cec0wb0y wrote: post #7

> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?

It's not. And if your team is doing this you're not "advanced."

Lots of people are outing themselves these days about the complexity of their jobs, or lack thereof.

Which is great! But it's not a +1 for AI, it's a -1 for them.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#27

Post by sethammons »

sp4cec0wb0y wrote: post #7

> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?

At $WORK, we have a bot that integrates with Slack that sets up minor PRs. Adjusting tf, updating endpoints, adding simple handlers. It does pretty well.

Also in a case of just prose to code, Claude wrote up a concurrent data migration utility in Go. When I reviewed it, it wasn't managing goroutines or waitgroups well, and the whole thing was a buggy mess and could not be gracefully killed. I would have written it faster by hand, no doubt. I think I know more now and the calculus may be shifting on my AI usage. However, the following day, my colleague needed a nearly identical temporary tool. A 45 minute session with Claude of "copy this thing but do this other stuff" easily saved them 6-8 hours of work. And again, that was just talking with Claude.

I am doing a hybrid approach really. I write much of my scaffolding, I write example code, I modify quick things the ai made to be more like I want, I set up guard rails and some tests then have the ai go to town. Results are mixed but trending up still.

FWIW, our CEO has declared us to be AI-first, so we are to leverage AI in everything we do which I think is misguided. But you can bet they will be reviewing AI usage metrics and lower wont be better at $WORK.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#28

Post by MarkusQ »

bossyTeacher wrote: post #15

The problem is that people conflate the current wave of transformer based ANNs with AI (as a whole). AI certainly has the potential to disrupt employment of humans. Transformers as they exist today not so much. AI's potential isn't defined by the potential of the current crop of transformers. However, many people seem to think otherwise and this will be incredibly damaging for AI as a whole once transformer tech inve…

It's a recurring phenomena, c.f. "AI winter" and the cycle before and after.

We're too easily fooled by our mistaken models of the problem, it's difficulty, and what constitutes progress, so are perpetually fooled by the latest, greatest "ladder to the moon" effort.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#29

Post by puchatek »

catigula wrote: post #6

>I find the resulting outlook for employment terrifying. I am enormously concerned about what will happen to the people whose jobs AI renders unnecessary, or who can’t find jobs because of it. The optimists argue that “new jobs have always materialized after past technological advances.” I hope that’ll hold true in the case of AI, but hope isn’t much to hang one’s hat on, and I have trouble figuring out where those j…

And i am so buying the vision of Elon using AI to give me free stuff. He just gives off this enormous altruistic energy.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#30

Post by nickorlow »

rprend wrote: post #18
sp4cec0wb0y wrote: post #7

> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?

AI writes most of the code for most new YC companies, as of this year.

I think this is is less significant b/c

1. Most of these companies are AI companies & would want to say that to promote whatever tool they're building

2. Selection b/c YC is looking to fund companies embracing AI

3. Building a greenfield project with AI to the quality of what you need to be a YC-backed company isn't particularly "world-class"

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