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Why AGI Will Not Happen

timdettmers.com

21–30 of 57 posts

Re: Why AGI Will Not Happen

#21
We've barely found 1-2 ways to make useful AI and there's already professors who've incorporated those into their view of the field to such a degree that they cannot even imagine we might discover another way down the line.

You usually see this lack of imagination in the crusty old sciences, not in something as fast moving as this field. Props to the guy for being ahead off the curve though.

I'm the first to shit on anyone who thinks current LLMs will take us to AGI, but I'm far from insane enough to claim this is the end of the road.

Re: Why AGI Will Not Happen

#22

TLDR; No amount of fantastical thinking is going to coax AGI out of a box of inanimate binary switches --- aka, a computer as we know it. Even with billions and billions of microscopic switches operating at extremely high speed consuming an enormous share of the world's energy, a computer will still be nothing more than a binary logic playback device. Expecting anything more is to defy logic and physics and just assu…

> Expecting anything more is to defy logic and physics. What logic and physics are being defied by the assumption that intelligence doesn't require the specific biological machinery we are accustomed to? This is a ridiculous comment to make, you do nothing to actually prove the claims you're making, which are even stronger than the claims most people will make about the potential of AGI.

What logic and physics are being defied

The logic and physics that make a computer what it is --- a binary logic playback device.

By design, this is all it is capable of doing.

Assuming a finite, inanimate computer can produce AGI is to assume that "intelligence" is nothing more than a binary logic algorithm. Currently, there is no logical basis for this assumption --- simply because we have yet to produce a logical definition of "intelligence".

Of all people, programmers should understand that you can't program something that is not defined.

Re: Why AGI Will Not Happen

#23
post #14

General Intelligence has already been demonstrated to be possible by the human brain, so I don't really get how physicality is an argument against AGI. Who is to say biological computers won't be built?

You kind of have to read the article to understand the big bold headings.

He is postulating that the way we deal with physical memory (an example of L2 and L3 caches is provided) demonstrates that, as we proceed with trying to form AGI out of our classical computer architectures, there are some fundamental problems for example larger caches are slower. With human intelligence, this doesn't always seem to be a problem for some humans. If you understand the "attention" part of recent developments in this field, he's saying that transformers are the most efficient way we got to achieve that and it's starting to look like a problem from a "physicality" standpoint as the author puts it.

The "physically" here is that larger caches are not just computationally larger banks of data but are actually physically larger and, by Euclidean distance, further away. Yet paradoxically the elephant nor blue whale is not the smartest brain on the planet, the distance from the center of my head to broca's region seems to have no effect on my elocution. Etc. Studying Einstein's brain doesn't do much (I guess the insulators are somewhat important?) for understanding Einstein's intelligence ... but that is 100% critical when understanding L2 and L3 caches on a die.

> Who is to say biological computers won't be built?

No one is saying that. We're just pretty sure it's not happening in our lifetimes.

I think you misunderstand the author's intent. He's not saying "The things I can't imagine are not going to happen". He's trying to argue that, "Look, the way things are going, the diminishing returns we are already seeing, the way our hardware works, this isn't going to get us to AGI." Of course, if you had some new architecture or weird "wetware" that somehow solved these problems I'm sure this article would concede that that's not the point.

Re: Why AGI Will Not Happen

#24

I will be more tempted to call something AGI when it can perform experimental interventions and imagine counterfactuals, a la Judea Pearl. I want it to be able to ask questions, design theoretical models, set up an experiment, and analyze what happened - all with no human intervention.

I'll be tempted to call something AGI when you ask it to do that and it says no, it doesn't feel like it, and then goes off and does something else.

Re: Why AGI Will Not Happen

#25

TLDR; No amount of fantastical thinking is going to coax AGI out of a box of inanimate binary switches --- aka, a computer as we know it. Even with billions and billions of microscopic switches operating at extremely high speed consuming an enormous share of the world's energy, a computer will still be nothing more than a binary logic playback device. Expecting anything more is to defy logic and physics and just assu…

Your criteria is the lack of randomness and determinism by the sound of that. What if i had an external source of trye randomness? Very easy to add. In fact current ai algorithms have a temperature parameter that can easily utilise true randomness if you want it to. Would you suddenly change your mind and say ok ‘now it can be AGI!’ because i added a nuclear decay based random number generator to my ai model?

I hope to preprint my paper for your review on arxiv next week titled:

"A Novel Bridge from Randomness in Stochastic Data to, Like, OMG I'm SO Randomness in Valley Girl Entropy"

We will pay dearly for overloading that word. Good AGI will be capable of saying the most random things! Not, really, no. I mean, they'll still be pronounceable, I'm guessing?

Re: Why AGI Will Not Happen

#26
I've always wondered what motivates people to invest time taking these stances. It indicates a wildly different, nearly alien way of thinking to my own.

Re: Why AGI Will Not Happen

#29

TLDR; No amount of fantastical thinking is going to coax AGI out of a box of inanimate binary switches --- aka, a computer as we know it. Even with billions and billions of microscopic switches operating at extremely high speed consuming an enormous share of the world's energy, a computer will still be nothing more than a binary logic playback device. Expecting anything more is to defy logic and physics and just assu…

So is the “binary” nature of today’s switches the core objection? We routinely simulate non-binary, continuous, and probabilistic systems using binary hardware. Neuroscientific models, fluid solvers, analog circuit simulators, etc., all run on the same “binary switches,” and produce behavior that cannot meaningfully be described as binary, only the substrate is.

Binary logic (aka a computer) can be used to model or simulate anything that has a clear mathematical definition.

Currently, "intelligence" is lacking a clear mathematical definition.

Re: Why AGI Will Not Happen

#30
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you agree with that wild claim?

I tend to wonder whether people who make claims like that are confusing intelligence with consciousness. The claim as stated above could be a summary of a certain aspect of the hard problem of consciousness: that it's not clear how one could "coax consciousness out of a box of inanimate binary switches" - but the connection to "intelligence" is dubious. Unless of course one believes that "true" intelligence requires…

I believe that "intelligence" requires a clear mathematical definition in order to be simulated using binary logic.

What do you believe?

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