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I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

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21–30 of 65 posts

Re: I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

#21
post #19

"OpenAI rejected me so the entire industry is going to collapse" is certainly a take. They are still probably one of the less arrogant engineers in silicon valley.

There’s no sour grapes in this article. I went in expecting the same but found that the author actually makes a good point.

Re: I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

#22
post #19

"OpenAI rejected me so the entire industry is going to collapse" is certainly a take. They are still probably one of the less arrogant engineers in silicon valley.

There’s no sour grapes in this article. I went in expecting the same but found that the author actually makes a good point.

It isn't really. The assumption that these companies aren't hiring any infrastructure engineers is absurd. They all have massive in-house teams doing GPU optimization and everything else that the author brings up. They just don't need an external consultant for it.

Re: I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

#23
post #19

"OpenAI rejected me so the entire industry is going to collapse" is certainly a take. They are still probably one of the less arrogant engineers in silicon valley.

There are people who are experts in a generalist sense. When a new field opens up, they quickly snatch up the opportunity and make immense progress and name for themselves in the evolving field. So in this case the first author is the mouse who ate the cheese and died.

Re: I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

#24

This is just not correct. Also nobody is making optimization startups because if you cared you’d have an in house team working on it.

There are a few "optimization startups". But in this context I find it a bit ironic that pretty much everyone is working with the same architecture, and the same hardware for the most part, so actually there isn't really that much demand for bespoke optimizations.

Those that are serious are paying through the nose for their engineers to work on these optimizations. Your competitor working on "the same hardware" does not magically make your MFU go up.

Re: I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

#25
post #8

If they optimize though - and this is coming at some point - local AI becomes possible, and their entire business case as a cloud monopoly evaporates. I think they know they're in a race between centralized control, and widespread use and control, and that is what is really driving this.

Yes, if you see the LLM as a compressed dictionary of all available information. But if they succeed with agentic reasoning models (we are absolutly not there yet) then I think meritocracy will be replaced with assetocracy. The better the model, the more expensive it will be and the better the software will be. I don’t worry about it myself, but I do worry for my kids. Im not even sure what to teach them anymore to h…

Teach them basic financial literacy. The time value of money, the power of compounding, the relationship between risk and expected returns. Grade school does not cover any of this.

It does not matter what your income is if you cannot budget and save.

Re: I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

#26
post #19

"OpenAI rejected me so the entire industry is going to collapse" is certainly a take. They are still probably one of the less arrogant engineers in silicon valley.

That's not the take?

The take is that small incremental improvements on the hardware-software at that scale imply massive returns yet there isn't much work for that use case.

Re: I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

#27
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s no sour grapes in this article. I went in expecting the same but found that the author actually makes a good point.

It isn't really. The assumption that these companies aren't hiring any infrastructure engineers is absurd. They all have massive in-house teams doing GPU optimization and everything else that the author brings up. They just don't need an external consultant for it.

He didn't say they aren't hiring _any_ but that they are hiring few and that he finds it strange that despite his multi-decades record of squeezing performance on the gpu-software stack he isn't getting much collaboration proposals.

Re: I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

#28

It's good that you didn't give up ! So i understand correctly,they spend more even thought They can, optimize and spend less ?

I believe the author is making the point that the companies spending all this money on hardware aren't concerned at all with how the hardware is actually used. Optimization isn't even being considered because its the total cost spent on hardware that is the goal, not output from the hardware.

But can that really be the case? It takes a long time to train and tune the models, any small, even low % digit of squeezing more implies much faster iteration.

Re: I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

#29

This is just not correct. Also nobody is making optimization startups because if you cared you’d have an in house team working on it.

That is unfortunate, because these are special skills you may but find inhouse. I know some guys that did it inhouse for a long time, toured from project to project in the right phase and saved bigcorp lots of money. Now they are doing it publicly. https://efficientware.net/how-we-work/

Usually large companies attract or develop these skills by their scale. I do think there a lot of smaller companies that are underserved in this area, though.

Re: I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

#30

I see a lot of comments here criticizing the author, and I think both teams have a point. There's definitely a bubble, because companies are buying up infrastructure which doesn't need to be used right now. But also, the companies are buying up this infrastructure because whoever controls the infrastructure also controls the industry in around 5 years time.

> There's definitely a bubble, because companies are buying up infrastructure which doesn't need to be used right now.

Source? Satya Nadella seems to disagree with your statement (at least as I understand both): https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-ceo-satya-nadell...

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