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Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

dwarkesh.com

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Re: Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

#21

Post by alyxya »

gizmodo59 wrote: post #5

Even as criticism targets major model providers, his inability to answer clearly about revenue & dismissing it as a future concern reveals a great deal about today's market. It's remarkable how effortlessly he, Mira, and others secure billions, confident they can thrive in such an intensely competitive field. Without a moat defined by massive user bases, computing resources, or data, any breakthrough your researchers…

They have a moat defined by being well known in the AI industry, so they have credibility and it wouldn't be hard for anything they make to gain traction. Some unknown player who replicates it, even if it was just as good as what SSI does, will struggle a lot more with gaining attention.

Re: Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

#22

Post by camillomiller »

piker wrote: post #14
SilverElfin wrote: post #7

How did Dwarkesh manage to build a brand that can attract famous people to his podcast? He didn’t have prior fame from something else in research or business, right? Curious if anyone knows his growth strategy to get here.

Seems like he’s Lex without the Rogan association so hardcore liberal folks can listen without having to buy morality offsets. He’s good, and he’s filling a void in an established underserved genre is my take.

Fridman is a morally broken grifter, who just built a persona and a brand on proven lies, claiming an association with MIT that was de facto non-existent. Not wanting to give the guy recognition is not a matter of being liberal or conservative, but just interested in truthfulness.

Re: Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

#23

Post by TheBlight »

alyxya wrote: post #18

The impactful innovations in AI these days aren't really from scaling models to be larger. It's more concrete to show higher benchmark scores, and this implies higher intelligence, but this higher intelligence doesn't necessarily translate to all users feeling like the model has significantly improved for their use case. Models sometimes still struggle with simple questions like counting letters in a word, and most p…

"Scaling" is going to eventually apply to the ability to run more and higher fidelity simulations such that AI can run experiments and gather data about the world as fast and as accurately as possible. Pre-training is mostly dead. The corresponding compute spend will be orders of magnitude higher.

Re: Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

#24

Post by jonny_eh »

luke5441 wrote: post #15
gizmodo59 wrote: post #5

Even as criticism targets major model providers, his inability to answer clearly about revenue & dismissing it as a future concern reveals a great deal about today's market. It's remarkable how effortlessly he, Mira, and others secure billions, confident they can thrive in such an intensely competitive field. Without a moat defined by massive user bases, computing resources, or data, any breakthrough your researchers…

He's just doing research with some grant money? Why would you ask a researcher for a path to profitability? I just hope the people funding his company are aware that they gave some grant money to some researchers.

Exactly, as far as anyone outside of the deal participants knows, Ilya hasn't made any promises with respect to revenue.

Re: Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

#26

Post by fragmede »

piker wrote: post #14
SilverElfin wrote: post #7

How did Dwarkesh manage to build a brand that can attract famous people to his podcast? He didn’t have prior fame from something else in research or business, right? Curious if anyone knows his growth strategy to get here.

Seems like he’s Lex without the Rogan association so hardcore liberal folks can listen without having to buy morality offsets. He’s good, and he’s filling a void in an established underserved genre is my take.

Tell me more about these morality offsets I can buy! I got a bunch of friends that listen to Joe Rogan, so I listen to him to know what they're talking about, but I've been doing so without these offsets, so my morality's been taking hits. Please help me before I make a human trafficking app for Andrew Tate!

Re: Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

#28

Post by wahnfrieden »

camillomiller wrote: post #22
piker wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like he’s Lex without the Rogan association so hardcore liberal folks can listen without having to buy morality offsets. He’s good, and he’s filling a void in an established underserved genre is my take.

Fridman is a morally broken grifter, who just built a persona and a brand on proven lies, claiming an association with MIT that was de facto non-existent. Not wanting to give the guy recognition is not a matter of being liberal or conservative, but just interested in truthfulness.

Patel takes anticommunism to such an extreme that he repeatedly brings up and speculates (despite being met with repudiation by even the staunchest anticommunist of guests) whether naziism is preferable, that Hitler should have the war against Soviets, that the US should have collaborated with Hitler to defeat communism, and that the enduring spread of naziism would have been a good tradeoff to make.

Re: Ilya Sutskever: We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

#29

Post by FergusArgyll »

eats_indigo wrote: post #17

did he just say locomotion came from squirrels

I think he was referencing something Richard Sutton said (iirc); along the lines of "If we can get to the intelligence of a squirrel, we're most of the way there"
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