One statement in there grates: the idea that there never was a big population drop before.
We know it from genetic records that human population dropped to a very low number. The human population bottleneck around 70,000 years ago, ie Toba supervolcano eruption, with 1,000 to 10,000 breeding individuals. There may have been other humans around, their lines all died out.
Are We Doomed?
21–30 of 73 posts
Re: Are We Doomed?
#22One statement in there grates: the idea that there never was a big population drop before. We know it from genetic records that human population dropped to a very low number. The human population bottleneck around 70,000 years ago, ie Toba supervolcano eruption, with 1,000 to 10,000 breeding individuals. There may have been other humans around, their lines all died out.
From TFA:
> Because Homo sapiens went through a series of near extinction level events before eventually triumphing – periodically reduced to a few thousand surviving members clinging on in a handful of African enclaves – we have very little genetic variation. The human family tree spreads out from a few individuals to encompass all of us.
Re: Are We Doomed?
#23stage left exit homo economicus stage right enter homo paganicus, accompanied by those twins homo philosiphus and homo philobaccus pass the wine around. True story, I took a course in environmental microbiology, and at a certain point, the instructor had a slide titled, "Ideal Conditions for Reproduction" and below that the words, "A Swiss Chalet on a cold night, a bottle of wine, and a warm fireplace"
In other words: no pressure.
Pressure seems to be another factor why many women don't have kids. That and mixed messages about what constitutes a good person and not being told that your fertility starts tanking after 30
Re: Are We Doomed?
#24One statement in there grates: the idea that there never was a big population drop before. We know it from genetic records that human population dropped to a very low number. The human population bottleneck around 70,000 years ago, ie Toba supervolcano eruption, with 1,000 to 10,000 breeding individuals. There may have been other humans around, their lines all died out.
How do we know there was only 1,000-10,000 individuals, 70,000 years ago?
Re: Are We Doomed?
#25Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, it wont: Population statistics are among the most robust & stable one and one with the most accurate data that we have across the globe. Populatoin statistics are running reaaaallly slow - on that one day when you see the decrease in the graph, it is already too late.
Demographers can predict when people are going to die but they have no way to predict how many children they will have. They have been getting it wrong for a long time, assuming that the gradual decrease in birthrate will stop, only to be proven wrong. They can't just extrapolate assuming that birth rates will keep dropping since that would reduce the birthrate to 0. So they do the next best thing and assume it will…
...you have additional things sperm quality drop etc...
No - this time it is really different :-)
(apart from things like climate change etc.)
Re: Are We Doomed?
#26Human history is full of this ridiculous hand-wringing over nothing. some people don't actually do shit, just sit around pointing fingers and nitpicking. They skip the real work of digging into social change and fixate on surface-level bullshit. The fertility rate mess really boils down to just two core reasons: in fancy democratic developed countries, folks are so damn self-absorbed that the whole system screws over…
> folks are so damn self-absorbed that the whole system screws over regular people and kills their vibe for having kids.
Or maybe, just maybe,having kids just isnt that great and people (and especially women) are finally realising it.
Re: Are We Doomed?
#27Human history is full of this ridiculous hand-wringing over nothing. some people don't actually do shit, just sit around pointing fingers and nitpicking. They skip the real work of digging into social change and fixate on surface-level bullshit. The fertility rate mess really boils down to just two core reasons: in fancy democratic developed countries, folks are so damn self-absorbed that the whole system screws over…
> folks are so damn self-absorbed that the whole system screws over regular people and kills their vibe for having kids. Or maybe, just maybe,having kids just isnt that great and people (and especially women) are finally realising it.
> Or maybe, just maybe,having kids just isnt that great and people (and especially women) are finally realising it.
Reproduction's a straight-up genetic instinct in humans. You're basically talking about something so screwed up that it makes people straight-up ignore their built-in drive to have kids.
Re: Are We Doomed?
#28Human history is full of this ridiculous hand-wringing over nothing. some people don't actually do shit, just sit around pointing fingers and nitpicking. They skip the real work of digging into social change and fixate on surface-level bullshit. The fertility rate mess really boils down to just two core reasons: in fancy democratic developed countries, folks are so damn self-absorbed that the whole system screws over…
your suggestion of "socialize childcare big-time" is tried in EU, countries like sweden offers the best support of families and yet are parley getting the numbers up without immigration, the root of the drop is the change of women role in society, finding a political sweet spot is required, if women get a salary from the government when they have more than 3 kids then it might encourage families to take the big step…
I mean a more radical fix. Like, some kinda government-run breeding facility where folks drop off their newborns right after birth, and the state takes over raising 'em with standardized management and training. Then, once the kids are past the heavy-care phase, hand 'em back full-time to the parents.
Re: Are We Doomed?
#29My feeling is that birth rate could be solved in properly authoritarian country. With policies that won't fit to most "western" schemes.
Ban birth control pill
Ban Abortion
Largely limit social media
Subsidize recreational activities like bars and other such drugs
After people have accidental kids, they will figure out the food, housing and so on.
Re: Are We Doomed?
#30One statement in there grates: the idea that there never was a big population drop before. We know it from genetic records that human population dropped to a very low number. The human population bottleneck around 70,000 years ago, ie Toba supervolcano eruption, with 1,000 to 10,000 breeding individuals. There may have been other humans around, their lines all died out.
How do we know there was only 1,000-10,000 individuals, 70,000 years ago?
I was wondering the same question, and IIRC it's due to the DNA diversity we have today. This is roughly calculated with the successive generations of humans and accounting possible mutations.