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The Milky Way is probably full of dead civilizations

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Re: The Milky Way is probably full of dead civilizations

#21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The radius of the observable universe is 45.7 billion light-years. The universe is approximately 13.8 billion years old. Primates evolved only six million years ago. So let's be charitable and say it took only 13 billion years for a lifeform capable of transmitting radio waves to evolve. Unless I'm missing something, if we're listening for ETs, we would only have visibility into a sphere with a radius around 1/45th t…

Primates evolved six million years ago here . There are plenty of stars billions of years older than our sun (and still sufficiently enriched with heavy elements from prior stellar generations) where they could have, so that their signals would have reached us by now. The past light cone is everything you see in the sky. Even a million light-years from neighboring galaxies is small compared to the time scale of possi…

  Primates evolved six million years ago here. There are plenty of stars [...] older than our sun [...] where they could have
Fair enough. If we're certain a star billions of years older then ours could have the same conditions that would support evolution, then my comment is unlikely.

I, embarrassingly, have a crackpot theory where G isn't a constant. I'll spare HN; it would make me sound like a moron.

Re: The Milky Way is probably full of dead civilizations

#22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Define "technological". We've recently accepted that there are several tool-using species other than us. We have a head start on other apes, but they might catch up if we weren't in the picture. If octopi stopped dying so young, they might give us a run for our money. Orcas have fashion trends ("did you see Becky's dead salmon hat? I'm getting one of those!"). Mess with corvids at your own risk.

From a technological point of view, the main distinctive feature of humans has not been the use of tools, which is relatively widespread among animals, but the control of fire. The control of fire is what has enabled humans to produce and use new classes of materials that all other living beings are unable to make, e.g. ceramics, metals, glasses, cements, thermoplastics and thermosets, various kinds of crystals, incl…

> From a technological point of view, the main distinctive feature of humans has not been the use of tools, which is relatively widespread among animals, but the control of fire.

> The control of fire is what has enabled humans to […]

… on Earth with an iron-nickel core and an oxygen rich atmosphere, with easy access to vasts of low energy density organic material (dead trees) and higher density energy source (coal). Either of the two can be literally picked up from the surface, which was even more important for ancient civilisations.

But mastery of combustion is just one successful path, not a universal prerequisite. What matters is access to controllable high energy densities and redox chemistry that can extract, shape and join structural and conductive materials. On many plausible worlds those needs could be met without fire. Fir instance:

  1. Native metals and cold working – worlds rich in native copper, silver or gold from hydrothermal deposition or reducing atmospheres allow metal use with no smelting. Cold hammering, annealing on warm geothermal surfaces, and pressure-sintering can produce wire, sheet and simple tools. Meteoric iron is another route to early ironwork by cold forging.

  2. Electrochemical extraction at ambient temperatures – acidic or chloride brines can leach Cu²⁺, Ag⁺, Zn²⁺ and similar ions that can be plated onto seed cathodes. Electricity could come from: a) galvanic piles built from naturally dissimilar minerals in a brine; b) tidal, wind or river generators driven by simple turbines; c) lightning harvesting into capacitors, then steady discharge into plating cells. This is essentially solvent-extraction and electrowinning without a firebox.

  3. Solar furnaces without flames – on oxygen-less or thin-oxygen worlds with intense sun, arrays of polished stone, mica sheets or vitrified sand mirrors can reach smelting temperatures. Early optics need not be metallic – glazed ceramics and transparent minerals suffice – so a civilisation could jump straight to photothermal metallurgy.

  4. Non-combustive chemical heat – highly exothermic mixtures – thermite-class reactions and metal sulphide or halide reductions – release smelting-grade heat once initiated. On halogen-rich worlds, fluorides or chlorides could be reduced by hydrogen or metals to yield both heat and purified product. This is chemistry as furnace.

  5. Under-ice or ocean worlds – combustion may be impossible, yet hydrothermal chimneys deposit native metals and sulphides. Technology could develop around: a) ceramic and glassworking using geothermal heat; b) galvanic circuits using sulphide–metal couples in seawater for plating; c) arc heating from captured lightning or magnetospheric induction to melt and weld underwater.

  6. Biological ore upgrading and metal precipitation – an interesting idea to entertain as microbial consortia already leach copper and gold on Earth at ambient temperatures. Projecting further, an alien biosphere could be domesticated to: a) acidify heaps and liberate ions from ore; b) reduce and precipitate metals onto templates for near-net-shape parts; c) grow conductive biomaterials that substitute for early copper wiring. Biometallurgy can start well below 100 °C and scale industrially.
We should also not entirely dismiss a possibility of material alternatives that postpone, or even replace, metallurgy – advanced ceramics, glasses, cements, laminated woods and fibre composites can carry a civilisation far – structural engineering, containers, even turbines and high-temperature reactors. Conductive paths can begin with graphite, sulphides and native copper; semiconducting minerals such as galena enable primitive electronics. Metallurgy may arrive later or remain niche.

None of the above is outside the constructs of the laws of physics and chemistry, and, most assuredly, the suggested alternatives are not crack pot theories or hard code science fiction – provided the local environment has favourable conditions that meet one or multiple criteria. Even more so if an alien civilisation had an earlier head start – modern humans have only been around for 200 thousand years circa (we won't include the earlier hominid forms), and if another civilisation could have started advancing «just» 1 billion years earlier, they would have had a luxury of progressing steadily even if at a slower pace.

To sum it up, none of the above requires fire for a hypothetical extraterristrial civilisation to advance. Fire was the proverbial low-hanging fruit and the path of the least resistance, so the early humans enthusiastically adopted it given that the terrestrial environment favoured and «encouraged» the use of fire, so to speak.

Re: The Milky Way is probably full of dead civilizations

#23

It seems equally likely to me that conditions in the Universe just weren't amenable to life until relatively recently. Radio waves take time to travel; there could be many civilisations out there whose signals haven't had time to reach us. If that's the case, we're just the first intelligent civilisation to evolve in our immediate vicinity.

Isn’t it likely that radio waves beyond a certain distance will just become indistinguishable from background noise? They’re travelling hundreds of thousands if not more light years

Radio waves beyond a certain level of sophistication may not be very obvioualy artificial either. AM vs FM vs QAM vs ??? Add spread spectrum and maybe more efficient radiator patterns / beam forming. I suspect we won't be emitting much that would be likely detectable after the end of this century, so maybe a 200 year window. I asusume other radio capable life would perform similarly. If that's the case, chances are slim that their 200 years of detectable emissions overlap our ability to detect the detectable.

Re: The Milky Way is probably full of dead civilizations

#24
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. Microbes have been around for a long time. And there are more of them today than there are stars in the sky. No intelligence required. Plus they change so fast that what Life looked like yday can look totally different tomorrow. As Lynn Margulis would say the chimps aren't the main show. Intelligence maybe an over rated and very buggy feature of Life. And the bugs get amplified as the minds interact with…

If that's the case, we're just the first intelligent civilisation or civilisation of radio-wave-emitting bugs to evolve in our immediate vicinity. :)

Neutrino sources outside of stars / stellar-like objects would be a dead giveaway of either unexplained physics or nuclear fusion / fission technology, and much harder / impossible to hide than EM tech.

We should look for those.

Re: The Milky Way is probably full of dead civilizations

#25
What continues to vex me is the tedious inevitability with which hypothetical extraterrestrial civilisations are assessed through the narrow prism of human failings – namely, self-destruction and aggression. Intelligence, a term we are so fond of bandying about, encompasses a spectrum of attributes, yet it is fundamentally anchored in two core tenets: logic and reason. An entity truly in possession of such faculties would, by necessity, also cultivate the ability to prevent its own annihilation – or the obliteration of others – in the face of tension or conflict. This, naturally, is a lesson the species inhabiting this planet has yet to comprehend, let alone apply.

It is hardly inconceivable that another world might offer an abundance of energy and materials so vast that the primitive notion of competition becomes irrelevant – an absence that would, I imagine, deeply offend the instincts of Earth’s more belligerent inhabitants.

Unless humanity is prepared to extricate itself from its parochial assumptions and entertain the possibility of wildly divergent modes of existence, it is unlikely we shall ever encounter a species with whom a meaningful exchange is even possible. Worse still – though entirely within the realm of plausibility – we may one day confront a civilisation whose moral and ethical framework is so colossally alien to our own that the mere act of contact would not enlighten, but unsettle, fracture and shatter.

Re: The Milky Way is probably full of dead civilizations

#26
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From a technological point of view, the main distinctive feature of humans has not been the use of tools, which is relatively widespread among animals, but the control of fire. The control of fire is what has enabled humans to produce and use new classes of materials that all other living beings are unable to make, e.g. ceramics, metals, glasses, cements, thermoplastics and thermosets, various kinds of crystals, incl…

> From a technological point of view, the main distinctive feature of humans has not been the use of tools, which is relatively widespread among animals, but the control of fire . > The control of fire is what has enabled humans to […] … on Earth with an iron-nickel core and an oxygen rich atmosphere, with easy access to vasts of low energy density organic material (dead trees) and higher density energy source (coal)…

if you include the earlier hominid forms, of which they were able to continue interbreeding, then you’re talking about 600k to maybe (likely not) 1 mya!

Re: The Milky Way is probably full of dead civilizations

#27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't likely. The Milky Way is 100k light years in diameter. That's tiny relative to the age of life. Animals comparable to humans in complexity have existed for something like 250 million years on Earth, and could have on planets of stars that formed billions of years before our sun. The possible timespan for signal-emitting life to have developed is many multiples of the timespan that signals take to cross the…

The radius of the observable universe is 45.7 billion light-years. The universe is approximately 13.8 billion years old. Primates evolved only six million years ago. So let's be charitable and say it took only 13 billion years for a lifeform capable of transmitting radio waves to evolve. Unless I'm missing something, if we're listening for ETs, we would only have visibility into a sphere with a radius around 1/45th t…

[deleted]

Re: The Milky Way is probably full of dead civilizations

#28

It seems equally likely to me that conditions in the Universe just weren't amenable to life until relatively recently. Radio waves take time to travel; there could be many civilisations out there whose signals haven't had time to reach us. If that's the case, we're just the first intelligent civilisation to evolve in our immediate vicinity.

From our 1 datapoint set I’m leaning towards the “earth is an aberration” theory. This was a dinosaur planet. There was a reset some time ago that cleared the path for mammals. It’s unlikely that this timing is common.

Re: The Milky Way is probably full of dead civilizations

#29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't likely. The Milky Way is 100k light years in diameter. That's tiny relative to the age of life. Animals comparable to humans in complexity have existed for something like 250 million years on Earth, and could have on planets of stars that formed billions of years before our sun. The possible timespan for signal-emitting life to have developed is many multiples of the timespan that signals take to cross the…

The radius of the observable universe is 45.7 billion light-years. The universe is approximately 13.8 billion years old. Primates evolved only six million years ago. So let's be charitable and say it took only 13 billion years for a lifeform capable of transmitting radio waves to evolve. Unless I'm missing something, if we're listening for ETs, we would only have visibility into a sphere with a radius around 1/45th t…

The article calls out that «the probability of life emerging based on known factors peaked about 13,000 light-years from the galactic center and 8 billion years after the galaxy formed».

A hypothetical civilisation may well have emerged with a head start of five billion years – a span of time sufficiently vast to allow for profound advancement, assuming favourable conditions and uninterrupted development.

However, I find the oft-repeated assertion – that alien civilisations have likely annihilated themselves due to traits as tediously predictable as short-sightedness, internal strife or some anthropocentric parody of self-sabotage – to be both intellectually lazy and philosophically barren. such a narrative reveals far more about the limitations of the human imagination than it does about the potential trajectories of alien life.

A more measured and plausible explanation lies not in self-inflicted extinction, but in the nature of the galaxy itself. Five or more billion years ago, the Milky Way could have been a significantly less hospitable environment – more unstable, more violent, and subject to higher stellar activity. One must also consider the precariousness of location: the galactic core, unlike the relative quietude of our outer spiral arm, is a congested and perilous stellar thoroughfare, far less conducive to the emergence and persistence of complex life.

To default to the notion of civilisational self-destruction is to betray a lack of imagination – or worse, a projection of our own inadequacies onto the cosmos.

Re: The Milky Way is probably full of dead civilizations

#30
I read a paper a long while back that used purely numerical arguments to first show a common rate in the growth of complexity across biological and non-biological systems under similar conditions. It then plotted this exponential growth backwards in time, showing that life's origins were prior to the formation of earth by about 1.5 billion years. No guesswork, it was quite solid; the same math applied to human technology traces back to roughly its known start on earth. It was convincing that life is prolific in the universe but intellgent life took about 6-9 billion years to go from single cell to us.
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