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Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

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Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#21
post #16
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm legitimately curious what his overall performance is. Are those just cherry picked trades?

His wins were quite big so I’d imagine he’s doing really well overall

Is there anything more concrete than that? Large wins on their own aren't meaningful if they aren't good risk adjusted trades or repeatable. I've made big wins but I don't consider myself a good trader.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#22
post #6

how to do such betting ?

Get a brokerage account that allows CFD. Know what is a margin call. Greenhorns usually get wiped out.

Note: you pay overnight swap fees or similar for holding a position. "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#23

Palantir's valuation is far more egregious than Nvidia's. Palantir is Becky (IBM) with the good hair.

> 5 million Palantir shares worth $912 million, and 1 million Nvidia shares worth $187 million

The Nvidia trade is a rounding error compared to Palantir (which looks a bit oversized given it is 1/400th of the entire market cap)

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#24

Palantir's valuation is far more egregious than Nvidia's. Palantir is Becky (IBM) with the good hair.

You're betting against a middle-east Marshall Plan and AIPAC lobbyists vs. a company that just set up its AI industrial Hub in Europe and has some serious compute-engine hosting cost sticker-shock incoming. As far as I can see, shorting Thiel is shorting Israel at the moment. Don't do it while Trump is in Cabinet and pressuring Tel Aviv to pardon Bibi.

SHORT SHORT SHORT. Someone has to pay the price for the G side.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes it an (almost) certainty?

Reminder that economist have predicted 9 of the past 7 recessions. General handwavy statements like "there's a bubble" aren't worth paying attention to. Ones with specific timelines attached to it (like the one above, or the article we're commenting on), are worth listening to a bit more, but unless they have the funds to back it up (like Michael Burry has put down here), it's still hot air.

Economist have predicted 179 of the past 7 recessions.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#26
post #6

how to do such betting ?

Ask an LLM how to short specific stocks.

I did exactly this last Friday as an experiment and Claude Sonnet 4.5 recommended that I go long in an inverse ETF lol. When I told it that was terrible advice, it apologized and suggested buying puts.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#27
post #6

how to do such betting ?

Not usually a good idea if you're not a skilled investor, but here's a place to start: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/sellingoptions.a...

thanks!

is my understanding right?

I make a PUT option on a stock for a price. This price is usually lower than the current market price of the stock.

1.When I do that, the premium amount is to be paid by me when i make the PUT option or I get paid while making the PUT option.

2. Do I have to pay upfront money before hand, while making the PUT option?

3. Is there a deadline for my PUT option. For example, if it doesn't happen, what form of loss do I experience?

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#28
Just because something is expensive doesn’t mean you should short it via puts as Burry had done. Both Palantir and Nvidia have high IVs. You’re paying for that. You’re much better off looking for cheaper puts on securities with enough correlation. Since Volmageddon and pandemic craze, deep OTM options have been scalped to death. Rarely good value. Nvidia also didn’t report earnings yet which means you’re paying for that risk event. Not saying bullish or bearish. It’s all speculation BOTH ways.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#29
post #6

how to do such betting ?

Not usually a good idea if you're not a skilled investor, but here's a place to start: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/sellingoptions.a...

Selling (writing) options is NOT how you bet against a company.

You either sell the stock short or buy puts.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#30
post #20

I'm not sure the bet is as big as it seems from the headline. When you buy options, you pay a fixed premium to get the right to buy/sell a very large value of shares, called the notional. But the notional is not what you are losing if it goes wrong, you lose the premium. The premium can be quite a small number compared to the notional.

You can check here: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649339/000164933925... Is this like what you say?

Not the OP. I agree with what OP is mentioning. As part of the report you have to file the notional value of the underlying stock. Let's assume I buy one put option for palantir at a price of $1/contract ( say for an extremely OTM strike price of $10 ). I have paid a premium of $100. Assuming stock price of palantir is $200, the notional value I have to report is $200*100 = $20k. And not the $100 premium I paid.
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