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AI Pullback Has Officially Started

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Re: AI Pullback Has Officially Started

#21

Post by lqstuart »

Madmallard wrote: post #15
moomoo11 wrote: post #7

AI (LLM) is useful for coding and I use it to lookup various articles or websites and summarize. Use it where it works.. ignore the agents hype and other bullshit peddled by 19yo dropouts. Unlike the 19yo dropouts of the 2010s these guys have brain rot and I don’t trust them after having talked to such people at start up events and getting their black pill takes. They have products that don’t work and lie about numbe…

On this website on another thread there is a principal software engineer at Microsoft who wrote an essay on how agent systems are amplifying all of the employees productivity massively even on large complex tasks.

“Principal” at Microsoft (or Oracle) is “Senior” or “Staff” everywhere else just fyi

Re: AI Pullback Has Officially Started

#22

Post by panny »

There are a lot of people invested in AI, so they are cheerleaders. There are way more people who didn't invest, who are sour grapes and want to see it fail. I'm neither of these people, but it's a democracy after all. I think AI is due for another winter.

Re: AI Pullback Has Officially Started

#24

Post by MarcusE1W »

panny wrote: post #22

There are a lot of people invested in AI, so they are cheerleaders. There are way more people who didn't invest, who are sour grapes and want to see it fail. I'm neither of these people, but it's a democracy after all. I think AI is due for another winter.

I think it's not as much a democracy as a market. We sometimes say people vote with their wallet on products, so I see where you come from.

Still, in this case I think a market analogy fits better. There are people who want it and people who don't want it. If the people with a lot of money (to manage for companies) want it, this will move the balance. If it eventually moves it enough remains to be seen. Decisions can be made with too much excitement and based on overpromises, but eventually someone will draw a bottom line under (generative) AI, the one where currently the huge amount of money gets pumped into. Either will generate generate value that people pay for and the investors make a profit or not. Bubbles and misconceptions can extend the time when the line is drawn, but eventually it will be.

If LLM and generative is generally creates value, or not, I cannot say. I am sure that the more specialised AI solutions that are better described as machine learning does create this value in their special use cases and will stay.

Re: AI Pullback Has Officially Started

#25

Post by sega_sai »

I find these sorts of takes to be tiresome. It is absolutely true there is a lot of hype around AI. Also it is true that many AI companies try to shove AI into everything without necessarily thinking wherer it is a good idea or whether it useful (talking to you Google). Notwithstanding this it is absolutely clear how transformational the technology is. For low skill tasks it can certainly substitute people and save a lot of time. For harder things one has to be more careful and the right model have to be used, i.e. it is not a silver bullet but just a powerful tool which means it needs to be used in conjunction with other tools

Re: AI Pullback Has Officially Started

#26

Post by bdangubic »

sega_sai wrote: post #25

I find these sorts of takes to be tiresome. It is absolutely true there is a lot of hype around AI. Also it is true that many AI companies try to shove AI into everything without necessarily thinking wherer it is a good idea or whether it useful (talking to you Google). Notwithstanding this it is absolutely clear how transformational the technology is. For low skill tasks it can certainly substitute people and save a…

takes are there cause AI is so bad that no one reads anything else orher than stories about how AI is so bad :)

Re: AI Pullback Has Officially Started

#27

Post by bdangubic »

FranzFerdiNaN wrote: post #19
Madmallard wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On this website on another thread there is a principal software engineer at Microsoft who wrote an essay on how agent systems are amplifying all of the employees productivity massively even on large complex tasks.

Now the question is whether that’s true (and thus should be objectively measurable) or if he is bullshitting because Microsoft invested so much money in it it just has to work.

yes, I believe this. Microsoft is deploying an army of devs to HN to tout AI because they are invested in at cost of billions of dollars per year - HN AI Bubble :)

Re: AI Pullback Has Officially Started

#28

Post by walleeee »

panny wrote: post #22

There are a lot of people invested in AI, so they are cheerleaders. There are way more people who didn't invest, who are sour grapes and want to see it fail. I'm neither of these people, but it's a democracy after all. I think AI is due for another winter.

Painting opposition as "sour grapes" is an extraordinarily bad faith take.

Re: AI Pullback Has Officially Started

#29

Post by bdangubic »

rhetocj23 wrote: post #14
CuriouslyC wrote: post #3

People roll out a complex and powerful technology without understanding the technology fully, what evals are or updating process to account for the tech, and the rollout fails, news at 11. Seriously though, "AI fucks up" is a known thing (as is humans fuck up!) and the people who are using the tech successfully account for that and build guardrails into their systems. Use version control, build automated tests (e2e/s…

Imagine comparing a human fuck up to an AI one. Lol.

I have seen 30 years of human fuckups, it is infinitely worse than AI fuck ups so you are right, cannot be compared, humans are so much worse

there are roughly 2.09% of SWEs that actually know what they are doing so this 97.91% generally prodces garbage (after 30 years doing this shit I have once experiencing being brought it to a project (I have been working as a consultant for a long time now) and went “wow, now this is beautiful codebase!”

Re: AI Pullback Has Officially Started

#30

Post by donkey_brains »

falcor84 wrote: post #20
killingtime74 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if switching to 3 ply toilet paper (from the dreaded 1 ply) in employee bathrooms increased productivity in 5% of companies. We could also apply the same logic that these 5% could also produce 50x returns.

I'm not sure what your point is, but I do absolutely think that getting proper toilet paper offers 50x returns and everyone should prioritize it.

Better yet, get a bidet :)
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