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The Majority AI View

anildash.com

21–30 of 47 posts

Re: The Majority AI View

#21

I think this piece makes a fair and important point about LLM hype and the need to treat it as a normal technology rather than a cult movement. The over-the-top marketing and constant “AI will change everything” drumbeat can definitely obscures the more grounded, practical ways it can be used day-to-day. That said, every major technology wave has needed a similar level of push, hype, and momentum to reach mass adopti…

> every major technology wave has needed a similar level of push, hype, and momentum to reach mass adoption

People were standing in line for the first iPhone. Gmail had a waiting list. Tesla sold EVs far faster than they could make them.

On the other hand, I now literally have AI icons blinking in several apps, begging to be used. This isn't a regular marketing push of a brand-new product, it is companies desperately trying to justify their billions of dollars of sunk costs by bolting AI onto their existing products.

Re: The Majority AI View

#22
> People worry that not being seen as mindless, uncritical AI cheerleaders will be a career-limiting move in the current environment of enforced conformity within tech

Yes. I am seeing this right now, but it's not just enough to join the chanting around the altar, you've got to be seen enthusiastically using AI as much as possible and it's turned the contributions of some of the most productive high level developers in my company into... ...well, slop.

I'm dealing with a bug from one such right now, where they wrote code that used my library, and it's not working for them, and they lack the understanding of their code to fix it, and the reason it's a bug I'm working on? Cursor couldn't fix it for them, and they lack the mental model to do so, because it's hard to mentally model code you didn't write.

I'm sure there's an inevitable "well, your company/colleague is doing it wrong then" critique incoming. And I agree.

But given that "doing it right" is often being defined as "using it as much as possible" by business leaders across the industry, then we get these paradoxical outcomes where doing so reduces productivity, but no-one is ready to admit that.

You've got to be AI-first, or AI-native, at least if you want the investors to stay invested.

I've never experienced such a collective adherence to tech hype (but probably only because my company couldn't figure out how to jam a blockchain and/or NFT in previously). Not even during the days when everyone was serverless, or "cloud-first" / "cloud-native".

It's wild.

TL;DR - we've always as an industry used appropriate tools for appropriate problems, right now it feels like so many of us are throwing AI slop at walls and seeing what sticks.

Re: The Majority AI View

#23
I feel like this is another case of an article kind of missing its own point. It says the majority view among tech experts is that AI is overhyped. And why does that matter? I guess because:

> If we were to simply listen to the smart voices of those who aren't lost in the hype cycle, we might see that it is not inevitable that AI systems use content without the consent of creators, and it is not impossible to build AI systems that respect commitments to environmental sustainability. We can build AI that isn't centralized under the control of a handful of giant companies. Or any other definition of "good AI" that people might aspire to.

So it's saying "don't throw the baby out with the bathwater"? We can have our cake and eat it too, we can have AI and also have it not be damaging? Except we can't. The article gives these two claims as reasons for other things but doesn't realize they are the reasons we can't:

> because the platforms that have introduced "AI" to the public imagination are run by authoritarian extremists with deeply destructive agendas.

> tech leaders are collaborating with the current regime to punish free speech, fire anyone who dissents, and embolden the wealthy tycoons at the top to make ever-more-extreme statements, often at the direct expense of some of their own workers.

This kind of thing to me is like saying we could make a really great machine gun that would be used just for peacfully shooting tin cans, if only we could get people to stop using such things to kill each other. Well we can't do that as long as the people who make the decisions about making such things want to make things that kill people instead of putting holes in tin cans. (Not the people who actually make the guns! The people who make the decisions.) And so this part doesn't matter:

> But it's important to remember that there are a lot more of us. ... Very few agree with the hype bubble that the tycoons have been trying to puff up.

But the tycoons still have the money and still call the shots, and that's why we're in the mess we're in. Neither the technical reality nor the majoritarian reality matters to the tycoons. The above quoted statement could apply equal well to all sorts of aspects of modern society --- social media, streaming services, telecom, political ads, gerrymandering, you name it. Most people don't like a lot of what we've got.

And the reason for that is that we're in a situation where what most people want doesn't matter. All that matters is what a small bunch of people with a lot of money wants. So this is off base:

> Once in a while, you might hear some coverage of the critiques of AI, but even those will generally be from people outside the tech industry, and they will often solely be about frustrations or anger with the negative externalities of the centralized Big AI companies. Those are valid and vital critiques, but [...]

No buts. Those are valid and vital techniques, so we can stop there (for now). The technical concerns are of secondary importance at best. The real issue is the concentration of wealth and power. If there were no Google, no OpenAI, no Meta, no Nvidia, no Amazon, and so on, there would be no one in a position to ignore the technical issues and instead spew pre-enshittified garbage out and call it AI. And then maybe people could get down to the business of using it in non-evil ways. But worrying about how many technical people think this or that is a distraction from the issue that it doesn't matter what anyone thinks except a small group of disproportionately powerful people.

Re: The Majority AI View

#24
post #14

I think this piece makes a fair and important point about LLM hype and the need to treat it as a normal technology rather than a cult movement. The over-the-top marketing and constant “AI will change everything” drumbeat can definitely obscures the more grounded, practical ways it can be used day-to-day. That said, every major technology wave has needed a similar level of push, hype, and momentum to reach mass adopti…

I think this is exactly the right intuition. I think people hopelessly underestimate the human tendency to do nothing. We have this idea that if an innovation is good enough it should “sell itself”, and that’s almost never true because across all organizations, it’s almost always safer to do nothing, adopt nothing, keep doing what you’re doing. No one gets fired for suggesting no change. It takes a special level of h…

[dead]

Re: The Majority AI View

#27

The hype is justified. Nowadays I rarely write code directly anymore. I don't have to navigate around the codebase to trace data flow. I don't have to find mistakes causing a deadlock. The way I do my job compared to a year ago is completely different and I'm accomplishing more in the same amount of time. This isn't even including my usage in my personal life for education. I'm skeptical the majority of tech experts…

> I don't have to navigate around the codebase to trace data flow.

How big is your codebase?

Re: The Majority AI View

#29
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is exactly the right intuition. I think people hopelessly underestimate the human tendency to do nothing. We have this idea that if an innovation is good enough it should “sell itself”, and that’s almost never true because across all organizations, it’s almost always safer to do nothing, adopt nothing, keep doing what you’re doing. No one gets fired for suggesting no change. It takes a special level of h…

But we don't need to do anything. We don't need AI and so we don't need a push for it. If AI is just a "normal" technology that has some legitimate uses, it doesn't need a huge boost, it doesn't need any hype at all. It can just be slowly discovered and used by the people who have a legitimate use for it. Doing nothing is often a good move.

“ technology that has some legitimate uses, it doesn't need a huge boost”

That’s what I’m disagreeing with. “Legitimate uses” isn’t something just hanging out in the ether to attach itself to useful technology it happens via a grinding sales process and big industry wide cultural changes.

People don’t like change.

I think AI and its knock-on effects in robotics will have massive productivity boosts in industries where productivity has been lagging for years. It will take decades and multiple boom-busts to happen to drag the population into change but it’ll happen.

Re: The Majority AI View

#30

I've found it very weird observing how CEOs across many companies behave as if they're part of some hivemind. When to do layoffs, how to implement office policies, and now pushing AI in the same way as if they have no brain of their own. It's very offputting. I can't tell if its collusion or whether maybe capitalism has its own goals that are pursued in lockstep by its creepy agents. I think the end goal is definitel…

That's not any different from programmers clamoring en masse to switch to the latest cool framework or fashionable coding trend.

but programmers do not switch "en-masse". that's a HN bubble.
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