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Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

anthropic.com

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Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#21

Post by AndrewKemendo »

tintor wrote: post #19
robbrown451 wrote: post #11

I'm having trouble understanding what they want to "upskill" those people to do. What skills won't be replaced? The only ones I can think of either have a large physical component, or are only doable by a tiny fraction of the current workforce. As for the ones with a physical component (plumbers being the most cited), the cognitive parts of the job (the "skilled" part of skilled labor) can be replaced while having th…

'main hard part of making a capable robot is the AI part' Robots are far behind. Mechanical hands with human equivalent performance is as hard as the AI part. Strong, fast, durable, tough, touch and temp sensitive, dexterous, light, water-proof, energy efficient, non-overheating. Muscles and tendons in human hands and forearms self-heal and grow stronger with more use. Mechanical tendons stretch and break. Small moto…

And your claim is that those will never be solved?

As a professional robotics engineer I can tell you for a fact they are coming soon.

Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#22

Post by AndrewKemendo »

Nasrudith wrote: post #16
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #4

Much like the end of history wasn’t the end of history LLM-Attention centric AI isn’t the end of AI development So if they are successful at locking in it will be at their own demise because it doesn’t cover the infinity many pathways for AI to continue down, specifically intersections with robotics and physical manipulation, that are ultimately way more impactful on society. Until the plurality of humans on the eart…

I highly doubt there is ever going to be "effective governance" of technology for multiple reasons. It would require impossible foreknowledge of the impacts of every possible tech and dystopian levels of control to prevent new ideas from coming into play. We cannot even get the direction of impact right a-priori. Even if they had that this dystopia would have to remain both stable and unmutated over generations. All…

You might be interested in my theory.

High school version: https://kemendo.com/basiccohesion.html

Full draft PDF https://kemendo.com/GTC.pdf

Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#25

Post by DaveZale »

robbrown451 wrote: post #11

I'm having trouble understanding what they want to "upskill" those people to do. What skills won't be replaced? The only ones I can think of either have a large physical component, or are only doable by a tiny fraction of the current workforce. As for the ones with a physical component (plumbers being the most cited), the cognitive parts of the job (the "skilled" part of skilled labor) can be replaced while having th…

Agree for almost all jobs, but some, like my fathers, was about crawling inside huge metal pieces to do precision machining. For unique piecework, it might not be economical to train AI. Surely equivalents to this exist elsewhere

Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#26

Post by robbrown451 »

tintor wrote: post #19
robbrown451 wrote: post #11

I'm having trouble understanding what they want to "upskill" those people to do. What skills won't be replaced? The only ones I can think of either have a large physical component, or are only doable by a tiny fraction of the current workforce. As for the ones with a physical component (plumbers being the most cited), the cognitive parts of the job (the "skilled" part of skilled labor) can be replaced while having th…

'main hard part of making a capable robot is the AI part' Robots are far behind. Mechanical hands with human equivalent performance is as hard as the AI part. Strong, fast, durable, tough, touch and temp sensitive, dexterous, light, water-proof, energy efficient, non-overheating. Muscles and tendons in human hands and forearms self-heal and grow stronger with more use. Mechanical tendons stretch and break. Small moto…

For most things they don't need to be "human equivalent." I'd be willing to be the current crop of robots we're seeing could do most tasks like vacuuming, cooking, picking up clutter, folding laundry and putting it aways, making beds, touch up painting, gardening etc. It seems to be getting better very fast. And if mechanical tendons break, you replace them. Big deal. You don't even need a person to do the repair.

Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#27

Post by WastedCucumber »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #21
tintor wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

'main hard part of making a capable robot is the AI part' Robots are far behind. Mechanical hands with human equivalent performance is as hard as the AI part. Strong, fast, durable, tough, touch and temp sensitive, dexterous, light, water-proof, energy efficient, non-overheating. Muscles and tendons in human hands and forearms self-heal and grow stronger with more use. Mechanical tendons stretch and break. Small moto…

And your claim is that those will never be solved? As a professional robotics engineer I can tell you for a fact they are coming soon.

There's nothing in that post claiming those problems will never be solved. I understand the claim as "the hardware conponent of robotics needs more work and this will take some time, compared to AI capabilities/software" Or soemthing like that.

Maybe you could clarify what your experience on the matter is, how the state of th art looks to you, and most of all what timelines you imagine?

Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#28

Post by DaveZale »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #21
tintor wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

'main hard part of making a capable robot is the AI part' Robots are far behind. Mechanical hands with human equivalent performance is as hard as the AI part. Strong, fast, durable, tough, touch and temp sensitive, dexterous, light, water-proof, energy efficient, non-overheating. Muscles and tendons in human hands and forearms self-heal and grow stronger with more use. Mechanical tendons stretch and break. Small moto…

And your claim is that those will never be solved? As a professional robotics engineer I can tell you for a fact they are coming soon.

you are talking high cost emvironments, at least for the moment?

Come on... show me a robot that can run a farm that grows organic produce at an affordable price. It is the lowest wage job out there. Automating it would make prices far out of range for the 99% - but the billionaires could care less?

Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#29

Post by vkou »

remarkEon wrote: post #23

ctrl + f for "immigration" returns nothing. Not serious, not worth reading.

This is a horn that must be harped on, frequently and loudly.

Anyone with anxieties over immigration should have those same concerns over AI, many times over.

Skilled immigrants just got a $100,000/year head tax in the US. Where is such a tax for AI?

Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#30

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

MatekCopatek wrote: post #2

It's hard to read this without being cynical. How seriously would you take a proposal on car pollution regulation and traffic law updates written by Volkswagen?

If Volkswagen's competitors ran around saying that cars aren't dangerous and there's no need to regulate them, and their critics insisted that you're a mark if you accept the premise that cars are a useful transportation method at all, I don't suppose I'd have a choice but to take it seriously. If you know of a similar analysis from a less conflicted group I'd love to read it!
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