Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Israel, Hamas agree on first phase of ceasefire, hostage release

reuters.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 41 posts

Re: Israel, Hamas agree on first phase of ceasefire, hostage release

#21

Post by bobxmax »

myth_drannon wrote: post #10
ebbi wrote: post #7

Let's hope Israel actually sticks to this ceasefire deal this time.

That won't happen. Hamas will not disarm. So Trump promised F-35s to Qatar and Turkey and they managed to strong arm hamas into releasing the hostages. But the rest of agreement will not happen. Basically no one in Israel believes in that, NO ONE. For Hamas it's too sweet of a deal to trap Israel again into bombing campaigns since its power comes from deaths of its own people ( specially on the international stage) a…

Quite an odd request to ask Hamas to disarm.

Re: Israel, Hamas agree on first phase of ceasefire, hostage release

#22

Post by raxxorraxor »

bobxmax wrote: post #21
myth_drannon wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That won't happen. Hamas will not disarm. So Trump promised F-35s to Qatar and Turkey and they managed to strong arm hamas into releasing the hostages. But the rest of agreement will not happen. Basically no one in Israel believes in that, NO ONE. For Hamas it's too sweet of a deal to trap Israel again into bombing campaigns since its power comes from deaths of its own people ( specially on the international stage) a…

Quite an odd request to ask Hamas to disarm.

It absolutely isn't. They attacked Israel, got defeated and usually you would require an unconditional surrender. Basic laws of warfare.

Hamas is an exception because it believes in martyr death and would drag the whole population in Gaza with them. That is new and unprecedented.

Re: Israel, Hamas agree on first phase of ceasefire, hostage release

#23

Post by raxxorraxor »

volleyball wrote: post #19

Knowing the Israelis and their history (both recent and otherwise), There is a good chance that this will be a repeat of the charade that was Trump's first ceasefire in January. Like then, Israel will probably wait to get all the hostages it can during phase one and then promptly resume their war on Palestine while blaming khamas for scuttling the deal. Their finance minister Smotrich has already spoken to that effec…

[flagged]

Re: Israel, Hamas agree on first phase of ceasefire, hostage release

#24

Post by myth_drannon »

bobxmax wrote: post #21
myth_drannon wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That won't happen. Hamas will not disarm. So Trump promised F-35s to Qatar and Turkey and they managed to strong arm hamas into releasing the hostages. But the rest of agreement will not happen. Basically no one in Israel believes in that, NO ONE. For Hamas it's too sweet of a deal to trap Israel again into bombing campaigns since its power comes from deaths of its own people ( specially on the international stage) a…

Quite an odd request to ask Hamas to disarm.

There are no odd requests, just requests that will be fulfilled or not. Hamas could have asked Israel to disarm. The agreement is that Hamas will disarm.

Most likely scenario is similar to Hizbollah in Lebanon. They didn't disarm as per agreement, hence no international aid flowing to Lebanon. Israel still controls South Lebanon and kills a couple of hizbollocks fighters on a daily basis.

Re: Israel, Hamas agree on first phase of ceasefire, hostage release

#25

Post by jfengel »

SilverElfin wrote: post #6

I am cautiously optimistic. But also curious what this community thinks about Trump‘s role. If this progresses, does he deserve a Nobel peace prize for it? Or is it more that other nations in the region applied pressure for Hamas to accept a deal?

Sure. Give him the Nobel Peace Prize for it.

He doesn't really deserve it, but honestly, the Peace Prize has such a checkered history that "deserve" really isn't relevant. It's the "obvious" compromise, one they should have reached years ago, and he's the main thing that changed in that time. So let's chalk the win up to him.

I doubt he'll get it. The committee really hates being pestered this way. They can't give it this year, and a year from now this is going to be largely forgotten. The Peace Prize is intended to be for lasting accomplishments, not for a ceasefire.

But I want to give credit where it's due. Both sides hate this compromise -- Israelis are livid about releasing 2,000 prisoners, at least some of whom are mass murderers, in exchange for 20 innocent people who should never have been involved. That was a hard thing to achieve.

So, to demonstrate that I'm willing to say something nice about somebody who will never, ever say anything nice about me: sure, give the man a prize.

Re: Israel, Hamas agree on first phase of ceasefire, hostage release

#26

Post by raxxorraxor »

volleyball wrote: post #20
SilverElfin wrote: post #6

I am cautiously optimistic. But also curious what this community thinks about Trump‘s role. If this progresses, does he deserve a Nobel peace prize for it? Or is it more that other nations in the region applied pressure for Hamas to accept a deal?

What a cruel joke. Trump's role in negotiations was to threaten to fully back Israel's genocide of Palestinians if Hamas were to refuse the deal. The actual 'peace plan' also doesn't have any credible roadmap to a Palestinian state or anything that ensures a life of dignity,security and self-determination for the Palestinian people. In fact, it is framed to ensure the opposite. Trump deserves a trial in the Hague, no…

[flagged]

Re: Israel, Hamas agree on first phase of ceasefire, hostage release

#27

Post by runarberg »

jfengel wrote: post #25
SilverElfin wrote: post #6

I am cautiously optimistic. But also curious what this community thinks about Trump‘s role. If this progresses, does he deserve a Nobel peace prize for it? Or is it more that other nations in the region applied pressure for Hamas to accept a deal?

Sure. Give him the Nobel Peace Prize for it. He doesn't really deserve it, but honestly, the Peace Prize has such a checkered history that "deserve" really isn't relevant. It's the "obvious" compromise, one they should have reached years ago, and he's the main thing that changed in that time. So let's chalk the win up to him. I doubt he'll get it. The committee really hates being pestered this way. They can't give it…

In theory the Palestinians (nor even Hamas) shouldn’t be too unhappy about this compromise. The draft deal had some serious issues, many of which flat out illegal under international law, and in a just world these parts would never actually be implemented and instead Palestine would get their independent and democratic state. As well as many Israelis would be tried for the crime of genocide.

Regarding the hostages, Hamas wasn’t gaining anything by keeping them, the best they could hope for was a prisoner swap, since Israel was more then happy to continue the genocide even if that would cost the lives of hostages. So releasing them will not cost Hamas any leverage, really.

But regrettably we don‘t live in a just world, and the best we can hope for is that this ceasefire will last long enough for the international community to step up their game and actually assert pressure on Israel to not only not break the ceasefire, but also to implement their obligations to international law and give Palestinians a) civil rights b) a political means of resistance, and c) self determination.

Re: Israel, Hamas agree on first phase of ceasefire, hostage release

#28

Post by jfengel »

runarberg wrote: post #27
jfengel wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure. Give him the Nobel Peace Prize for it. He doesn't really deserve it, but honestly, the Peace Prize has such a checkered history that "deserve" really isn't relevant. It's the "obvious" compromise, one they should have reached years ago, and he's the main thing that changed in that time. So let's chalk the win up to him. I doubt he'll get it. The committee really hates being pestered this way. They can't give it…

In theory the Palestinians (nor even Hamas) shouldn’t be too unhappy about this compromise. The draft deal had some serious issues, many of which flat out illegal under international law, and in a just world these parts would never actually be implemented and instead Palestine would get their independent and democratic state. As well as many Israelis would be tried for the crime of genocide. Regarding the hostages, H…

"Just" isn't even on the table. I can only talk about it in terms of Realpolitik, the things that might actually happen.

I don't believe anything past the prisoner swap will be executed. If we're lucky, the ceasefire will last until next year, at which point Israeli elections will alter the calculus. That's so fundamental that everything after that is utterly opaque.

Re: Israel, Hamas agree on first phase of ceasefire, hostage release

#29

Post by runarberg »

jfengel wrote: post #28
runarberg wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In theory the Palestinians (nor even Hamas) shouldn’t be too unhappy about this compromise. The draft deal had some serious issues, many of which flat out illegal under international law, and in a just world these parts would never actually be implemented and instead Palestine would get their independent and democratic state. As well as many Israelis would be tried for the crime of genocide. Regarding the hostages, H…

"Just" isn't even on the table. I can only talk about it in terms of Realpolitik, the things that might actually happen. I don't believe anything past the prisoner swap will be executed. If we're lucky, the ceasefire will last until next year, at which point Israeli elections will alter the calculus. That's so fundamental that everything after that is utterly opaque.

It pains me to say it, but I fear you are right. Israel has terrible track record when it comes to following their own peace agreements. Aside from unilaterally breaking the ceasefire with Hamas last March, they are also serially breaking their ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, both without consequences.

I really hope we are wrong here and this will be a lasting ceasefire, but If we are not, Europe has really paid all nearly all the political capital they have to spare for Israel complicity. I think Europe will get some political capital back from this ceasefire, but it will not be enough to cover for Israel breaking it the second time. And my hope (in case this ceasefire fails) that Europe will be forced to assert pressure. It would be better if Europe would assert pressure to Israel to keep the current ceasefire, but regrettably, that is highly unlikely.

Re: Israel, Hamas agree on first phase of ceasefire, hostage release

#30

Post by runarberg »

raxxorraxor wrote: post #26
volleyball wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What a cruel joke. Trump's role in negotiations was to threaten to fully back Israel's genocide of Palestinians if Hamas were to refuse the deal. The actual 'peace plan' also doesn't have any credible roadmap to a Palestinian state or anything that ensures a life of dignity,security and self-determination for the Palestinian people. In fact, it is framed to ensure the opposite. Trump deserves a trial in the Hague, no…

[flagged]

Please, enough with the genocide denial. Genocide denial is a form of hate speech and has no place on a tech forum.
Post reply on HN