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The bubble pops when Apple releases an iPhone that runs a good enough for most things LLM locally. At that point cloud hardware investments will plateau (unless some new GPU melting use case comes out). Investors will move from nvidia, AMD into Apple.
> As part of the arrangement, AMD issued a warrant that gives OpenAI the ability to buy up to 160 million shares of AMD for 1 cent each over the course of the chips deal. The warrant vests in tranches based on milestones that the two companies have agreed on. This is money printing, just in the private sector. We know what happens when governments do it, and it's not good.
It could be bad sure but it’s not money printing
If someone was writing the script to “The Big Short 2” about the AI bubble they might struggle to come up with some of these things with a straight face.
Finance folks are salivating at the once in a generation opportunities ahead when this whole thing crumbles. CNBC seems to have at least one segment a day on “What’s your AI bubble burst play?”
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Cheap cloud gaming. Those GPU's will finally push pixels again :)
Cloud gaming sucks due to latency, not price.
Just like we knew self-driving AIs are not reliable.
The magical thinking was assuming they would just get better.
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What's the benefit to running LLMs locally? Data is already remote, LLM inferencing isn't particularly constrained by Internet latency. So you get worse models, performance, and battery life. Local compute on a power constrained mobile device is required for applications that require low latency or significant data throughput and LLM inferencing is neither.
The data you need is mostly not remote. A friend works at a software development company, they can use LLMs, but only local ones (local as in their datacenter) and it can only be trained on their code base). Customer service LLMs need to be trained on in-house material, not generic Internet sources. The general advantage is that you know that you're not leaking information, because there's nowhere to leak it to. You…
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Cheap cloud gaming. Those GPU's will finally push pixels again :)
Cloud gaming sucks due to latency, not price.
Infinite money glitch
It’s quite a good strategy to counteract the prevailing sense that “No one ever got fired for buying Nvidia GPUs”. AMD just doesn’t know how to compete with Nvidia. The best it can do is charge 10% less and release GPUs about the same level of underwhelming performance as Nvidia. Maybe they wouldn’t need to sell equity if they made better faster cheaper products than Nvidia. But Lisa Su can’t bring herself to compete…
I mean, they could recognize that Nvdidia has better ecosystem and they could provide something similar (CEO's job is to set this), but saying "just make better chips" is kind of funny.
I mean, I worked in companies where the CEO couldnt figure this out, but come on. It's AMD.
It’s quite a good strategy to counteract the prevailing sense that “No one ever got fired for buying Nvidia GPUs”. AMD just doesn’t know how to compete with Nvidia. The best it can do is charge 10% less and release GPUs about the same level of underwhelming performance as Nvidia. Maybe they wouldn’t need to sell equity if they made better faster cheaper products than Nvidia. But Lisa Su can’t bring herself to compete…