21–30 of 218 posts
At a "telecom of telecom" we (they) were still lighting up dark fiber 15 years later (2015) when mobile data for cell carriers finally created enough demand. Hard to fathom the amount of overbuild. The only difference is fiber optic lines remained useful the whole time. Will these cards have the same longevity? (I have no idea just sharing anecdata)
Fiber networks were using less than 0.002% of available capacity, with potential for 60,000x speed increases. It was just too early. I doubt we will see unused GPU capacity. As soon as we can prompt "Think about the codebase over night. Try different ways to refactor it. Tomorrow, show me your best solution." we will want as much GPU time at the current rate as possible. If a minute of GPU usage is currently $0.10, a…
With improvements on the algorithm side and new techniques, even older hardware will become useful.
At a "telecom of telecom" we (they) were still lighting up dark fiber 15 years later (2015) when mobile data for cell carriers finally created enough demand. Hard to fathom the amount of overbuild. The only difference is fiber optic lines remained useful the whole time. Will these cards have the same longevity? (I have no idea just sharing anecdata)
This didn't last that much longer and many places were trying to diversify into managed services (data dog for companues on Orem network and server equipment,etc) which they call "unregulated" revenue.
Add written an things business, irrational exuberance can kill you.
At a "telecom of telecom" we (they) were still lighting up dark fiber 15 years later (2015) when mobile data for cell carriers finally created enough demand. Hard to fathom the amount of overbuild. The only difference is fiber optic lines remained useful the whole time. Will these cards have the same longevity? (I have no idea just sharing anecdata)
I think the fundamental issue is the uncertainty of achieving AGI with baked in fundamentals of reasoning. Almost 90% of topline investments appear to be geared around achieving that in the next 2-5 years. If that doesn’t come to pass soon enough, investors will loose interest. Interest has been maintained by continuous growth in benchmark results. Perhaps this pattern can continue for another 6-12 months before fati…
If you speak with AI researchers, they all seem reasonable in their expectations.
... but I work with non-technical business people across industries and their expectations are NOT reasonable. They expect ChatGPT to do their entire job for $20/month and hire, plan, budget accordingly.
12 months later, when things don't work out, their response to AI goes to the other end of the spectrum -- anger, avoidance, suspicion of new products, etc.
Enough failures and you have slowing revenue growth. I think if companies see lower revenue growth (not even drops!), investors will get very very nervous and we can see a drop in valuations, share prices, etc.
At a "telecom of telecom" we (they) were still lighting up dark fiber 15 years later (2015) when mobile data for cell carriers finally created enough demand. Hard to fathom the amount of overbuild. The only difference is fiber optic lines remained useful the whole time. Will these cards have the same longevity? (I have no idea just sharing anecdata)
The only thing to keep in mind is that all of this is about business and ROI.
Given the colossal investments, even if the companies finances are healthy and not fraudulent, the economic returns have to be unprecedented or there will be a crash.
They are all chasing a golden goose.
I think the fundamental issue is the uncertainty of achieving AGI with baked in fundamentals of reasoning. Almost 90% of topline investments appear to be geared around achieving that in the next 2-5 years. If that doesn’t come to pass soon enough, investors will loose interest. Interest has been maintained by continuous growth in benchmark results. Perhaps this pattern can continue for another 6-12 months before fati…
The Economist has a great discussion on depreciation assumptions having a huge impact on how the finances of the cloud vendors are perceived[1].
Revenue recognition and expectations around Oracle could also be what bursts the bubble. Coreweave or Oracle could be the weak point, even if Nvidia is not.
[1] https://www.economist.com/business/2025/09/18/the-4trn-accou...
Are these companies developing InfiniBand-class interconnects to pair with their custom chips? Without equivalent fabric, they can’t replace NVIDIA GPUs for large-scale training.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/2ieRvuJxrpTh2V626siZYQ?si=2...