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Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

cnbc.com

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Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#21

Post by Insanity »

arisAlexis wrote: post #5
Insanity wrote: post #3

I think most level-headed people can see this is a giant bubble which will eventually burst like the dot-com crash. And AI is technology that's hard to understand to non-technical (and even some technical) investors. But of course, every company needs to slap AI on their product now just to be seen as a viable product. Personally, I look forward to seeing the bubble burst and being left with a more rational view of A…

How is AI hard to understand when you enter a cafe and everyone is chatting with their LLM?

Not hard to use. I meant hard to understand what the limitations are for non tech users. E.g people who think AGI is just around the corner because we now have stochastic parrots.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#22

Post by janalsncm »

mattnewton wrote: post #2

Seems like a measured approach- my read is him saying it’s probably a bubble in that bad ideas are being funded too, but there are a lot of really good ideas doing well. Also nit: Typo right in the digest I assume, assuming “suring” is “during”, does cnbc proofread their content?

Then it’s a market for lemons. Buyers can’t (or choose not to) tell a good AI idea from a bad one.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#23

Post by janalsncm »

pseudosavant wrote: post #10

What is going on with AI right now could be a bubble just like there was the dotcom bubble. But it isn't like the internet went away after the dotcom burst. The largest companies in existence today are internet companies or have products that wouldn't make sense without the internet. Sure, many of these "thin prompt wrapper around the OpenAI API" product "businesses" will all be gone within a few years. But AI? That…

Things like recommendations, ads, and search will always be around because they were money printers before VCs found out about AI and they will continue to be long after.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#24

Post by ten_hands »

lumost wrote: post #9
Insanity wrote: post #3

I think most level-headed people can see this is a giant bubble which will eventually burst like the dot-com crash. And AI is technology that's hard to understand to non-technical (and even some technical) investors. But of course, every company needs to slap AI on their product now just to be seen as a viable product. Personally, I look forward to seeing the bubble burst and being left with a more rational view of A…

OpenAI has a reasonable path to reduce their costs by 10-100x over the next 5 years if they stop improving the models. That would make them an extremely profitable company with their only real risk being “local ai”. However customers have wanted their data in the cloud for years, local inference would likely just mean 0 cost tokens for OpenAI. The challenge is the rest of the industry funding dead companies with bill…

I don't see how this works though. OpenAI doesn't exist in a vacuum, it has competitors, and the first company to stop improving their model will get obliterated by the others. It seems like they are doomed to keep retraining right up until the VC funding runs out, at which point they go bankrupt.

Some other company, that doesn't have a giant pile of debt will then pick up the pieces and make some money though. Once we dig out of the resulting market crash.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#25

Post by Sohcahtoa82 »

coffeecoders wrote: post #15
dang wrote: post #28

[stub for offtopicness] (title fixed now)

@dang Title needs to be changed to something like "Bezos says AI is in industrial bubble yet promises huge benefits"

Tagging doesn't work on HN.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#26

Post by lumost »

ten_hands wrote: post #24
lumost wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OpenAI has a reasonable path to reduce their costs by 10-100x over the next 5 years if they stop improving the models. That would make them an extremely profitable company with their only real risk being “local ai”. However customers have wanted their data in the cloud for years, local inference would likely just mean 0 cost tokens for OpenAI. The challenge is the rest of the industry funding dead companies with bill…

I don't see how this works though. OpenAI doesn't exist in a vacuum, it has competitors, and the first company to stop improving their model will get obliterated by the others. It seems like they are doomed to keep retraining right up until the VC funding runs out, at which point they go bankrupt. Some other company, that doesn't have a giant pile of debt will then pick up the pieces and make some money though. Once…

The winner takes all thesis would be that like TSMC, the capex of competing in this field keeps growing until only one vendor can both raise sufficient capital to compete and effectively execute with that capital. OpenAI doesn't need to be the first to stop raising money and go profitable, they need to be the last vendor to go profits first.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#27

Post by surgical_fire »

pseudosavant wrote: post #10

What is going on with AI right now could be a bubble just like there was the dotcom bubble. But it isn't like the internet went away after the dotcom burst. The largest companies in existence today are internet companies or have products that wouldn't make sense without the internet. Sure, many of these "thin prompt wrapper around the OpenAI API" product "businesses" will all be gone within a few years. But AI? That…

This is always a bad take.

The dotcom bubble was not about "the internet" itself. The Internet was fine and pretty much already proven as a very useful communication tool. It was about business that made absolutely no sense getting extremely high valuations just because they operated - however vaguely - over the internet.

Generative AI have never reached the level of usability of the Internet itself, and likely never will.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#30

Post by gizajob »

pseudosavant wrote: post #10

What is going on with AI right now could be a bubble just like there was the dotcom bubble. But it isn't like the internet went away after the dotcom burst. The largest companies in existence today are internet companies or have products that wouldn't make sense without the internet. Sure, many of these "thin prompt wrapper around the OpenAI API" product "businesses" will all be gone within a few years. But AI? That…

The bubble is in the valuations on the stock market, not in the technology.
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