I'll share something as a former solar researcher. Scientific progress is heavily influenced by how many bodies you can throw at a problem. The more experiments you can run, with more variety and angles the more data you can get, the higher the likelihood of a breakthrough. Several huge scientist are famous not because they are geniuses, but because they are great fundraisers and can have 20/30/50 bodies to throw at…
John Jumper: AI is revolutionizing scientific discovery [video]
21–30 of 91 posts
Re: John Jumper: AI is revolutionizing scientific discovery [video]
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
No evidence so far that "AI" has improved our general optimization capabilities. At all. Still at the top of the benchmarks of integer optimization by huge margin are the traditional usual suspects. Same in constraint programming and SAT.
If you only know how to use a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
Bring any tool you wish, but the problem is very well defined and very real.
Re: John Jumper: AI is revolutionizing scientific discovery [video]
#23Awful title, great video. Three points jumped out 1) "really when you look at these machine learning breakthroughs they're probably fewer people than you imagine" In a world of idiots, few people can do great things. 2) External benchmarks forced people upstream to improve We need more of these. 3) "the third of these ingredients research was worth a hundredfold of the first of these ingredients data." Available data…
> Available data is 0 for most things.
I would argue that we need an effective alternative to benchmarks entirely given how hard they are to obtain in scientific disciplines. Classical statistics has gone very far by getting a lot out of limited datasets, and train-test splits are absolutely unnecessary there.
Re: John Jumper: AI is revolutionizing scientific discovery [video]
#24I'll share something as a former solar researcher. Scientific progress is heavily influenced by how many bodies you can throw at a problem. The more experiments you can run, with more variety and angles the more data you can get, the higher the likelihood of a breakthrough. Several huge scientist are famous not because they are geniuses, but because they are great fundraisers and can have 20/30/50 bodies to throw at…
I agree that there is power in numbers for science, but not all science is lab work. Sometimes the bottleneck is purely computational.
Re: John Jumper: AI is revolutionizing scientific discovery [video]
#25I'll share something as a former solar researcher. Scientific progress is heavily influenced by how many bodies you can throw at a problem. The more experiments you can run, with more variety and angles the more data you can get, the higher the likelihood of a breakthrough. Several huge scientist are famous not because they are geniuses, but because they are great fundraisers and can have 20/30/50 bodies to throw at…
> But given that LLMs cannot interact with the real world What type of interaction do you envision? Could a non-domain-expert, but somewhat trained person provide a bridge? If the LLM comes up with the big ideas and tells a human technical assistant to execute (put the vial here, run the 3D printer with this file, put the object there, drive in a screw), would that help? But dexterous robots are getting more and more…
Re: John Jumper: AI is revolutionizing scientific discovery [video]
#26The cynists will comment that I've just been sucked in by the PR. However, I know this team and have been using these techniques for other problems. I know they are so close to a computationally-assisted proof of counterexample that it is virtually inevitable at this point. If they don't do it, I'm pretty sure I could take a handful of people and a few years and do it myself. Mostly a lot of interval arithmetic with a final application of Schauder that remains; tedious and time-consuming, but not overly challenging compared to the parts already done.
Re: John Jumper: AI is revolutionizing scientific discovery [video]
#27Earlier quoted context omitted.
No evidence so far that "AI" has improved our general optimization capabilities. At all. Still at the top of the benchmarks of integer optimization by huge margin are the traditional usual suspects. Same in constraint programming and SAT.
Here is some evidence for you then: https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.00566 Not published just yet are experiments for finding solutions to mathematical problems traditionally found with SAT solvers, at much larger scale than was previously possible.
You could call it artificial ant colony optimization.
People come up with such ideas all the time. Sorry, but nothing groundbreaking here.
Re: John Jumper: AI is revolutionizing scientific discovery [video]
#28Something else to add is mathematical discovery. There is a team that is very close to solving the Navier-Stokes Millenium Prize problem: https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/discovering-new-soluti... The cynists will comment that I've just been sucked in by the PR. However, I know this team and have been using these techniques for other problems. I know they are so close to a computationally-assisted proof of count…
- Build a complex intractable mathematical model (here, Navier-Stokes)
- Approximate it with a function approximator (here, a Physics Informed Neural Network)
- Use the some property of function approximator to search for more solutions to the original model (here, using Gauss-Newton)
In a sense, this is actually just the process of model-based science anyway: use a model for the physical world and exploit the mathematics of the model for real-world effects.
This is very very good work, but this heritage goes back to polynomial approximation even from Taylor series, and has been the foundation of engineering for literal centuries. Throughout history, the approximator keeps getting better and better and hungrier and hungrier for data (Taylor series, Chebyshev + other orthogonal bases for polynomials, neural networks, RNNs, LSTMs, PINNs, ).
You didn't say anything to the contrary, and neither did the original video, but it's very different than what some other people are talking about in this thread ("run an LLM in a loop to do science the way a person does it"). Maybe I'm just ranting at the overloading of the term AI to mean "anything on a GPU".
Re: John Jumper: AI is revolutionizing scientific discovery [video]
#29Something else to add is mathematical discovery. There is a team that is very close to solving the Navier-Stokes Millenium Prize problem: https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/discovering-new-soluti... The cynists will comment that I've just been sucked in by the PR. However, I know this team and have been using these techniques for other problems. I know they are so close to a computationally-assisted proof of count…
This is not just PR and is very interesting. However, in my view, (and from a quick read of the paper) this is actually a very classical method in applied math work: - Build a complex intractable mathematical model (here, Navier-Stokes) - Approximate it with a function approximator (here, a Physics Informed Neural Network) - Use the some property of function approximator to search for more solutions to the original m…
I also wouldn't say this is entirely "classical". Old, yes, but still unfamiliar and controversial to a surprising number of people. But I get your point :-).
Re: John Jumper: AI is revolutionizing scientific discovery [video]
#30Something else to add is mathematical discovery. There is a team that is very close to solving the Navier-Stokes Millenium Prize problem: https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/discovering-new-soluti... The cynists will comment that I've just been sucked in by the PR. However, I know this team and have been using these techniques for other problems. I know they are so close to a computationally-assisted proof of count…
That's a strong claim. Is it based on more than the linked work on some model problems from fluid mechanics?
I will say that I dread the discourse if it works out, since I don't believe enough people will understand that using a PINN to get new solutions of differential equations has substantially no similarity to asking ChatGPT (or AlphaProof etc) for a proof of a conjecture. And there'll be a lot of people trying to hide the difference.