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State of AI-assisted software development

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Re: State of AI-assisted software development

#22
post #4

Every study I've read says nobody is seeing productivity gains from AI use. Here's an AI vendor saying the opposite. Funny.

There's a few explanations for this, and it's not necessarily contradictory. 1. AI doesn't improve productivity and people just have cognitive biases. (logical, but I also don't think it's true from what I know...) 2. AI does improve productivity, but only if you find your own workflow and what tasks it's good for, and many companies try to shoehorn it into things which just don't work for it. 3. AI does improve prod…

>1. AI doesn't improve productivity and people just have cognitive biases. (logical, but I also don't think it's true from what I know...)

It is from what Ive seen. It has the same visible effect on devs as a slot machine giving out coins when it spits out something correct. Their faces light up with delight when it finally nails something.

This would explain the study that showed a 20% decline in actual productivity where people "felt" 20% more productive.

Re: State of AI-assisted software development

#23
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The METR study showed even though people feel more productive they weren’t https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.09089

the MTR study is a joke. it surveyed only 16 devs. in the era of Sonnet 3.5 Can we stop citing this study I'm not saying the DORA study is more accurate, but at least it surveyed 5000 developers, globally and more recently (between June 13 and July 21, 2025) which means using the most recent SOTA models

Yea cite the study funded by a company that invested billions into AI instead, that will surely be non biased and accurate.

Re: State of AI-assisted software development

#26
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The METR study showed even though people feel more productive they weren’t https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.09089

the MTR study is a joke. it surveyed only 16 devs. in the era of Sonnet 3.5 Can we stop citing this study I'm not saying the DORA study is more accurate, but at least it surveyed 5000 developers, globally and more recently (between June 13 and July 21, 2025) which means using the most recent SOTA models

It didn't "survey" devs. It paid them to complete real tasks while they were randomly assigned to use AI or not, and measured the actual time taken to complete the tasks vs. just the perception. It is much higher quality evidence than a convenience sample of developers who just report their perceptions.

Re: State of AI-assisted software development

#27
post #4

Every study I've read says nobody is seeing productivity gains from AI use. Here's an AI vendor saying the opposite. Funny.

This seems to be a poll of _users_. "Do people think it has improved _their_ productivity?" is a very different question to "Has it empirically improved aggregate productivity of a team/company/industry." People think _all_ sorts of snake oil improve their productivity; you can't trust people to self-report on things like this.

Re: State of AI-assisted software development

#29
post #4

Every study I've read says nobody is seeing productivity gains from AI use. Here's an AI vendor saying the opposite. Funny.

There's a few explanations for this, and it's not necessarily contradictory. 1. AI doesn't improve productivity and people just have cognitive biases. (logical, but I also don't think it's true from what I know...) 2. AI does improve productivity, but only if you find your own workflow and what tasks it's good for, and many companies try to shoehorn it into things which just don't work for it. 3. AI does improve prod…

(1) seems very plausible, if only because that is what happens with ~everything which promises to improve productivity. People are really bad at self-evaluating how productive they are, and productivity is really pretty hard to externally measure.

Re: State of AI-assisted software development

#30
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The METR study showed even though people feel more productive they weren’t https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.09089

the MTR study is a joke. it surveyed only 16 devs. in the era of Sonnet 3.5 Can we stop citing this study I'm not saying the DORA study is more accurate, but at least it surveyed 5000 developers, globally and more recently (between June 13 and July 21, 2025) which means using the most recent SOTA models

> I'm not saying the DORA study is more accurate, but at least it surveyed 5000 developers, globally and more recently

It's asking a completely different question; it is a survey of peoples' _perceptions of their own productivity_. That's basically useless; people are notoriously bad at self-evaluating things like that.

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