Live data from Hacker News

Hallucination Risk Calculator

github.com

21–30 of 44 posts

Re: Hallucination Risk Calculator

#21
I've looked up hallucination eval leaderboards, and there doesn't seem to be much besides the vectara [1][2], which doesnt seem to include Claude, and seems to be missing Gemni Pro (non-experimental).

[1] https://huggingface.co/spaces/vectara/leaderboard [2] https://github.com/vectara/hallucination-leaderboard/tree/ma...

Re: Hallucination Risk Calculator

#22
post #19

From the paper abstract, > (4) we derive the optimal chain-of-thought length as [..math..] with explicit constants I know we probably have to dive into math and abandon metaphor and analogy, but the whole structure of a claim like this just strikes me as bizarre. Chain-of-thought always makes me think of that old joke. Alexander the great was a great general. Great generals are forewarned. Forewarned is forearmed. Fo…

Yesterday I used ChatGPT to transform a csv file. Move around a couple of columns, add a few new ones. Very large file. It got them all right. Except when I really looked through the data, for 3 of the excel cells, it clearly just made up new numbers. I found the first one by accident, the remaining two took longer than it would have taken to modify the file from scratch myself. Watching my coworkers blindly trust ou…

After we fix the all the simple specious reasoning of stuff like Alexander-the-great and agree to out-source certain problems to appropriate tools, the high-dimensional analogs of stuff like Datasaurus[0] and Simpson's paradox[1] etc are still going to be a thing. But we'll be so disconnected from the representation of the problems that we're trying to solve that we won't even be aware of the possibility of any danger, much less able to actually spot it.

My take-away re: chain-of-thought specifically is this. If the answer to "LLMs can't reason" is "use more LLMs", and then the answer to problems with that is to run the same process in parallel N times and vote/retry/etc, it just feels like a scam aimed at burning through more tokens.

Hopefully chain-of-code[2] is better in that it's at least trying to force LLMs into emulating a more deterministic abstract machine instead of rolling dice. Trying to eliminate things like code, formal representations, and explicit world-models in favor of implicit representations and inscrutable oracles might be good business but it's bad engineering

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datasaurus_dozen [1] https://towardsdatascience.com/how-metrics-and-llms-can-tric... [2] https://icml.cc/media/icml-2024/Slides/32784.pdf

Re: Hallucination Risk Calculator

#23
post #19

From the paper abstract, > (4) we derive the optimal chain-of-thought length as [..math..] with explicit constants I know we probably have to dive into math and abandon metaphor and analogy, but the whole structure of a claim like this just strikes me as bizarre. Chain-of-thought always makes me think of that old joke. Alexander the great was a great general. Great generals are forewarned. Forewarned is forearmed. Fo…

Yesterday I used ChatGPT to transform a csv file. Move around a couple of columns, add a few new ones. Very large file. It got them all right. Except when I really looked through the data, for 3 of the excel cells, it clearly just made up new numbers. I found the first one by accident, the remaining two took longer than it would have taken to modify the file from scratch myself. Watching my coworkers blindly trust ou…

the safe way to do this is to have it write code to transform data, then run the code

I expect future models will be able to identify when a computational tool will work, and use it directly

Re: Hallucination Risk Calculator

#24

This topic is interesting, but the repo and paper have a lot of inconsistencies that make me think this work is hiding behind lots of dense notation and language. For one, the repo states: > This implementation follows the framework from the paper “Compression Failure in LLMs: Bayesian in Expectation, Not in Realization” (NeurIPS 2024 preprint) and related EDFL/ISR/B2T methodology. There doesn't seem to be a paper by…

It seems like the repo is mostly if not entirely LLM generated; not a great sign.

Re: Hallucination Risk Calculator

#25

This seems less accurate than `return 1.0` Using the unboundedly unreliable systems to evaluate reliability is just a bad premise.

Can't wait for (((LLM) Hallucination Risk Calculator) Risk Calculator) Risk Calculator to propagate & magnify the error even further! /j

Re: Hallucination Risk Calculator

#26
post #19

From the paper abstract, > (4) we derive the optimal chain-of-thought length as [..math..] with explicit constants I know we probably have to dive into math and abandon metaphor and analogy, but the whole structure of a claim like this just strikes me as bizarre. Chain-of-thought always makes me think of that old joke. Alexander the great was a great general. Great generals are forewarned. Forewarned is forearmed. Fo…

Yesterday I used ChatGPT to transform a csv file. Move around a couple of columns, add a few new ones. Very large file. It got them all right. Except when I really looked through the data, for 3 of the excel cells, it clearly just made up new numbers. I found the first one by accident, the remaining two took longer than it would have taken to modify the file from scratch myself. Watching my coworkers blindly trust ou…

> Yesterday I used ChatGPT to transform a csv file. Move around a couple of columns, add a few new ones. Very large file.

I'm struggling with trying to understand how using an LLM to do this seemed like a good idea in the first place.

Re: Hallucination Risk Calculator

#27
post #19

From the paper abstract, > (4) we derive the optimal chain-of-thought length as [..math..] with explicit constants I know we probably have to dive into math and abandon metaphor and analogy, but the whole structure of a claim like this just strikes me as bizarre. Chain-of-thought always makes me think of that old joke. Alexander the great was a great general. Great generals are forewarned. Forewarned is forearmed. Fo…

Yesterday I used ChatGPT to transform a csv file. Move around a couple of columns, add a few new ones. Very large file. It got them all right. Except when I really looked through the data, for 3 of the excel cells, it clearly just made up new numbers. I found the first one by accident, the remaining two took longer than it would have taken to modify the file from scratch myself. Watching my coworkers blindly trust ou…

It sometimes happens with simple things. I once pasted the announcement for an event in Claude to check for spelling and grammar.

It had a small suggestion for the last sentence and repeated the whole corrected version for me to copy and paste.

Only last sentence slightly modified - or so I thought because it had moved the date of the event in the first sentence by one day.

Luckily I caught it before posting, but it was a close call.

Re: Hallucination Risk Calculator

#29
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yesterday I used ChatGPT to transform a csv file. Move around a couple of columns, add a few new ones. Very large file. It got them all right. Except when I really looked through the data, for 3 of the excel cells, it clearly just made up new numbers. I found the first one by accident, the remaining two took longer than it would have taken to modify the file from scratch myself. Watching my coworkers blindly trust ou…

> Yesterday I used ChatGPT to transform a csv file. Move around a couple of columns, add a few new ones. Very large file. I'm struggling with trying to understand how using an LLM to do this seemed like a good idea in the first place.

When you have a shiny new hammer, everything around you takes on a nail-like aspect.

Re: Hallucination Risk Calculator

#30
post #7
post #6

Of course this is the risk, not the proof. High risk answers can be correct, low ones can still be partly hallucinated. And then there is the factor of shit-in-shit-out training data. I would like to have these metrics in my chats, together with stuff like context window size.

I just want a badge that says "ai-generated" for content thats likely ai slop on LinkedIn, Reddit, X etc.

It can never work. If it ever did work, it can be put into an adversarial training loop to make it stop working.
Post reply on HN