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AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

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Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#21

all the tech companies are filled to the brim with h1b visa holders working around the clock for average pay. this has nothing to do with ai, and everything to do with importing workers that are desperate to be here, and so work like dogs. fresh college grads are competing with foreign visa holders that have years of experience

They aren't just looking at tech jobs in the study but all job in the data set that they've coded as being AI exposed.

> We use two different approaches for measuring occupational exposure to AI. The first uses exposure measures from Eloundou et al. (2024). Eloundou et al. (2024) estimate AI exposure by ONET task using ChatGPT validated with human labeling. They then construct occupational exposure measures by aggregating the task data to the 2018 SOC code level. We focus on the GPT-4 based β exposure measures from their paper.

>The second primary approach we take uses data on generative AI usage from the Anthropic Economic Index (Handa et al., 2025). This index reports the estimated share of queries pertaining to each ONET task based on a sample of several million conversations with Claude, Anthropic’s generative AI model. It then aggregates the data to the occupational level based on these task shares. One feature of the Anthropic Economic Index is that for each task it also reports estimates of the share of queries pertaining to that task that are “automative,” “augmentative,” or none of the above. We use this information as an estimate of whether usage of AI for an occupation is primarily complementary or substitutable with labor.14

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#23
I'd love for someone who has read more of the background studies to comment on how Occupational AI Exposure is being measured. The methodology sounds reasonable but I don't know anything about how they're actually labeling tasks and how reliable that process is.

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#25
One crazy stat --

In 2024, 21% of all bachelor's degrees awarded were Computer Science from University of Maryland College Park.

It was 3% in 2011.

I don't agree with the article that AI is wrecking job prospects. I see it is as companies are just now trending towards running leaner vs hiring every good engineer available during ZIRP.

Nonetheless, it's gotta be tough out there for new grads.

https://www.usmd.edu/IRIS/DataJournal/Degrees/?report=Degree...

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#26
post #12

How many people are just assuming the study is true or false based on what you already think is the case? Better instead to use our collective brain power for something more productive. Such as digging into the various possible causal factors and understanding if the paper properly addresses and disentangles them.

Maybe, just maybe, the reason is that the economy is moving towards the dumps and nobody is hiring or firing, because they know the future is gloomy. But it makes it much nicer to say its AI that's stealing jobs to create even more hype.

Perhaps you have it backwards, and the future is gloomy because AI is wrecking young american's job prospects.

Is it possible to stay better than AI? Maybe for some people. Not for the average person. The results of that are one of the largest contributors to the gloomy future (among other things).

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#27

This could be the next iteration of stealing talent to prevent others from owning the market. An actually intelligent investor could dominate by bucking the trend and hire lots of smart, eager junior candidates. When other tech companies realize GenAI will never produce what they want, there will be a rush to re-hire developers. Top talent all started as junior talent. Grab that pool so nobody else will have it.

[deleted]

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#28
post #25

One crazy stat -- In 2024, 21% of all bachelor's degrees awarded were Computer Science from University of Maryland College Park. It was 3% in 2011. I don't agree with the article that AI is wrecking job prospects. I see it is as companies are just now trending towards running leaner vs hiring every good engineer available during ZIRP. Nonetheless, it's gotta be tough out there for new grads. https://www.usmd.edu/IRIS…

> companies are just now trending towards running leaner vs hiring every good engineer available during ZIRP

This sounds more like overproduction of entry-level computer scientists than anything AI or hiring managers are up to.

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#29
This will be very interesting.

So far in the Industrial Revolution, automating away jobs has been how we've getting richer and richer for centuries.

If AI automates away half of all jobs, and this holds we will - after an adjustment period - double GDP and collectively be twice as wealthy!

If that actually happens, it solves many currently "unsolvable" societal problems.

I'm pretty sure that it does, but the adjustment period might be longer than we'd wish.

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