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I'm worried it might get bad

danielmiessler.com

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Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#21

Post by AnimalMuppet »

I'm worried too. I share most of his concerns, but I'm going to go one step further.

We have a president who is 1) prone to make seat-of-the-pants decisions and 2) prone to over-reach presidential power. And we're going to have a population that is 1) desperate for a quick fix and 2) not willing to let anything stand in the way. The combination is a recipe for further erosion (or the complete destruction) of separation of powers, and also for catastrophic mistakes. If we slide into tyranny (whether or not it keeps a democratic facade) and have Trump - with no restraints - trying to fix the economy, God help us all.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#22

Post by mingus88 »

9999px wrote: post #3

Interesting that the author doesn't mention a reduction in working hours as a solution because I see that as THE solution. Federally mandate an 18 hour work week and job demand will soar. It's just as fanciful a thought as his other suggestions given how little power we have over the federal government to exercise our will.

Yeah that’s interesting. Imagine what could happen if AI allowed us to work fewer hours and in exchange there was a program to enable people to pursue volunteer programs in their communities

Some “it takes a village” type of mentoring for children. Or programs to spend time with the elderly. Get outside and get involved in public works projects like repairing parks and waterways.

Total fantasy, for sure, but that’s what revolutionary new tech like AI could actually benefit society by letting humans be more human.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#23

Post by mholt »

Don't worry -- soon after that, there will be high demand for human coders as companies scramble to hire to rewrite all the buggy and vuln-ridden AI-hallucinated software. We're on the verge of two revolutions in tech, not one.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#24

Post by herodotus »

It might be informative to compare this with what happened when retailers introduced automated checkout machines. It seems that the net effect on staff sizes was not that dramatic. These stores need more anti-theft security people and some oversight. Not to mention the people they need for technical support. I wonder if there will develop a new category of skills for checking that AI produced code is correct, effective and optimal?

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#25

Post by AnimalMuppet »

maxehmookau wrote: post #11
generalpf wrote: post #2

Referencing Marc Benioff making bold claims about AI isn't much evidence, he's pulling these numbers out of thin air. Despite claiming they won't hire software engineers in 2025, there are plenty of positions open at Salesforce for software engineers.

Agreed. I still think we're seeing layoffs due to _overhiring_ in 2020. AI makes a nice excuse when laying these people off because CEOs can say their huge investments in AI are starting to pay off because they don't need the humans. Turns out, they never needed those humans in the first place. That doesn't answer the other side of the problem though, that it's so hard to find work right now, even for folks who would…

Sure it does. If everybody overhired, then nobody needs to hire now. And the few places that do are inundated with all the laid-off job seekers, so odds on getting hired at one of them are very low.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#26

Post by OgsyedIE »

cwmoore wrote: post #9

Solid summary I think, but reading “what the country does if some significant percentage of our 100 million knowledge workers gets laid off because of AI” confused me deeply. Does verifying the difference between whole milk and oat milk qualify the barista as a knowledge worker?

The quote links to a BIS report which establishes that, yes, the 170-million strong US workforce really does have 100 million (actual) knowledge workers and baristas don't count. Service workers are outnumbered by computer jobs.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#27

Post by aaomidi »

mholt wrote: post #23

Don't worry -- soon after that, there will be high demand for human coders as companies scramble to hire to rewrite all the buggy and vuln-ridden AI-hallucinated software. We're on the verge of two revolutions in tech, not one.

I wouldn’t bet on this

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#28

Post by arduanika »

itsalotoffun wrote: post #16

Daniel's freaking out about an ongoing correction still playing out from '21, and finding struts to support his argument like the "30-50% of the work " is being "done by AI" nonsense lines spouted by talking suits. This is hogwash. It's standard corporate brain fart miss the actual point. Yes, 50%+ of code written might be done by AI, but pretending this is "AI doing the work" reveals the tumor that is management mis…

I want to upvote this because I agree with your points, but can't because the last line is needlessly rude to the author.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#29

Post by ramesh31 »

This article has been written once a week since the beginning of capitalism. Just insert your preferred $flavor_of_the_week global issues as supporting evidence for it.

Unfortunately we know from hundreds of years of experience now that the only actual way of identifying a recession is in hindsight. Everything else is just doomerism.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#30

Post by mongol »

9999px wrote: post #3

Interesting that the author doesn't mention a reduction in working hours as a solution because I see that as THE solution. Federally mandate an 18 hour work week and job demand will soar. It's just as fanciful a thought as his other suggestions given how little power we have over the federal government to exercise our will.

That change and everything else being equal means much less pay for workers. It is no golden bullet
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