The bear market decade the stock market has been putting off since 2021 with this AI gasping phase happens.
https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/s&p500-mean-re...
What if A.I. doesn't get better than this?
21–30 of 119 posts
Re: What if A.I. doesn't get better than this?
#22They didn't answer much of the "What if," though... Am just imagining the massive financial losses taken by so many, and if a bailout becomes necessary, because too-big-to-fail now means Microsoft, Google, Facebook et al since we transferred so much of financial engineering economics onto them since '08.
Re: What if A.I. doesn't get better than this?
#23AI doesn't need to get better than this. It is already saving millions of hours of previously wasted human productivity. The biggest threat to these companies if their products do not improve is the local running of LLMS. That would finally justify consumers buying more memory and processor speed.
Re: What if A.I. doesn't get better than this?
#24>What If A.I. Doesn't Get Better Than This? What if it does? There's a certain type of fear . . . "It's the fear . . . they're gonna take my job away . . . " It's the fear . . . I'll be working here the rest of my days . . . " -- David Fahl Same fear, different day.
Because every s-curve looks like an exponent for those in the start. I mean look at the first plane, then first air-jets: it’s understandable to assume we would travel the galaxy in something like 2050. Meanwhile planes are basically the same last 60 years. LLMs are great but I firmly believe that in 2100 all is basically the same as in 2020: no free energy (fusion), no AGI.
OTOH: First flight: 1903. Moon landing: 1969. Humanity went from ”Look, we’re 3 meters off the ground!” to “We just parked on the Moon” in barely a lifetime. 66 years.
Re: What if A.I. doesn't get better than this?
#25How can you say progress has stalled two weeks after LLMs won gold medals at IOI and IMO?
How can you say progress has stalled without having visibility on the compute costs of gpt-5 relative to o3?
How can you say progress has stalled by referring to changes in benchmarks at the frontier over just 3.5 months?
Re: What if A.I. doesn't get better than this?
#26What happens is they go out of business: "these firms spent five hundred and sixty billion dollars on A.I.-related capital expenditures in the past eighteen months, while their A.I. revenues were only about thirty-five billion." DeepSeek (and the like) will prevent the kind of price increases necessary for them to pay back hundreds of billions of dollars already spent, much less pay for more. If they don't find a way…
DeepSeek is also undercutting itself. No one is making a profit here, everyone is trying to gobble market share. Even if you have the best model and don't care to make a dime, inference is very expensive.
Re: What if A.I. doesn't get better than this?
#27>What If A.I. Doesn't Get Better Than This? What if it does? There's a certain type of fear . . . "It's the fear . . . they're gonna take my job away . . . " It's the fear . . . I'll be working here the rest of my days . . . " -- David Fahl Same fear, different day.
Because every s-curve looks like an exponent for those in the start. I mean look at the first plane, then first air-jets: it’s understandable to assume we would travel the galaxy in something like 2050. Meanwhile planes are basically the same last 60 years. LLMs are great but I firmly believe that in 2100 all is basically the same as in 2020: no free energy (fusion), no AGI.
Nature abhors an exponential. They all seem to either turn out to be sigmoid or collapse entirely.
Re: What if A.I. doesn't get better than this?
#28[dead]
Re: What if A.I. doesn't get better than this?
#29Investors are betting on growth. The public loves the hype. As a user, I already have something useful. Schadenfreude.
Re: What if A.I. doesn't get better than this?
#30>What If A.I. Doesn't Get Better Than This? What if it does? There's a certain type of fear . . . "It's the fear . . . they're gonna take my job away . . . " It's the fear . . . I'll be working here the rest of my days . . . " -- David Fahl Same fear, different day.
Nah, I'm not afraid of working here the rest of my days. Consistent paycheck, benefits, challenging-but-rewarding work. If you provide people with that they typically shut up and stay out of the way. Everyone should be more afraid of the former than the latter.
There is no plan in place at all for the outcome of most work becoming redundant. At least in the US I highly doubt we will be capable of implementing some system such as UBI for the benefit of all citizens so everyone can take advantage of most work being automated. Everyone will be left to pick up scraps and barely survive.
But I am extremely skeptical that current "AI" will be capable of eliminating so much of the modern workforce any time soon if ever. I can see it becoming a common place tool, maybe it already has, but not as a human replacement.