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Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

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Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#21

Post by dragontamer »

gonzo41 wrote: post #19
throwaway29303 wrote: post #13

Can someone, more informed than me, about the job landscape, name these jobs people keep claiming AI is creating? Thank you in advance.

Seriously, carpenters and plumbers and maybe more electricians. All those copy writers, graphic designers and junior coders are going to have to do something else. I'm joking, but not. I think a lot of fat is going to get trimmed of the bone of most industries. That may include myself which is a worry.

That's not job creation. That's job destruction.

With this much shoddy code out there, I'm expecting a LOT more testers are going to be needed. This is job creation but not the good kind.

Think Tesla Optimus robot grabbing popcorn. Instead of one cashier filling bags of popcorn, you now have a dedicated teleoperator + sweeper to pickup all the popcorn that's spilled. One job turned into two jobs.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#22

Post by stego-tech »

xg15 wrote: post #16
janitor77swe wrote: post #12

I don't understand such statement. Automation has already created more job opportunities, why should this be any different? Jobs don't go away, they just transform. And since this AI (whatever that means, nobody really knows) isn't a human-like AGI, it will most certainly not replace humans, but it will automate processes and speed things up. If you're a business that offers 3 services to the public and "AI" could au…

> Automation has already created more job opportunities, why should this be any different? This is the "the climate has changed before" argument for economics. > why would do that as opposed to keeping your headcount and instead offer 9 services to the public generating more streams of revenue? Because there might not be enough demand for those 9 services.

Especially when companies lay off the workers that would normally consume license seats or purchase consumer goods with job wages.

Funny how all these boosters bragging about automating the economy seem to conveniently forget how much of the economy, in some way, is based around headcount and consumption - both of which are going down due to AI with no replacement being pitched, almost as if that were the plan all along.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#23

Post by deepthunder »

janitor77swe wrote: post #12

I don't understand such statement. Automation has already created more job opportunities, why should this be any different? Jobs don't go away, they just transform. And since this AI (whatever that means, nobody really knows) isn't a human-like AGI, it will most certainly not replace humans, but it will automate processes and speed things up. If you're a business that offers 3 services to the public and "AI" could au…

>If you're a business that offers 3 services to the public and "AI" could automate one person's salary out of your payroll, why would do that as opposed to keeping your headcount and instead offer 9 services to the public generating more streams of revenue?

Because cost cutting increases share-holder value. See Jack Welch at GE. Over time he destroyed the company but also raised the share price tremendously.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#24

Post by guywithahat »

throwaway29303 wrote: post #13

Can someone, more informed than me, about the job landscape, name these jobs people keep claiming AI is creating? Thank you in advance.

It's just basic economics; when something makes the economy more efficient, it doesn't destroy jobs forever, people get new, better jobs in a more efficient economy.

Perhaps AI will finally raise the bar so high lower-IQ individuals won't be able to find any meaningful employment, but this has never happened in before and I doubt it'll happen again. I don't think I've seen a respected economist go on a news broadcast and say AI will lead to mass unemployment.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#25

Post by storus »

throwaway29303 wrote: post #13

Can someone, more informed than me, about the job landscape, name these jobs people keep claiming AI is creating? Thank you in advance.

Anything that contains drudgery that nobody wants to do. AI is automating away all the cool creative jobs, leaving only the garbage ones. Once robotics is up there, those garbage jobs will be gone as well. Then the humanity implodes within 2 generations.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#26

Post by schnable »

> He used his AI startup, Emma.love, to further drive the point home. He indicated that he was able to build the app with the help of two other software developers, a task that would have otherwise required the manpower of "over 350 developers in the past."

Looking at the product, the idea that this would take 350 developers is likely complete nonsense. It also indicates that the recent big tech layoffs and hiring reductions are simply removing bloat, not AI driven.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#27

Post by kingstnap »

throwaway29303 wrote: post #13

Can someone, more informed than me, about the job landscape, name these jobs people keep claiming AI is creating? Thank you in advance.

There are a profound number of people who now seem to just spend all day giving interviews and yapping about their AI takes.

Geoffrey Hinton seems to be in the headlines constantly going "godfather of AI" and giving some random obtuse warning or call for action.

Eric Schmidt also spends a lot of time yapping.

And of course people like Gary Marcus.

Simon Willison also does a lot of writing but at least his blog is actually useful information of actual tests and news.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#28

Post by kelipso »

guywithahat wrote: post #24
throwaway29303 wrote: post #13

Can someone, more informed than me, about the job landscape, name these jobs people keep claiming AI is creating? Thank you in advance.

It's just basic economics; when something makes the economy more efficient, it doesn't destroy jobs forever, people get new, better jobs in a more efficient economy. Perhaps AI will finally raise the bar so high lower-IQ individuals won't be able to find any meaningful employment, but this has never happened in before and I doubt it'll happen again. I don't think I've seen a respected economist go on a news broadcast…

Yeah, lower IQ people can use AI too...it might even close the gap to the high IQ people depending on their talents, what they learn, what they apply it to, and so on.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#29

Post by ninininino »

throwaway29303 wrote: post #13

Can someone, more informed than me, about the job landscape, name these jobs people keep claiming AI is creating? Thank you in advance.

Probably if the capital owners who have automated away the need for intellectual labor want to take advantage of their increased income and the increasingly cheap/desperate labor, they might hire back some of the fired white-collar AI-replaced folks to give them Roman villa treatment (hand-feeding grapes, performing plays and theater at their homes, ever more elaborate massage/grooming/pampering or the more illicit variety).

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#30

Post by stego-tech »

It’s what us doomers have been saying all along: Even if we’re wrong and these LLMs can replace all or most professional jobs, it won’t create new jobs to replace the lost ones because the AI can replace most labor. For a global economy built on consumers spending money on goods and services, this is a death spiral where fewer jobs mean fewer consumers, which weakens demand, which lowers revenues (corporate and tax alike), which inflates asset prices (the sole things appreciating in value that can’t be fabricated by AI), which displaces more workers, which further decreases revenues…

You get the idea. This is bad, it’s always going to be bad, and the only fix is a fundamental reorientation of global civilization away from “profit at all costs” and towards better metrics that reflect the health and wealth of a populace than GDP. Doing that would require existing power barons cede their control and cooperate on building such a new system, which they emphatically do not want to do.

We’re fucked, basically, has been our position all along. Either AI via LLMs is the real deal and the economy collapses because corporate and political leaders are too stupid to understand macroeconomics and labor issues, or AI via LLMs is bullshit and the economy collapses because we let the rich and powerful light money on fire for years in pursuit of a boondoggle.

There is no good ending here under current incentives and motives, and not one AI company has actually bothered to challenge or change those so that AI becomes a positive force.

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