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What the Windsurf sale means for the AI coding ecosystem

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21–30 of 53 posts

Re: What the Windsurf sale means for the AI coding ecosystem

#21

this reminds me when early on in Github Copilot journey when people were asking "what if it accidentally reproduces GPL code and I get sued" and Microsoft said they'll cover the legal costs for anyone using Github Copilot. The big players (Google, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia) don't want ai startups failing. In fact they are terrified of that. Can you imagine the market shock if windsurf just went under in 1 year. How fea…

So like crypto bubble with extra steps

Re: What the Windsurf sale means for the AI coding ecosystem

#23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So Google writes a check for $2.4B to Windsurf and gets the IP. Check deposited with Windsurf. Ledger entries made. Windsurf now has $2.4B in assets more than it had before. Money in the bank. Preference cliffs do not apply to this licensing deal. Key employees and CEO then take a 2.4 mile hike over to Google. Lunch is served. Then Cognition offers $250M for Windsurf itself. Ok, I can imagine the preference cliffs ki…

1.2B went to investors, the remaining 1.2B was actually an incentive/payout for the founders/employees that google took. The company basically has whatever money it had in the bank, plus a bit more from Google - but no investor liabilities.

Ok, Google can pay $1.2B to the CEO and key employees to get them to walk. The other $1.2B is for the Windsurf IP and it cannot go directly to the investors. It has to go through the company where it is first revenue and then an asset.

But Windsurf could distribute profit at this point before the Cognition deal. I guess this is where the preference rights got exercised. The tweet from employee #2 said his stock wasn't worth anything. Actually, he got preferenced out of the $1.2B in dividends.

Then came the $250M Cognition deal. He got preferenced out of the proceeds of the Cognition deal as well.

Re: What the Windsurf sale means for the AI coding ecosystem

#25
I like how there’s like 17 instances of using square brackets as parentheses, but also actual parentheses, & almost nothing is capitalized, even acronyms, except for the cases where they feel like acronyms actually should be capitalized. and the .log file is a screenshot of cat-ing a .txt file which has formatting in it

Re: What the Windsurf sale means for the AI coding ecosystem

#26

This is a highly speculative post, with conjectures presented as facts. Some things that irked me: - Cursor did not hire Anthropic's "researchers". It hired the guys who built Claude code (PM and dev). Who then promptly went back to Anthropic in 14 days. A researcher for Cursor need not come from Anthropic either. One high profile recruit for them was Jack Gallagher (Midjourney) who is probably one of the best at RL.…

> Google's deal with Windsurf is structured that way because they likely could not directly acquire, or were not confident that it would have gotten past the antitrust

I've been following OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft's acquisitions over the last five years, and the US government has given them the green light when it comes to AI. It makes sense since the FTC and DOJ directors are appointed by the government, and the government is concerned about China's advances in AI.

Also, Google pulled the same move Microsoft did with Inflection AI. They hired Windsurf's CEO, its co-founder, and other key people, and licensed Windsurfs codebase without acquiring the company. It was the smartest business move they could make.

So from a business and political point of view, your assumption doesn't hold up.

> Openai's agreements with Microsoft is more probable than they did not complete the acquisition because of negative gross margins.

This is also incorrect and the first time I've heard this reason. Executives have already told reporters that OpenAI and Microsoft have an agreement, and Microsoft doesn't want OpenAI entering the software development arena. They hold the keys to GitHub, and that's keeping everyone out for now, including Google.

> Plus, the old adage about how a growing startup is worth more because of a stellar team. You strip a team away and still get 2x multiple is sure enough valuing the current ARR highly.

I don't think so. Investors back people first, and in AI, the people are everything. Just look at how much Meta is willing to pay top AI researchers. OpenAI, Microsoft, and Google are all chasing the same talent. Knowledge is extremely valuable when it comes to AI/ML.

Google learned this the hard way when it let Noam Shazeer leave. When they realised how valuable he was, they ended up paying $2.7 billion to bring him back.

Re: What the Windsurf sale means for the AI coding ecosystem

#27

this reminds me when early on in Github Copilot journey when people were asking "what if it accidentally reproduces GPL code and I get sued" and Microsoft said they'll cover the legal costs for anyone using Github Copilot. The big players (Google, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia) don't want ai startups failing. In fact they are terrified of that. Can you imagine the market shock if windsurf just went under in 1 year. How fea…

So like crypto bubble with extra steps

Its the same people, so yes.

Re: What the Windsurf sale means for the AI coding ecosystem

#28

I like how there’s like 17 instances of using square brackets as parentheses, but also actual parentheses, & almost nothing is capitalized, even acronyms, except for the cases where they feel like acronyms actually should be capitalized. and the .log file is a screenshot of cat-ing a .txt file which has formatting in it

> and the .log file is a screenshot of cat-ing a .txt file which has formatting in it

I guess replacing some bytes of text with 30KB of PNG is what happens when the platform you've chosen to use doesn't support the formatting you actually want.

Re: What the Windsurf sale means for the AI coding ecosystem

#29

This is a highly speculative post, with conjectures presented as facts. Some things that irked me: - Cursor did not hire Anthropic's "researchers". It hired the guys who built Claude code (PM and dev). Who then promptly went back to Anthropic in 14 days. A researcher for Cursor need not come from Anthropic either. One high profile recruit for them was Jack Gallagher (Midjourney) who is probably one of the best at RL.…

Every single article on this domain is just human hallucination. Little to none research and due diligence done.

By the way, The latest article before this one was "tokens are getting more expensive". (One week before $1.25/$10 GPT5 releases. Talking about aging like milk...)

Re: What the Windsurf sale means for the AI coding ecosystem

#30

This is a highly speculative post, with conjectures presented as facts. Some things that irked me: - Cursor did not hire Anthropic's "researchers". It hired the guys who built Claude code (PM and dev). Who then promptly went back to Anthropic in 14 days. A researcher for Cursor need not come from Anthropic either. One high profile recruit for them was Jack Gallagher (Midjourney) who is probably one of the best at RL.…

Every single article on this domain is just human hallucination. Little to none research and due diligence done. By the way, The latest article before this one was "tokens are getting more expensive". (One week before $1.25/$10 GPT5 releases. Talking about aging like milk...)

There are tells that it’s not written by a human, but it’s harder to know how much it’s guided.
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