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The GPT-5 Launch Was Concerning

blog.charliemeyer.co

21–30 of 97 posts

Re: The GPT-5 Launch Was Concerning

#21
Am I right to say that "AGI" was just...cancelled again?

Did we just get scammed right in front of our eyes with an overhyped release and what is now an underwhelming model if the point was that GPT-5 was supposed to be trustworthy enough for serious use-cases and it can't even count or reason about letters?

So much for the "AGI has been achieved internally" nonsense with the VCs and paid shills on X/Twitter bullshitting about the model before the release.

Re: The GPT-5 Launch Was Concerning

#22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet altman talks about AGI being imminent, but his company has only ever produced LLMs.

Now why would the CEO of an AI company say something like that!?

Is it a given that they need to unrealistically hype everything? To me it just seems like he's killing any and all credibility he had

Probably a bad long term strategy?

I mean other non-AI companies use hype too sure.. but it's maybe a little sprinkle of 1.1x on top aimed to highlight their best features. Here we're going full on 100x of reality

Re: The GPT-5 Launch Was Concerning

#23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For sure, but not for that reason; there is currently no one with a plan how to go from current (LLMs) to a better model. It's some 'more focused training' 'better prompting' 'agentic' 'smarter lookups' 'better tooling'. But fundamentally, this model is simply shagged out and it'll get a little better with the above, but the jump everyone is waiting for cannot happen without a new model invention.

My point is; maybe we can't prove that until deepmind gives us their best shot

But aren't deepmind, in this infinite money AI times, giving it their best shot?

Re: The GPT-5 Launch Was Concerning

#24
post #16

I asked it to make a drawing of the US with every state numbered from biggest to smallest with 1 being the largest. Maine was #89 (That is not a typo.) and Oregon was #1. OpenAI as a company simply cannot exist without a constant influx of investor money. Burning money on every request is not a viable business model. Companies built on OpenAI/Anthropic are similarly deeply unprofitable businesses. OpenAI needs to con…

Does it get the non-drawing written text list version right at least?

Re: The GPT-5 Launch Was Concerning

#25
post #16

I asked it to make a drawing of the US with every state numbered from biggest to smallest with 1 being the largest. Maine was #89 (That is not a typo.) and Oregon was #1. OpenAI as a company simply cannot exist without a constant influx of investor money. Burning money on every request is not a viable business model. Companies built on OpenAI/Anthropic are similarly deeply unprofitable businesses. OpenAI needs to con…

burning money worked for Uber. As long as they can IPO or get cheap debt from governm friends any valuation can work. Uber lost double digit billions as an app with no edge or anythin. It always made no sense beyond 1 billion

Uber's whole schtick is being what was an already profitable business model (Taxis) with lower overhead/easier access.

That money they burned was on customer acquisition, building infrastructure, etc. The unit economics of paying to be driven to the airport or Benihanas was always net positive.

They weren't losing money on every customer, even paying ones. There just isn't a business model here.

Re: The GPT-5 Launch Was Concerning

#27

Yes, GPT-5 is more of an iteration than anything else, and to me this says more about OpenAI than the rest of the industry. However, I think the majority of the improvements over the past year have been difficult to quantify using benchmarks. Users often talk about how certain models "feel" smarter on their particular tasks, and we won't know if the same is true for GPT-5 until people use it for a while. The "GPT-5 w…

> Do we really want to replace humans?

Unfortunately for a substantial number of people the answer to this question seems to be a resounding "yes"

Re: The GPT-5 Launch Was Concerning

#28
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think anyone serious is talking about AGI from LLMs, no.

Only if you consider Sam Altman not serious: https://www.tomsguide.com/ai/chatgpt/sam-altman-claims-agi-i... I find this pattern in tech hype really frustrating. Someone in a leadership role in a major tech company/VC promises something outrageous. Time passes and the promise never materializes. People then retcon the idea that "everybody knew that wasn't going to happen". Well either "everybody" doesn't include Elon…

> Only if you consider Sam Altman not serious

> Elon Musk[1], Sam Altman, or Marc Andreessen[2] ... these people are liars.

Bingo. These people are salesmen & marketers. Lying to sell a product (including gathering funding & pumping company stock) is literally the job description. If they weren't good at it, they wouldn't hold the positions they do.

Re: The GPT-5 Launch Was Concerning

#29
the whole event was shit, but we're all past the point where we can just say that, because the technology is now so entrenched that it's become unavoidable, so everything has now to jump through hoops to justify its existence and its greatness

Re: The GPT-5 Launch Was Concerning

#30
post #16

I asked it to make a drawing of the US with every state numbered from biggest to smallest with 1 being the largest. Maine was #89 (That is not a typo.) and Oregon was #1. OpenAI as a company simply cannot exist without a constant influx of investor money. Burning money on every request is not a viable business model. Companies built on OpenAI/Anthropic are similarly deeply unprofitable businesses. OpenAI needs to con…

burning money worked for Uber. As long as they can IPO or get cheap debt from governm friends any valuation can work. Uber lost double digit billions as an app with no edge or anythin. It always made no sense beyond 1 billion

> burning money worked for Uber.

TBD. Some people did well while Uber gave money away, but Uber is not net profitable over its lifetime.

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