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A Hitchhiker's Guide to the AI Bubble

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Re: A Hitchhiker's Guide to the AI Bubble

#21
post #18
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hey, at least this one is willing to admit that they aren't building Machine Jesus. That's a start.

"I come to bury Caesar, not to praise him..." A rhetorical technique as old as dirt, but apparently still effective.

"Now let it work. Mischief, thou art afoot, take thou what course thou wilt!"

But seriously, it isn't on me to justify my skepticism of the extreme claim, "We are in a race to build machine super-intelligence" because that skepticism is the rational default. Instead it's the burden of people who claim that we are in fact in that race, just like "self driving next year" was a claim for others to prove, just like "Crypto is the future of money" is a statement requiring a high degree of support.

We've seen this all before, and in the end the argument in favor seems to boil down to, "Look at how much money we're moving around with this hype" and "Trust us, the best is yet to come."

Maybe this time it will.

Re: A Hitchhiker's Guide to the AI Bubble

#22
The article resonates. AI coding assistants are cool and fun to use, but they just help solve a solved problem faster. The really exciting thing is exploring the new problems we can solve with this tool. It has really reignited my passion for building.

Re: A Hitchhiker's Guide to the AI Bubble

#24
post #6

The author misses the deeper game: if you genuinely believe AGI is imminent, then current economic metrics become meaningless. Why optimize for revenue when the entire concept of scarcity-based economics dissolves? The $560B for those who believe in AGI isn't about ROI using today's money-in/money-out formula; it's about power positioning for a post-capitalist transition. Every major player knows that whoever control…

The problem with this is that it's entirely evidence free.

I could also say, if you truly believe nuclear fusion is imminent we will have infinite free energy and all current economic metrics are meaningless. But there is no nuclear fusion bubble. Why not? Because people don't believe nuclear fusion is imminent. But for some reason they do believe AGI is imminent - despite there being no actual evidence of that. There is probably less understanding of what is needed to close the gap to true AGI than there is to close the gap to make nuclear fusion possible.

The only distinction here is what people are willing to "believe" based on pure conjecture - which is why I class it as a true bubble.

Re: A Hitchhiker's Guide to the AI Bubble

#25

Great article! I share the experience mentioned in the article, LLMs facilitate a head-on interaction with any topic. It is similar to instructional YouTube videos (that imo were already transformative) but with the ability to ask detailed questions. And this is what becomes better with each iteration. When creative communities finally settle down on generative AI there will be not just a plethora of AI slop, but so…

There’s already a new golden age of indie low budget movies. Those guys will not use AI to generate significant parts of their content, because it defeats the point of making an indie movie at all.

I never cease to be shocked at how little tech people think of what creative people do and why they do it.

Re: A Hitchhiker's Guide to the AI Bubble

#26
post #22

The article resonates. AI coding assistants are cool and fun to use, but they just help solve a solved problem faster. The really exciting thing is exploring the new problems we can solve with this tool. It has really reignited my passion for building.

Businesses realizing a lot of their problems are already solved will be of great help to developers.

I'm extremely tired of bespoke solutions when OTS or already-known would work just fine.

Re: A Hitchhiker's Guide to the AI Bubble

#27
post #16

I think a key point from this article that I agree strongly with is the simple point that it is crucial that everyone recognise we are currently in an AI bubble . I often find people contest this with the non-sequitur of "No, it's not a bubble, there is real value there. We are building things with it". The fact there is real value in the technology does not contradict in any way that we are in a bubble. It may even…

The fact everyone thinks we are in an AI bubble is practically proof we are not in an AI bubble.

The crowd is always wrong on these things. Just like everyone "knew" we were going into a deep recession sometime in late 2022, early 2023. The crowd has an incredibly short memory too.

What it means is that people are really cautious about AI. That is not a self reinforcing, fear of missing out, explosive process bubble. That is a classic bull market climbing a wall of worry.

Re: A Hitchhiker's Guide to the AI Bubble

#29
post #15

> Within weeks I built a serverless system processing 5 million social media posts daily, tracking topic clusters and emerging narratives in real-time. Then brand monitoring dashboards. Then a "robojournalist" that could deep-dive any trending story. Then hardware and firmware specs for a coffee machine. Then my first mobile app. I call bullshit. Let's see some repos.

5 million social media posts is like <1% of all the posts out there. Its just a weekend project

Re: A Hitchhiker's Guide to the AI Bubble

#30
post #16

I think a key point from this article that I agree strongly with is the simple point that it is crucial that everyone recognise we are currently in an AI bubble . I often find people contest this with the non-sequitur of "No, it's not a bubble, there is real value there. We are building things with it". The fact there is real value in the technology does not contradict in any way that we are in a bubble. It may even…

The fact everyone thinks we are in an AI bubble is practically proof we are not in an AI bubble. The crowd is always wrong on these things. Just like everyone "knew" we were going into a deep recession sometime in late 2022, early 2023. The crowd has an incredibly short memory too. What it means is that people are really cautious about AI. That is not a self reinforcing, fear of missing out, explosive process bubble.…

But it's not true that everyone thinks we are in an AI bubble.
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