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The Hater's Guide to the AI Bubble
21–30 of 168 posts
Re: The Hater's Guide to the AI Bubble
#22These sound very much in tone like the criticisms of Web 1.0 AI/LLMs are an infant technology, it’s at the beginning. It took many many years until people figured out how to use the internet for more than just copying corporate brochures into HTML. I put it to you that the truly valuable applications of AI/LLMs are yet to be invented and will be truly surprising when they come (which they must of course otherwise we’…
Actually Amara, not Amdahl I think.
Re: The Hater's Guide to the AI Bubble
#23Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Military contracts. They need to live on government money to sustain growth. Meta makes 99% of its revenue from advertising (according to the article). Google, similarly, makes most of its money from advertising. Tesla makes money by selling cars (there's no indication the government is going to transform their fleets to Tesla vehicles; in fact, they're openly hostile to EVs). Apply needs to rely on US government m…
OP is speaking about the next source of growth , not existing revenue streams.
> next source of growth
How large is the US military contract market for the kinds of products and services these companies produce?
For reference, their combined 2024 revenue was around $2 Trillion.
Re: The Hater's Guide to the AI Bubble
#24Keep up the good work, but this could be said with more strength and in far fewer words by removing the indulgent rambling.
Re: The Hater's Guide to the AI Bubble
#25I think the author's take is overly bleak. Yes, he supports his claim that AI businesses are currently money pits and unsustainable. But I don't think it's reasonable to claim that AI can't be profitable. This whole thing is moving so extremely fast. Models are getting better by the month. Cost is rapidly coming down. We broadly speaking still don't know how to apply AI. I think it's hubris to claim that, in the wake…
It is not about profitability alone, but whether benefits are net positive for society over the long term.
Profitability is easy with current standards. Get the users. Make them dependent. Increase the price. Make AI mandatory. List goes on.
Re: The Hater's Guide to the AI Bubble
#26Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Military contracts. They need to live on government money to sustain growth. Meta makes 99% of its revenue from advertising (according to the article). Google, similarly, makes most of its money from advertising. Tesla makes money by selling cars (there's no indication the government is going to transform their fleets to Tesla vehicles; in fact, they're openly hostile to EVs). Apply needs to rely on US government m…
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/mark-zuckerbergs-met...
Microsoft's $22 billion (wasted) IVAS was a fiasco, now they are doubling down:
https://breakingdefense.com/2025/01/army-kickstarts-possible...
Of course it won't work. These tech companies have no clue about the real world and humans.
Re: The Hater's Guide to the AI Bubble
#27I think the author's take is overly bleak. Yes, he supports his claim that AI businesses are currently money pits and unsustainable. But I don't think it's reasonable to claim that AI can't be profitable. This whole thing is moving so extremely fast. Models are getting better by the month. Cost is rapidly coming down. We broadly speaking still don't know how to apply AI. I think it's hubris to claim that, in the wake…
It is not about profitability alone, but whether benefits are net positive for society over the long term. Profitability is easy with current standards. Get the users. Make them dependent. Increase the price. Make AI mandatory. List goes on.
From a quick skim, at least 90% of the article is about profitability. The remaining 10% is mostly bragging.
Re: The Hater's Guide to the AI Bubble
#28.
> it's easily possible that these companies are integrating AI into existing lines of business to make them more profitable
Has this effect been demonstrated by any company yet? AFAIK it has not, but I could be wrong. This seems like a rather large "what if"
Re: The Hater's Guide to the AI Bubble
#29damn he doesn't say when the shorts should start
Re: The Hater's Guide to the AI Bubble
#30Earlier quoted context omitted.
OP is speaking about the next source of growth , not existing revenue streams.
> next source of growth How large is the US military contract market for the kinds of products and services these companies produce? For reference, their combined 2024 revenue was around $2 Trillion.
Surveillance? They have an exceptionally valuable product if they package it right.