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Betting against YouTube Financial Influencers beat the S&P 500 (risky though)?

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Re: Betting against YouTube Financial Influencers beat the S&P 500 (risky though)?

#21

Post by Ekaros »

Corgipower12 wrote: post #9
GianFabien wrote: post #8

Contrarians betting against the herd have often been very successful. For example, John Paulson and Michael Burry made billions by shorting CDOs that lead to the 2008 crisis. The movie "The Big Short" is an Ok dramatization of how it all unfolded. Same herd mentality, different soapbox.

I wonder if it is because we hear about people who are successful betting against the herd.

Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent... We just rarely present those who became insolvent unless it was massive screwup. And even then, well they don't get movies.

Re: Betting against YouTube Financial Influencers beat the S&P 500 (risky though)?

#23

Post by Corgipower12 »

lcnPylGDnU4H9OF wrote: post #20
Corgipower12 wrote: post #2

We analyzed hundreds of stock recommendation videos from finance YouTubers (aka finfluencers) and backtested the results. Turns out, doing the opposite of what they say—literally inverting the advice—beat the S&P 500 by over +6.8% in annual returns (but with higher volatility).

Even just in name, "finance influencer" sounds very similar to "market manipulator".

Influencers often market things and make money off things other than being good at [name a skill or thing they are influencing]. For finance previous work has shown that financial influencers are are worse advice givers are actually the more popular ones.

Re: Betting against YouTube Financial Influencers beat the S&P 500 (risky though)?

#24

Post by Corgipower12 »

gtani wrote: post #18

No idea about any of these channels but there are some on YT that give good global macro coverage: - Vix, IV vs realized/historical - option flows - market makers gex, skews, (1st 3 probably best src of edge) - /NQ and /ES trading volume, - bond yld curve, credit spreads, how much prim dealers hold after long auctions, PBC holdings - metals - geopolitical: Europe / middle East / China/ South America - energy - curren…

Like anything, I am sure there is good work out there. The keys is properly identifying which are good and which are bad.

Re: Betting against YouTube Financial Influencers beat the S&P 500 (risky though)?

#25

Post by Ekaros »

When you really think about it. If these people were really good, would they need to be influencers? Wouldn't they actually be spending all of their time managing either their own money or some other big money fund?

So on average they probably are not that good as they really need to do all the marketing. Which is actually quite big time commitment.

Re: Betting against YouTube Financial Influencers beat the S&P 500 (risky though)?

#26

Post by Ekaros »

lcnPylGDnU4H9OF wrote: post #20
Corgipower12 wrote: post #2

We analyzed hundreds of stock recommendation videos from finance YouTubers (aka finfluencers) and backtested the results. Turns out, doing the opposite of what they say—literally inverting the advice—beat the S&P 500 by over +6.8% in annual returns (but with higher volatility).

Even just in name, "finance influencer" sounds very similar to "market manipulator".

Not necessarily... Depends on what they peddle, but could be just your motivational speaker, self-help or course grifter.

Re: Betting against YouTube Financial Influencers beat the S&P 500 (risky though)?

#27

Post by Corgipower12 »

Ekaros wrote: post #25

When you really think about it. If these people were really good, would they need to be influencers? Wouldn't they actually be spending all of their time managing either their own money or some other big money fund? So on average they probably are not that good as they really need to do all the marketing. Which is actually quite big time commitment.

Your thought is that monetization often depends more on visibility than performance and that getting views on any platform these days also requires marketing? Fair point.

Re: Betting against YouTube Financial Influencers beat the S&P 500 (risky though)?

#28

Post by kylecazar »

Corgipower12 wrote: post #15
chistev wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what does it mean to be aware?

My 2 cents TLDR: seize opportunity but based on sound analysis and caution, not blind optimism. I think they are saying something of the effect of: 1. The short trade (The Big Short or similar trades during the housing bubble) happened during a period of market euphoria. I.e. when most investors were irrationally confident and greedy. 2. Instead of sitting out or being fearful (as Buffett's original advice would sugg…

Precisely my take, thanks for the elaboration!

Re: Betting against YouTube Financial Influencers beat the S&P 500 (risky though)?

#29

Post by Corgipower12 »

Ekaros wrote: post #26
lcnPylGDnU4H9OF wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even just in name, "finance influencer" sounds very similar to "market manipulator".

Not necessarily... Depends on what they peddle, but could be just your motivational speaker, self-help or course grifter.

Studies have been done that show that. Of course, if it is an old study, results need to be run on new data.

Re: Betting against YouTube Financial Influencers beat the S&P 500 (risky though)?

#30

Post by Corgipower12 »

extraduder_ire wrote: post #16
Corgipower12 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't benchmarked inverse Cramer recently, but last I heard not too well: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/187612o/inv... Anyone know how it is doing recently?

I've thought inverse-Cramer was doomed ever since he shouted it out on twitter. Kind of short-circuits the whole thing.

Yep! Markets are theoretically efficient.
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