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Earlier quoted context omitted.
Cool. Meanwhile in the real world that isn't governed by science fiction, we're dealing with a billionaire using LLMs to wage information warfare towards explicitly white supremacist ends right now . Let's focus on that right now?
could you provide more details on this?
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jul/14/elon-musk...
p(doom) is 100% and it's silly to think it's anything less. As soon as anyone figures out how to build SI, all it takes is one person to run off with the secret sauce and build a malevolent version of it.
Cool. Meanwhile in the real world that isn't governed by science fiction, we're dealing with a billionaire using LLMs to wage information warfare towards explicitly white supremacist ends right now . Let's focus on that right now?
Armies of killer robots are real now. Ukraine makes about 4 million military drones a year. Russia makes slightly fewer. Control is becoming more automated, because there are not enough people to control all those drones. Drones have to operate despite jamming, so they need to be fully autonomous on the battlefield. And yes, there are AI killbot startups.[1] "At SECL Group, our team has vast experience in developing…
Elon Musk, pfft. Mark Zuckerberg is a much more plausible concern.
Zuckerberg is incompetent. He was lucky, and that's all, with Facebook and has coasted on its momentum ever since. Every single "play" after that has failed. Not only have they failed, he's even fallen into the dictator's trap: where wealthy men who surround themselves with multiple layers of overlapping and competing of staff and hierarchy which act to completely insulate and isolate them from reality start or fund…
p(doom) is 100% and it's silly to think it's anything less. As soon as anyone figures out how to build SI, all it takes is one person to run off with the secret sauce and build a malevolent version of it.
But consider, in the alternate universe where we never invent AI, economic p(doom) is also 100%. Humans are fragile and short-lived.
Elon Musk, pfft. Mark Zuckerberg is a much more plausible concern.
Zuckerberg is incompetent. He was lucky, and that's all, with Facebook and has coasted on its momentum ever since. Every single "play" after that has failed. Not only have they failed, he's even fallen into the dictator's trap: where wealthy men who surround themselves with multiple layers of overlapping and competing of staff and hierarchy which act to completely insulate and isolate them from reality start or fund…
Yeah, scuba is cool, but I've got a handful of pet engineering projects I'd love to tinker on if I won the lottery (while farming off any drudge work that comes up). I assume all the businesspeople and politicians I also observe to fall into this trap just do the same with their particular area of expertise.
I don't think Elon has any malice towards his own species. I tend to agree with the first comment on the article, re: p(dystopia), where almost all LLM services are currently in play, mostly due to the actions of third party clients.
Unfortunately, recovering from that state and returning to normality (and gaining/regaining the ability to face oneself seriously and make amends when necessary) usually requires having multiple supportive friends. Elon hasn't been in a position to get for years.
Everybody looks at AI 2027 and nobody looks at Gradual Disempowerment. They both came out at around the same time and they both portend tremendous volumes of doom with a litany of citations, but the preexisting skynet/paperclipper memes means that nobody talks at length about the scenario of a few hundred human owners using AI servants to eliminate everybody else out of an incremental slippery slope of good business…
Over the last several decades we've seen an enormous transfer and consolidation of wealth from many people into a much smaller number of people. I think AI is going to dramatically accelerate this.
Fully open source, locally-hosted AI models are currently lagging far behind their commercial counterparts (in adoption if not capability). The web had a free-for-all period run by free software where it was able to gestate and gain traction before the walled garden era took over. Application development likewise had a long period of time where independent developers were able to build and distribute software (for free or otherwise) before the app store model took over; now, a significant portion of software development needs to be authorized by a third party before it can be distributed to potential users.
We did not get that same gestational period for AI. It went from theory to commercial product astonishingly fast. There are daily threads on HN now comparing how much everyone is "happy" to pay for their favorite commercial AI each month.
Developers are paying companies for the privilege of writing software.
The developers that, for whatever reason, refuse to get on board this train are going to be quickly outcompeted by the rest. Maybe they have been already.
It's likely that by about 2028 or thereabouts, we will see a landscape where just a few commercial entities will have captured the process of software development. If you want to make money making software, you will have to pay one of them to do it.
p(doom) is 100% and it's silly to think it's anything less. As soon as anyone figures out how to build SI, all it takes is one person to run off with the secret sauce and build a malevolent version of it.
Eh, AI-driven p(doom) is only 100% if there is no intelligence ceiling around the human level. But consider, in the alternate universe where we never invent AI, economic p(doom) is also 100%. Humans are fragile and short-lived. https://youtu.be/b5z5R6xqEG0
Gary Marcus has a dichotomy between extinction versus bad actors. I feel a third possibiltiy is much more likely: a world of extreme specialization where AI reigns supreme, and where humans are mainly button-pushers. Those at the top and who still enjoy life will be the techies who are good at and enjoy making things with AI, which will be approximately 1% of the population. The other 99% will be administrators, butt…