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Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

thealgorithmicbridge.com

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Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#21

Post by Touche »

delusional wrote: post #11
matusp wrote: post #8

Observe what the AI companies are doing, not what they are saying. If they would expect to achieve AGI soon, their behaviour would be completely different. Why bother developing chatbots or doing sales, when you will be operating AGI in a few short years? Surely, all resources should go towards that goal, as it is supposed to usher the humanity into a new prosperous age (somehow).

Continuing in the same vain. Why would they force their super valuable, highly desirable, profit maximizing chat-bots down your throat? Observations of reality is more consistent with company FOMO than with actual usefulness.

Because it's valuable training data. Like how having Google Maps on everyone's phone made their map data better.

Personally I think AGI is ill-defined and won't happen as a new model release. Instead the thing to look for is how LLMs are being used in AI research and there are some advances happening there.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#22

Post by deergomoo »

impossiblefork wrote: post #19
bestouff wrote: post #3

Are there some people here in HN believing in AGI "soonish" ?

I might, depending on the definition. Some kind of verbal-only-AGI that can solve almost all mathematical problems that humans come up with that can be solved in half a page. I think that's achievable somewhere in the near term, 2-7 years.

Is that “general” though? I’ve always taken AGI to mean general to any problem.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#23

Post by Davidzheng »

bestouff wrote: post #3

Are there some people here in HN believing in AGI "soonish" ?

what's your definition? AGI original definition is median human across almost all fields which I believe is basically achieved. If superhuman (better than best expert) I expect <2030 for all nonrobotic tasks and <2035 for all tasks

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#24

Post by Touche »

zaphirplane wrote: post #18
rvz wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. For example, Microsoft was building data centers all over the world since "AGI" was "around the corner" according to them. Now they are cancelling those plans. For them "AGI" was cancelled. OpenAI claims to be closer and closer to "AGI" as more top scientists left or are getting poached by other labs that are behind. So why would you leave if the promise of achieving "AGI" was going to produce "$100B dollars…

I’m not commenting on the whole just the rhetorical question of why would people leave. They are leaving for more money, more seniority or because they don’t like their boss. 0 about AGI

Yeah I agree, this idea that people won't change jobs if they are on the verge of a breakthrough reads like a silicon valley fantasy where you can underpay people by selling them on vision or something. "Make ME rich, but we'll give you a footnote on the Wikipedia page"

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#25

Post by tharkun__ »

levanten wrote: post #15
A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #4

> "This is purely an observation: You only jump ship in the middle of a conquest if either all ships are arriving at the same time (unlikely) or neither is arriving at all. This means that no AI lab is close to AGI." The central claim here is illogical. The way I see it, if you believe that AGI is imminent, and if your personal efforts are not entirely crucial to bringing AGI about (just about all engineers are in th…

Being part of the team that achieved AGI first would be to write your name in history forever. That could mean more to people than money. Also 10m would be a drop in the bucket compared to being a shareholder of a company that has achieved AGI; you could also imagine the influence and fame that comes with it.

*some people

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#26

Post by cm277 »

rvz wrote: post #13
matusp wrote: post #8

Observe what the AI companies are doing, not what they are saying. If they would expect to achieve AGI soon, their behaviour would be completely different. Why bother developing chatbots or doing sales, when you will be operating AGI in a few short years? Surely, all resources should go towards that goal, as it is supposed to usher the humanity into a new prosperous age (somehow).

Exactly. For example, Microsoft was building data centers all over the world since "AGI" was "around the corner" according to them. Now they are cancelling those plans. For them "AGI" was cancelled. OpenAI claims to be closer and closer to "AGI" as more top scientists left or are getting poached by other labs that are behind. So why would you leave if the promise of achieving "AGI" was going to produce "$100B dollars…

Yes, this. Microsoft has other businesses that can make a lot of money (regular Azure) and tons of cash flow. The fact that they are pulling back from the market leader (OpenAI) whom they mostly owned should be all the negative signal people need: AGI is not close and there is no real moat even for OpenAI.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#27

Post by Touche »

deergomoo wrote: post #22
impossiblefork wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I might, depending on the definition. Some kind of verbal-only-AGI that can solve almost all mathematical problems that humans come up with that can be solved in half a page. I think that's achievable somewhere in the near term, 2-7 years.

Is that “general” though? I’ve always taken AGI to mean general to any problem.

Yes, general means you can present it a new problem that there is no data on, and it can become a expert o that problem.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#28

Post by pu_pe »

matusp wrote: post #8

Observe what the AI companies are doing, not what they are saying. If they would expect to achieve AGI soon, their behaviour would be completely different. Why bother developing chatbots or doing sales, when you will be operating AGI in a few short years? Surely, all resources should go towards that goal, as it is supposed to usher the humanity into a new prosperous age (somehow).

I don't think it's as simple as that. Chatbots can be used to harvest data, and sales are still important before and after you achieve AGI.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#29

Post by rvz »

zaphirplane wrote: post #18
rvz wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. For example, Microsoft was building data centers all over the world since "AGI" was "around the corner" according to them. Now they are cancelling those plans. For them "AGI" was cancelled. OpenAI claims to be closer and closer to "AGI" as more top scientists left or are getting poached by other labs that are behind. So why would you leave if the promise of achieving "AGI" was going to produce "$100B dollars…

I’m not commenting on the whole just the rhetorical question of why would people leave. They are leaving for more money, more seniority or because they don’t like their boss. 0 about AGI

> They are leaving for more money, more seniority or because they don’t like their boss. 0 about AGI

Of course, but that's part of my whole point.

Such statements and targets about how close we are to "AGI" has only become nothing but false promises and using AGI as the prime excuse to continue raising more money.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#30

Post by serf »

BriggyDwiggs42 wrote: post #6
bestouff wrote: post #3

Are there some people here in HN believing in AGI "soonish" ?

I could see 2040 or so being very likely. Not off transformers though.

via what paradigm then? What out there gives high enough confidence to set a date like that?
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