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The only time HN is this interested in Bitcoin is when there's a bubble (2017)

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Re: The only time HN is this interested in Bitcoin is when there's a bubble (2017)

#21

Post by Lerc »

scotty79 wrote: post #6

Is there update for 2025? This is a general rule of all media. After 4 cycles you can pretty much feel at which stage the BTC bubble is just by the amount of coverage there is. The current one feels sluggish.

A bubble or two ago I hypothesised that the period is defined by how long the media feels is necessary to justify the narrative. It has to be just long enough that people op don't notice that they are saying the opposite of a previous story.

They run all the stories about how BTC lost 80% of its value without acknowledging that the top measurement was at the peak of spikiest part of the bubble where only half a dozen trades occured.

Then, after stories of how much value has been lost cease to be interesting enough to warrant further stories and noone is clinking on the stories that they do write. That's when it's time to start running the "It looked like bitcoin was dead, but it's coming back again, and this time it's stronger than ever!". Which promotes the next bubble that they can report on when it crashes.

There may be underlying value there, but the oscillations are driven by short term sentiment. I can't help but feel that their are news organisations that are happy to provide self forefilling prophecies as long as it provides more easy to write news.

Re: The only time HN is this interested in Bitcoin is when there's a bubble (2017)

#22

Post by rvz »

raincole wrote: post #7

Yeah, Bitcoin was in a big bubble in 2017. If you were dumb enough to buy BTC then, today your portfolio would be a devastating +400%.

Remember what HN kept parroting in 2017? "bItCoIn is sCaM".

So much of a scam that buying that coveted Tesla Model S in 2017 would sure have held its value much better than Bitcoin did and by now in 2025, Bitcoin should be worthless. Right?

Not even close.

If Bitcoin was a scam, was it supposed to "crash" from $10k to $100k+ and that Tesla Model S "skyrocketed" from $100k+ to around $40k from its retail price.

Sounds like buying a Tesla Model S in 2017 was a scam.

Re: The only time HN is this interested in Bitcoin is when there's a bubble (2017)

#23

Post by willis936 »

diggan wrote: post #20
wouldbecouldbe wrote: post #2

BTC is still in a bubble and there is not much news about it :)

For how long does a "bubble" need to be in "the bubble" for it to not be considered a "bubble" anymore? I'm guessing there is a time limit involved here somewhere?

Economic downturn that motivates holders to liquidate. The house of cards would collapse very quickly if one whale cashed out. Everyone holding is facing a bad version of the prisoner's dilemma.

Re: The only time HN is this interested in Bitcoin is when there's a bubble (2017)

#24

Post by AlecSchueler »

rvz wrote: post #22
raincole wrote: post #7

Yeah, Bitcoin was in a big bubble in 2017. If you were dumb enough to buy BTC then, today your portfolio would be a devastating +400%.

Remember what HN kept parroting in 2017? "bItCoIn is sCaM". So much of a scam that buying that coveted Tesla Model S in 2017 would sure have held its value much better than Bitcoin did and by now in 2025, Bitcoin should be worthless. Right? Not even close. If Bitcoin was a scam, was it supposed to "crash" from $10k to $100k+ and that Tesla Model S "skyrocketed" from $100k+ to around $40k from its retail price. Sounds…

> Remember what HN kept parroting in 2017? "bItCoIn is sCaM".

Honestly, no.

Re: The only time HN is this interested in Bitcoin is when there's a bubble (2017)

#26

Post by celticninja »

diggan wrote: post #19
celticninja wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I remember the white paper being posted in 2009, took another 2 years before I got into bitcoin. The reason I know bitcoin has hit the mainstream and isn't going anywhere is in sort due to HN. This bubble has spurred zero posts as far as I can tell, or zero that gained any traction. In part this is because there is nothing new to discuss. But in the past there was nothing new either, but it gained traction becau…

> This bubble has spurred zero posts as far as I can tell, or zero that gained any traction. ... Did you look? Quick search turns up a bunch of stories that were on the frontpage: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=pastYear&page=0&prefix=fal... > But in the past there was nothing new either, but it gained traction because of the numbers of comments. That's the opposite of how things are ranked on HN. Submissions with…

2 posts on that page are less than 6 months old and they are both posts of the same thing.

Re: The only time HN is this interested in Bitcoin is when there's a bubble (2017)

#27

Post by diggan »

celticninja wrote: post #26
diggan wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This bubble has spurred zero posts as far as I can tell, or zero that gained any traction. ... Did you look? Quick search turns up a bunch of stories that were on the frontpage: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=pastYear&page=0&prefix=fal... > But in the past there was nothing new either, but it gained traction because of the numbers of comments. That's the opposite of how things are ranked on HN. Submissions with…

2 posts on that page are less than 6 months old and they are both posts of the same thing.

All of them are less than 12 months old, and most of the results on the first search page been at one point on the frontpage.

Another search, limiting it to >50 points (so passed through the frontpage at one point) and within the last 12 months, showing ~26 results: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=pastYear&page=0&prefix=tru...

Re: The only time HN is this interested in Bitcoin is when there's a bubble (2017)

#28

Post by AlexandrB »

rvz wrote: post #22
raincole wrote: post #7

Yeah, Bitcoin was in a big bubble in 2017. If you were dumb enough to buy BTC then, today your portfolio would be a devastating +400%.

Remember what HN kept parroting in 2017? "bItCoIn is sCaM". So much of a scam that buying that coveted Tesla Model S in 2017 would sure have held its value much better than Bitcoin did and by now in 2025, Bitcoin should be worthless. Right? Not even close. If Bitcoin was a scam, was it supposed to "crash" from $10k to $100k+ and that Tesla Model S "skyrocketed" from $100k+ to around $40k from its retail price. Sounds…

I'm confused. Who would think buying a car (any car) is an investment that would increase in value?

And just because the value of Bitcoin has gone up, doesn't mean it's not a scam. "Market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

Bitcoin continues to fail at its stated goal of being a currency - it's more like digital gold that, unlike actual gold, would be worthless in a real global crisis. A lot of bitcoin-adjacent stuff has also collapsed since 2017 (NFTs, FTX). The idea of putting everything "on the blockchain" also seems to have died.

Re: The only time HN is this interested in Bitcoin is when there's a bubble (2017)

#29

Post by johnisgood »

AlecSchueler wrote: post #24
rvz wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remember what HN kept parroting in 2017? "bItCoIn is sCaM". So much of a scam that buying that coveted Tesla Model S in 2017 would sure have held its value much better than Bitcoin did and by now in 2025, Bitcoin should be worthless. Right? Not even close. If Bitcoin was a scam, was it supposed to "crash" from $10k to $100k+ and that Tesla Model S "skyrocketed" from $100k+ to around $40k from its retail price. Sounds…

> Remember what HN kept parroting in 2017? "bItCoIn is sCaM". Honestly, no.

I was here, and they still keep saying the same thing. There was a recent submission about Bitcoin. People were still saying how it is a scam and whatnot.

Scam or not, many people have gotten rich off of it. I bet the people who kept saying it is a scam wish'd they bought when it was low, they would have been rich today, instead, they double down (because they completely missed their chance due to their opinion), which is to be expected.

Too bad, life goes on, and you most likely will never get ~10 BTCs for the price of a bread anymore.

Re: The only time HN is this interested in Bitcoin is when there's a bubble (2017)

#30

Post by dmichulke »

diggan wrote: post #20
wouldbecouldbe wrote: post #2

BTC is still in a bubble and there is not much news about it :)

For how long does a "bubble" need to be in "the bubble" for it to not be considered a "bubble" anymore? I'm guessing there is a time limit involved here somewhere?

What you're saying is that the claim "it's a bubble" is not falsifiable (people move price and time targets) and therefore a belief and not scientifically grounded, just like a religion.

So any discussion with BTC bubble people is futile unless they are willing to put their money where their mouth is.

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