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What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

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Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#21

Post by johnea »

theultdev wrote: post #20
johnea wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just paid about $12K to install mini-split heat pumps on a main house and ADU. Two separate systems. That's about 1/2 of the "minimum" cited above, and it's for 2 buildings. This is so similar to the EV panic. I'm not sure if the article is LLM slop, I only scanned it. But I agree with the main point that it's not the tech holding this back, it's the US population. I also bought a 2 year old used Nissan Leaf (w/ 15…

> And both of them will pay for themselves over a few years how much did you save on your bills a month?

With the car, my back of the napkin calculation, says it will pay for itself in about 5 years. At ~10K miles/year, and San Diego gas prices of ~$5/gal..

It's hard to judge with the mini-split, since the house didn't have A/C at all before, and the ADU is new, so there is no history to compare.

In the next few years though, I intend to install solar and batteries. This takes a little longer to pay off, but it's getting shorter all the time. Utilitys, especially SDG&E here in San Diego, have been raising rates at ~12%/year for quite a while.

I hope to be totally energy self sufficient in another 1-3 years (including operating the car).

I would expect this prospect to be very appealing to conservative rural residents, and yet for some reason there is a huge support for continuing to be dependent on oil companies.

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#22

Post by theultdev »

testing22321 wrote: post #3

We just got a heat pump in Canada and tore out the natural gas furnace. Massive energy saving - around $3k per year.

How much did the entire heat pump installation cost?

I assume in Canada you needed a geo-thermal loop.

That runs about $30k avg, you'll break even in 10 years.

Investing that money would prove financially better.

Even a 2% low-risk investment would net $6,421 in 10 years.

Also it seems they have a lifespan of 15-20 years so you have to account for depreciation of the system.

It doesn't make much sense to switch, new installations or replacing failing systems are the only scenarios I see where it does.

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#23

Post by theultdev »

johnea wrote: post #21
theultdev wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And both of them will pay for themselves over a few years how much did you save on your bills a month?

With the car, my back of the napkin calculation, says it will pay for itself in about 5 years. At ~10K miles/year, and San Diego gas prices of ~$5/gal.. It's hard to judge with the mini-split, since the house didn't have A/C at all before, and the ADU is new, so there is no history to compare. In the next few years though, I intend to install solar and batteries. This takes a little longer to pay off, but it's gettin…

I see. For others with existing systems, you'd have to save $333/mo to break even over 3 years assuming a $12k install.

My combined gas and electric bills don't even reach $200/mo during peak months.

I'd expect that is why most people don't switch.

New installs, sure I think it makes sense.

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#24

Post by ilamont »

johnea wrote: post #21
theultdev wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And both of them will pay for themselves over a few years how much did you save on your bills a month?

With the car, my back of the napkin calculation, says it will pay for itself in about 5 years. At ~10K miles/year, and San Diego gas prices of ~$5/gal.. It's hard to judge with the mini-split, since the house didn't have A/C at all before, and the ADU is new, so there is no history to compare. In the next few years though, I intend to install solar and batteries. This takes a little longer to pay off, but it's gettin…

> I would expect this prospect to be very appealing to conservative rural residents

I am in a conservative rural district right now. Here's the math: 20% are at or below the federal poverty line, and of the remainder there are a huge number of people on fixed incomes or sitting on major credit card or vehicle debts (people own trucks or farm equipment, often related to work). They have very little wiggle room on any major investments, not just clean energy.

Yet people understand the value of solar. There are households and even some farms with solar arrays here. They also know utilities are jacking up prices despite huge wind farms and hydro nearby (this is in part due to local crypto mining ventures that sprouted up 10 years ago, which will likely be joined by AI farms in the coming years.)

People aren't staying away solar because there is "huge support" for fossil fuels. They are staying away from solar (and heat pumps) because they simply cannot afford the cost. They don't have the cash on hand, they will never qualify for loans, and in many cases they are dealing with existing debt or emergency costs.

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#25

Post by johnea »

theultdev wrote: post #23
johnea wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With the car, my back of the napkin calculation, says it will pay for itself in about 5 years. At ~10K miles/year, and San Diego gas prices of ~$5/gal.. It's hard to judge with the mini-split, since the house didn't have A/C at all before, and the ADU is new, so there is no history to compare. In the next few years though, I intend to install solar and batteries. This takes a little longer to pay off, but it's gettin…

I see. For others with existing systems, you'd have to save $333/mo to break even over 3 years assuming a $12k install. My combined gas and electric bills don't even reach $200/mo during peak months. I'd expect that is why most people don't switch. New installs, sure I think it makes sense.

In the long run, it all pays for itself. Every homeowner should pursue it. The sooner the better.

Especially once complete independence from an electric utility is achieved.

I totally agree with you that the time to install this stuff is at time of construction. Unfortunately real estate developers don't really care about how much it costs to _operate_ a building, they only care about building it as cheaply as possible, and selling for as high a price as possible.

The cost to increase insulation, add solar and batteries, all electric appliances, would all pay for itself over a decade or so.

Most homes in the US are occupied for many decades (not all by the same owner) so the savings are substantial over the lifetime of the building.

Of course, the consumer's savings are the electric utilities losses, and we know who has the pull in policy creation...

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#27

Post by theultdev »

johnea wrote: post #25
theultdev wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see. For others with existing systems, you'd have to save $333/mo to break even over 3 years assuming a $12k install. My combined gas and electric bills don't even reach $200/mo during peak months. I'd expect that is why most people don't switch. New installs, sure I think it makes sense.

In the long run, it all pays for itself. Every homeowner should pursue it. The sooner the better. Especially once complete independence from an electric utility is achieved. I totally agree with you that the time to install this stuff is at time of construction. Unfortunately real estate developers don't really care about how much it costs to _operate_ a building, they only care about building it as cheaply as possib…

You'd at best break even over the decade, that's not really a sound financial strategy.

And many of these things, like heat pumps last twice that at best, so you have to account for depreciation.

It's more economically sound to invest the money or pay off your auto loan / credit card bills.

It makes no sense to switch when you have a working system, only to replace a failing one or during construction.

See my comment here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44425004 for a breakdown of one scenario.

Again, I do think this tech is great, but I see no upside in switching when you have a working system.

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#29

Post by rented_mule »

We're not replacing our central, forced-air propane furnace because of unreliable electricity. We have stretches where our electricity is out for 1-10 days at a time. That tends to correlate with times when our daily high temperatures are below freezing. The outages are typically caused by trees falling after several feet of snow fall on them before a windstorm finishes them off. We're in rural mountains in Northern California.

We have whole-house backup batteries, which we can charge with a generator for longer outages (we also have solar in summer, but the sun doesn't get above the trees in the winter). The batteries/generator would have to be much bigger to replace that furnace with a heat pump. They will power the propane furnace (mainly the forced-air part). About 1/3 of our heating is firewood, but during deep cold spells, it's hard to keep it above ~55°F in rooms other than the one with the fireplace without help from the furnace.

We do plan to install a mini-split system before too long, and use that when we do have electricity, relegating the central propane furnace to power outages. We already use an evaporative cooler for cooling, which uses far less electricity than AC. We'll only use the AC function of the mini-splits when we have a lot of smoke from wildfires in the area (evaporative coolers blow in lots of outside air).

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#30

Post by dtgm93 »

More practical to insulate and just paint your siding and roof white than replace your already existing/working AC. Immediate cooling benefits and no loan hanging over you for X years. Most people have not budgeted or saved for any infrastructure improvements though, so either is a hard sell.
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