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Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

electrek.co

21–30 of 198 posts

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#21

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

Just curious, what are the expiration dates on your puts? I'm just as pessimistic, but wondering what your timeline is.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#22
post #11

I own two Teslas, and drive between Portland and Seattle about once every 10 days, using FSD nearly the entire way. FSD has gotten amazingly better over the last year, it can and has taken me from driveway to driveway between two cities... when the weather is nice. As soon as there is any weather however, things start to fall apart. It's very clear to me that vision alone wont be the solution to FSD, and is the main…

I also use FSD HW4 daily, and it really just works well in regular conditions. It's unbelievable how we have a level of autonomy here and now, and not too many people know about it. Out of about 6k miles in the last 7 months, I probably drove 80 or so. I did not have many issues in the rain, but I do have issues in the snow. It's still somewhat unaware of how to drive well in snow. I usually disengage when it's snowy or very icy.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#24

Tesla had more chance to succeed than Waymo. It's impossible for Waymo to match Tesla in real world training and testing data. Somehow Waymo is winning.

Tesla could have more camera data in sum (that's not even clear - transmitting and storing data from all the cars on the road is no easy task - L4 companies typically pysically remove drives and use appliances to suck data off the hard drives), but Waymo has more camera data per car (29 cameras) and higher fidelity data overall (including lidar, radar, and microphone data). Tesla can't magically enhance data it didn't collect.

This is a crippling disadvantage. Consider what it takes to evaluate a single software release for a robotaxi.

If you have a simulator, you can take long tail distribution events and just resimulate your software to see if there are regressions against those events. (Waymo, Zoox)

If you don't, or your simulator has too much error, you have to deploy your software in cars in "ghost mode" and hope that sufficient miles see rare and scary situations recur. You then need to find those specific situations and check if your software did a good job (vs just getting lucky). But what if you need to A/B test a change? What if you need to A/B test 100 changes made by different engineers? How do you ensure you're testing the right thing? (Tesla)

And if you have a simulator that _sucks_ because it doesn't have physics-grounded understanding of distances (i.e. it's based on distance estimates from camera), then you can easily trick yourself into thinking your software is doing the right thing, right up until you start killing people.

Another way to look at it is: most driving data is actually very low in signal. You want all the hard driving miles, and in high resolution, so that you can basically generate the world's best unit testing suite for the software driver. You can just throw the rest of the driving data away -- and you must, because nobody has that much storage and unit economics still matter.

This is to say nothing of the fact that differences between hardware matter too. Tesla has a bunch of car models out there, and software working well one one model may not actually work well on another.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#25

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

I think if Robotaxis take off, then his politics won't matter at all. People aren't going to care what brand of car comes to pick them up as long as they feel safe. I've been bearish on Tesla for years and they always prove me wrong. Robotaxis/Waymos are going to be national thing within the decade. It's just a bet on who survives, the biggest loser will be gig workers, that part I feel confident about.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#26

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

I also got the free month of FSD about four months ago and tried it out on my Model 3, and was astonished at how bad it was in the greater Seattle area: I had to manually intervene on about 4 out of every 5 drives. I do not understand how I continue to see so many comments online raving about how great FSD is; I have to conclude these are coming from either desperate stock-boosters or people who drive exclusively on…

I don't have FSD, just basic autopilot, but I'm unhappy enough with the lane following/braking/accelerating behavior that I only use it in very limited cases.

Unless FSD improves on these -- which I don't think it does, I think it just adds features -- I can't imagine trusting it.

Yes, I'm a control freak, but I wouldn't be happy with a human driver doing the things AP does, so why would I be happy with the car doing it?

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#27
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So - the cooked-ness of Tesla may depend on what you think Musk's goal was with Tesla. If you believe he was out to change the world - maybe he'll let Tesla die. It's unlikely they are going to accomplish much else at this point, better, smarter more experienced competitors are sweeping the board. If you believe he's out to make as much money as he can, he'll probably course correct at some point. Lidar it is clear w…

I don't understand how you could look at Elon's actions and think he has any interest in making as much money as he can. He's already made his money. Now he's gone full Howard Hughes. "I would like to die on Mars" is a direct quote.

Easily accomplished with a 1 way rocket (it doesn't even need a lander).

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#28
post #11

I own two Teslas, and drive between Portland and Seattle about once every 10 days, using FSD nearly the entire way. FSD has gotten amazingly better over the last year, it can and has taken me from driveway to driveway between two cities... when the weather is nice. As soon as there is any weather however, things start to fall apart. It's very clear to me that vision alone wont be the solution to FSD, and is the main…

For someone living in Seattle, a product that requires good weather is close to useless...

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#29

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

There will be incidents and Tesla will just put the blame on drivers, and if you're buying one it most certainly has a clause that you cannot blame Tesla for the problems that the system will cause.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#30
post #5

We are potentially about to see a worse incident than Uber in Phoenix or Cruise in SF. 444 miles per Critical Disengagement is terrible. In 2023, Waymo reported 17,000 miles between Critical Disengagements and have made significant (as seen by a functioning robotaxi service) leaps since.

Cruise in SF was a bit of a freak accident. There were systematic issues that exacerbated the issue, but it wasn't an issue of bad disengagement numbers. In fact, Cruise 2023 actually highlights how misleading disengagement numbers can be, as they reported 0 critical disengagements the entire year over 583k miles. Waymo is extremely consistent about their numbers and they typically sandbag themselves relative to their competitors. Tesla of course doesn't officially report CA numbers, so people rely on crowdsourced data that the company and fans maintain are orders of magnitude lower than reality.

It's entirely possible that the opaqueness and small scale of the Tesla rollout could lead to situations where long tail events like the Cruise collision simply don't occur, or aren't allowed to reach public media.

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