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Now might be the best time to learn software development

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Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#21

Post by ako »

glimshe wrote: post #16
psunavy03 wrote: post #14

"Great news, boss! We invented this new tool that allows nontechnical people to write code in English! Now anyone can deploy applications, and we don't have to hire all those expensive developers!" "Wow, show it to me!" "OK here it is. We call it COBOL."

You're joking but it's true. I'm sure you know that. SQL had similar claims... Declarative, say what you need and the computer will do for you. Also written in English.

And compared to what we had before SQL, it is much easier to use, and a lot more people are able to use it.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#22

Post by bachmeier »

20after4 wrote: post #18
bitpush wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bravo. This is the exact sentiment I have, but you expressed in a way that I could never have. Most people miss the fact that technical improvements increases the pie in a way that was not possible before. When digital cameras became popular, everybody become a photographer. That only made the world better, and we got soo many more good photographers. Same with YouTube & creativity. And same with coding & LLMs. World…

And now the business of wedding / portrait photographer has become hyper-competitive. Now everyone's cousin is an amateur photographer and every phone has an almost acceptable camera built in. It is much more difficult to have a profitable photography business compared to 20 years ago.

That's good to hear. Back when I got married there were some real jerks in the wedding photography business, and they weren't worried about running out of customers. Here's an actual conversation I had with one of them:

Me: "I'm getting married on [date] and I'm looking for a photographer."

Them, in the voice of Nick Burns: "We're already filling up for next year. Good luck finding a photographer this year."

Me: "I just got engaged. You never have anything open up?"

Them: "No" and hang up the phone.

The faster guys like that struggle to make a living, the better.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#23

Post by ameliaquining »

ako wrote: post #21
glimshe wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're joking but it's true. I'm sure you know that. SQL had similar claims... Declarative, say what you need and the computer will do for you. Also written in English.

And compared to what we had before SQL, it is much easier to use, and a lot more people are able to use it.

Is that really because of the English-esque syntax, rather than because it was a step forward in semantic expressivity? If SQL looked like, say, C#'s LINQ method syntax, would it really be harder to use?

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#24

Post by nathanfig »

abalashov wrote: post #20

I'm not sure if I agree with every aspect of the framing here; specifically, I don't think the efficiency gains are anywhere on par with a combine harvester. However, I do agree that the premium shifts from mere "coding" ability -- we already had a big look into this with the offshoring wave two decades ago -- to domain expertise, comprehension of the business logic, ability to translate fluidly between different kin…

Yeah I think the combine-harvester analogy is tempting because it's so easy to visualize how wheat can scale over a big square field and project that visual onto lines of code generated on a big square screen... forgetting that lines-of-code-generated is not inherently useful.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#25

Post by noworriesnate »

ako wrote: post #21
glimshe wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're joking but it's true. I'm sure you know that. SQL had similar claims... Declarative, say what you need and the computer will do for you. Also written in English.

And compared to what we had before SQL, it is much easier to use, and a lot more people are able to use it.

But software developers often struggle to use sql and prefer using ORMs or analytical APIs like polars; the people who excel at sql are typically not programmers, they’re data engineers, DBAs, analysts, etc.

Maybe a similar bifurcation will arise where there are vibe coders who use LLMs to write everything, and there are real engineers who avoid LLMs.

Maybe we’re seeing the beginning of that with the whole bifurcation of programmers into two camps: heavy AI users and AI skeptics.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#27

Post by nathanfig »

noworriesnate wrote: post #25
ako wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And compared to what we had before SQL, it is much easier to use, and a lot more people are able to use it.

But software developers often struggle to use sql and prefer using ORMs or analytical APIs like polars; the people who excel at sql are typically not programmers, they’re data engineers, DBAs, analysts, etc. Maybe a similar bifurcation will arise where there are vibe coders who use LLMs to write everything, and there are real engineers who avoid LLMs. Maybe we’re seeing the beginning of that with the whole bifurcatio…

Claude made this point while reviewing my blog for me: the mechanization of farms created a whole lot more specialization of roles. The person editing CAD diagrams of next year's combine harvester may not be a farmer strictly speaking, but farming is still where their livelihood comes from.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#28

Post by 9rx »

ameliaquining wrote: post #23
ako wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And compared to what we had before SQL, it is much easier to use, and a lot more people are able to use it.

Is that really because of the English-esque syntax, rather than because it was a step forward in semantic expressivity? If SQL looked like, say, C#'s LINQ method syntax, would it really be harder to use?

> Is that really because of the English-esque syntax

Well, what we had before SQL[1] was QUEL, which is effectively the same as Alpha[2], except in "English". Given the previous assertion about what came before SQL, clearly not. I expect SQL garnered favour because it is tablational instead of relational, which is the quality that makes it easier to understand for those not heavy in the math.

[1] Originally known as SEQUEL, a fun word play on it claiming to be the QUEL successor.

[2] The godfather language created by Codd himself.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#29

Post by layer8 »

nathanfig wrote: post #2

Hi all - I write a lot for myself but typically don't share, hence the stream-of-consciousness style. But I thought this might be worth blogifying just for the sake of adding some counter-narrative to the doomerism I see a lot regarding the value of software developers. Feel free to tear it apart :)

The humor was refreshing. :)

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#30

Post by NewsaHackO »

bachmeier wrote: post #22
20after4 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And now the business of wedding / portrait photographer has become hyper-competitive. Now everyone's cousin is an amateur photographer and every phone has an almost acceptable camera built in. It is much more difficult to have a profitable photography business compared to 20 years ago.

That's good to hear. Back when I got married there were some real jerks in the wedding photography business, and they weren't worried about running out of customers. Here's an actual conversation I had with one of them: Me: "I'm getting married on [date] and I'm looking for a photographer." Them, in the voice of Nick Burns: "We're already filling up for next year. Good luck finding a photographer this year." Me: "I j…

Definitely. What matters more is that the ability to take photos is available to more people, which is a net positive.
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