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Your Job used to impress people. That era just ended

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Re: Your Job used to impress people. That era just ended

#21

Post by kypro »

I have to admit while I think this knowledge work automation push is all going to be a complete disaster for my own life, I do love that we're finally seeing the educated, "my job is more impressive than yours" class get knocked down a peg or two.

I come from a working class background and for years (decades I guess) my family (especially my dad) has been competing with mass low-skilled immigration, outsourcing, and automation. This has taken a huge toll on his mental health as from time to time he's struggled to keep afloat.

But did he get any sympathy from the educated knowledge class? Of course not...

Reskill! They say. We shouldn't protect inefficient jobs which can be done by machine / foreign sweatshop workers abroad.

Don't be a racist! They say. If you can't compete with the salary demands of hundreds of thousands of low-skilled migrants that's your problem!

Instead of embracing this we could of course have looked for ways to protect jobs or looked for ways to reeducated and compensate those impacted. But we didn't because that would have been bad for GDP. So we were horrid to those who were struggling and desperate for help.

Now we deserve the same. We work inefficient jobs which can be done faster and cheaper by computers running auto-correct. Yes, knowledge workers will lose their jobs, but remember the productivity boosts are going to be great! And that's all that matters right? Businesses won't need to hire armies of devs to build an app anymore like you don't need to pay someone in the US a decent salary to make your clothes or your car.

My advice – shut up, reskill and embrace it. Don't think you're special and deserve UBI. If you can't compete with auto-correcting machines thats your problem. Remember – unless you want higher prices we must embrace outsourcing, mass immigration, automation and AI. When you're struggling to feed your kids, remember this is good.

Genuinely though, hope you guys are all doing okay, both today and tomorrow. And while not preferable, in this case the karma is at least deserved.

Re: Your Job used to impress people. That era just ended

#22

Post by jfinnery »

pavel_lishin wrote: post #14
jfinnery wrote: post #13

Pretty sure enough (doesn't need to be a high proportion of them, really) office workers can re-train as e.g. locksmiths or plumbers fast enough if the money is really there that a substantial bump from this effect will be short-lived. Hell, I'd kinda rather do something like that, if the money were as good, and I'm already reasonably handy. Pretty sure I'm far from alone, and again, it only needs to be a few percent…

I think a lot of us software engineers dream about having a job where we work with our hands, and plumbing and woodworking seem to be especially common dreams. But if you talk to a plumber, you'll quickly learn that while it's a respectable job that can earn you a good wage, it's also hard on the body, and often wildly unpleasant. And that's before you get to the fact that you're often your own boss, which means deal…

From observing the career trajectories of the tradespeople I've known who likely match or out-earn me, yes, the ideal (and, from what I can tell, not terribly unachievable[1]) path is to be running a crew (or two... or three...) with your name on the truck(s) no later than age 35.

That does mean the job becomes management, sales, and customer relations, but it's management, sales, and customer relations for a trade you know well, which (this is my speculation here) makes it a bit easier to swallow than doing the same thing at office-bound bigco for some product you were only introduced to last week.

[1] I suspect, from also observing the crews themselves, that it's achievable because it's relatively easy for someone with a decent head on their shoulders, who speaks good English, and with the ability to show up almost all the time and to not come off as a flaky meth addict or lazy scam artist when talking to customers, to move up very fast in the trades...

[EDIT] In fact, in the linked story, it appears the locksmith's early-retirement-from-locksmithing plan might be to become a landlord. Also a fairly solid plan, and another that I've seen tradespeople follow—they have an advantage because they can achieve better results with less money on property maintenance, between their own skills, their connections, and having insight into what a good price and good work look like in other trades.

Re: Your Job used to impress people. That era just ended

#23

Post by almosthere »

bluefirebrand wrote: post #9

I read a bit of this and sort of just glazed over The fact is that people have never been that impressed by job titles, at least not in my lifetime No one's ever been like "oh wow you're a software engineer? That's so incredible" Mostly if they're impressed, it's because it pays well and they assume I'm pretty rich I'm not. I do really well compared to my peers, yes, but ultimately I'm still living the same kind of m…

The article is about how the entire paradigm may flip- software engineer is a low class person, locksmiths and fabricators are the new software engineers.

Re: Your Job used to impress people. That era just ended

#24

Post by pu_pe »

I guess what the article is trying to say is that people with job titles like lawyer or marketing manager were formerly presumed to be wealthy or smart, and now less so. If that' the case, it's probably a good thing that they are losing their status. However, I think market saturation is a more likely cause than AI at this point.

Re: Your Job used to impress people. That era just ended

#25

Post by almosthere »

jfinnery wrote: post #13

Pretty sure enough (doesn't need to be a high proportion of them, really) office workers can re-train as e.g. locksmiths or plumbers fast enough if the money is really there that a substantial bump from this effect will be short-lived. Hell, I'd kinda rather do something like that, if the money were as good, and I'm already reasonably handy. Pretty sure I'm far from alone, and again, it only needs to be a few percent…

The funny thing about the story is that the tradesmen that show up with an investment property isn't doing that well either. Even though in the story the locksmith asks for $750 - he's only taking home $25-35/hour. The check/card is for the company he works for. And that money will be paying his salary for a few days until the next uber expensive lockout.

In no reality is someone going lock-out to lock-out making $750 for themselves. That business, like software, is also captured. Captured by capital in advertising no individual can match.

It's just like a BTC miner. Very few people on HN will go out and buy a BTC miner box hoping to get 1 BTC in a few days - the competition is maximized to a point where each earned BTC just barely paid for all the upgrades. The fact is, that most of the BTC is mined in China and so it's just a giant siphon of money.

Re: Your Job used to impress people. That era just ended

#26

Post by bluefirebrand »

almosthere wrote: post #23
bluefirebrand wrote: post #9

I read a bit of this and sort of just glazed over The fact is that people have never been that impressed by job titles, at least not in my lifetime No one's ever been like "oh wow you're a software engineer? That's so incredible" Mostly if they're impressed, it's because it pays well and they assume I'm pretty rich I'm not. I do really well compared to my peers, yes, but ultimately I'm still living the same kind of m…

The article is about how the entire paradigm may flip- software engineer is a low class person, locksmiths and fabricators are the new software engineers.

My point is there's a difference between "economic class" and "social class"

Software Engineers are still, pretty generally, viewed as a low social class despite being a pretty solid economic class

The idea that the paradigm may flip is only really about economic class. A locksmith may make more money than software engineers soon, but they will still be low social class

That likely won't change

Re: Your Job used to impress people. That era just ended

#27

Post by xenocratus »

I've only gotten a few paragraphs in, but this seems like a pipe dream of someone working in trades. Who, exactly, starts calling up locksmiths more when their job is gone and they don't have much money to spare? A lot of people being out of a job results in deflation for trades, not inflation. There's also more competition for the jobs that are still available, so you effectively have two sources of deflationary pressure working together. And somehow that results in a locksmith being able to charge 3x. Sure.

Re: Your Job used to impress people. That era just ended

#28

Post by volkk »

Not sure if I agree that the flippening is happening solely due to AI taking jobs. I think it's a factor of many complex things happening all at once. Section 174 is a big one for engineering. Another is the fact that VC money has really dried up which affects the economics of tech. Companies spend less money now because there's a lot less free/dumb money and because of a combination of everything, we have layoffs. Some of these layoffs are fueled by future fiscal projections, but I think some are crazy bets on AI. And of course, some departments are truly replaceable by ChatGPT like copywriting, low level marketing, etc.

tl;dr a clusterf*ck of a lot of things.

Re: Your Job used to impress people. That era just ended

#29

Post by bradreaves2 »

> This scene might feel like science fiction

This article is fiction followed by commentary.

If the anecdote were real, it would still be an anecdote: tempting to generalize, but wise to hold loosely.

The article is about how AI will lead to a labor surplus in certain professions, while other professions will retain employment.

The article compares this to the Black Death, where labor supply decreased uniformly. Labor was then able to extract concessions from capital.

Industrialization leads to a different outcome: capital captures more value initially, while devastating workers in the short-term. In the long-term, everyone benefits from higher living standards. Even if the article is correct about AI impacts, it doesn't explain why AI is different from all prior industrialization.

Re: Your Job used to impress people. That era just ended

#30

Post by silverquiet »

kypro wrote: post #21

I have to admit while I think this knowledge work automation push is all going to be a complete disaster for my own life, I do love that we're finally seeing the educated, "my job is more impressive than yours" class get knocked down a peg or two. I come from a working class background and for years (decades I guess) my family (especially my dad) has been competing with mass low-skilled immigration, outsourcing, and…

There's a lot here I feel I can respond to, and I can't help but agree with the sentiment; I've been saying something like that to people here for years and was dismissed. That said, I think most of the push to drive down labor standards is really coming more from the owner/capitalist class than anyone else. Obviously, they've got the most incentive to do so. What will vex me unendingly is that so many in labor vote against their material interests for reasons that are likely cultural.
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