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How to Automate Software Engineering

mechanize.work

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Re: How to Automate Software Engineering

#21

Post by delusional »

hnthrow90348765 wrote: post #18

Alright, this is it, this is the AI peak. >Today we’re announcing Mechanize, a startup focused on developing virtual work environments, benchmarks, and training data that will enable the full automation of the economy. >Compensation >$200K – $475K • 1% – 2% Just imagine for a moment you are a software engineer capable of doing what they say, rivaling the raw intellectual capabilities of every mathematician, economist…

> And there's still someone who says to you: "best I can do is only 1% - 2%"

1% of the global economy seems fine to me. If you actually believe in their vision, money is going to be worthless anyway.

Re: How to Automate Software Engineering

#22

Post by nitwit005 »

Never before have I seen someone list a market size in the tens of trillions, as they do on their main page:

> The market potential here is absurdly large: workers in the US are paid around $18 trillion per year in aggregate. For the entire world, the number is over three times greater, around $60 trillion per year.

https://www.mechanize.work/

Re: How to Automate Software Engineering

#23

Post by AnimalMuppet »

ege_erdil wrote: post #14
dasil003 wrote: post #9

> The roadmap to success will most likely start with training or fine-tuning on data from human professionals performing the task, and proceed with reinforcement learning in custom environments designed to capture more of the complexity of what people do in their jobs. > [...] > We think this is essentially a data problem, not an algorithms problem. This is extremely hand-wavy. How are you going to instrument the var…

how do you think humans cross that chasm?

Pretty sure that however humans crossed it, it wasn't just "a data problem".

Re: How to Automate Software Engineering

#24

Post by handfuloflight »

nitwit005 wrote: post #22

Never before have I seen someone list a market size in the tens of trillions, as they do on their main page: > The market potential here is absurdly large: workers in the US are paid around $18 trillion per year in aggregate. For the entire world, the number is over three times greater, around $60 trillion per year. https://www.mechanize.work/

It's what you do when you fancy yourself in the leagues of Berkshire Hathaway.

Re: How to Automate Software Engineering

#25

Post by Amekedl »

gcanyon wrote: post #15
ctoth wrote: post #6

> Once this occurs, many software engineers could perhaps transition into adjacent positions that rely on similar expertise but are significantly harder to automate, such as software engineering management, product management, or executive leadership within software companies. > In these roles, their responsibilities would shift from writing code and debugging to higher-level oversight, decision-making, and strategic…

> 30 years That's...ridiculous. I'm a product manager, and AI is already chipping away at my job. Two months ago I said to one of my devs, "Our dashboard here looks very bland. What if we had a more visual display of the pipeline statuses across the top of the screen?" He said he thought that was a good idea, and I went to lunch. I came back and started sketching up some ideas for how to lay out the statuses. I had b…

You occasionally do glimpse behind the curtains; depending on what you actually develop it's feasible and quick to prompt it, but attempting to go further than that across multiple components collapses so drastically that I cannot help but feel that all ai stuff is entirely incapable of replicating the real thing at the moment.

Re: How to Automate Software Engineering

#26

Post by martin-t »

jongjong wrote: post #17

I think the conclusion about software engineering having the potential of being both the first and last job to be automated by AI makes sense. It is an extremely unequal profession. The skill difference between a junior with 1 year of experience and a senior with 20 years of both diverse and deep experience (of relentless striving) is massive. They have very different capabilities. The level of software sophisticatio…

Almost 15 years in and I feel like I am still just scratching the surface.

But most of the lessons learned during that time go towards quality, not quantity or speed. The current trend with LLMs (and eventually maybe AI) seems to be doing what humans can do worse but significantly faster and cheaper. Unfortunately, not everyone needs or cares about safety, security or correctness.

I am afraid software will mirror the evolution of physical products from the industrial revolution to present day. It feels like the quality of consumer grade products is constantly decreasing.

Re: How to Automate Software Engineering

#27

Post by Amekedl »

jongjong wrote: post #17

I think the conclusion about software engineering having the potential of being both the first and last job to be automated by AI makes sense. It is an extremely unequal profession. The skill difference between a junior with 1 year of experience and a senior with 20 years of both diverse and deep experience (of relentless striving) is massive. They have very different capabilities. The level of software sophisticatio…

Even then software constantly evolves, and rot is everywhere. And we're far from having the "best possible" software solution in literally every area (if that's even possible to measure), rather just endless room for improvement.

And I don't see it being improved with whatever any llm chugs out, at least not "in-depth".

Re: How to Automate Software Engineering

#28

Post by gerdesj »

hnthrow90348765 wrote: post #18

Alright, this is it, this is the AI peak. >Today we’re announcing Mechanize, a startup focused on developing virtual work environments, benchmarks, and training data that will enable the full automation of the economy. >Compensation >$200K – $475K • 1% – 2% Just imagine for a moment you are a software engineer capable of doing what they say, rivaling the raw intellectual capabilities of every mathematician, economist…

I'm quite handy at what I do. You will not replace me with AI.

Today I set up a remote network with a couple of switches, a router and the rest. From the outside. The customer had already got the router to the internet (good skills) and a LAN. I had a router (pfSense) with six 2.5 GB connections.

I turned it into a 10 VLAN effort with access and trunks and so on, ports at layer 2, without disconnecting myself.

It's quite hard visualising a network, with VLANS and even harder working out how to pivot from the current setup to another. Anyone who has had to change the default VLAN across a site knows what I'm on about.

Just in case anyone here is in any doubt, networks are quite tricky. On a par with programming.

Re: How to Automate Software Engineering

#29

Post by dsjoerg »

gerdesj wrote: post #28
hnthrow90348765 wrote: post #18

Alright, this is it, this is the AI peak. >Today we’re announcing Mechanize, a startup focused on developing virtual work environments, benchmarks, and training data that will enable the full automation of the economy. >Compensation >$200K – $475K • 1% – 2% Just imagine for a moment you are a software engineer capable of doing what they say, rivaling the raw intellectual capabilities of every mathematician, economist…

I'm quite handy at what I do. You will not replace me with AI. Today I set up a remote network with a couple of switches, a router and the rest. From the outside. The customer had already got the router to the internet (good skills) and a LAN. I had a router (pfSense) with six 2.5 GB connections. I turned it into a 10 VLAN effort with access and trunks and so on, ports at layer 2, without disconnecting myself. It's q…

> You will not replace me with AI

Ever? Forever is a long time. Or do you mean with today's AI, assuming no improvements are made?

Re: How to Automate Software Engineering

#30

Post by dsjoerg »

martin-t wrote: post #20
hnthrow90348765 wrote: post #18

Alright, this is it, this is the AI peak. >Today we’re announcing Mechanize, a startup focused on developing virtual work environments, benchmarks, and training data that will enable the full automation of the economy. >Compensation >$200K – $475K • 1% – 2% Just imagine for a moment you are a software engineer capable of doing what they say, rivaling the raw intellectual capabilities of every mathematician, economist…

One of the dumbest things a smart person can do is work for an AI company. At best they don't believe actual AI will be created and they are helping a scam. At worst, they are actively working to make their own job redundant and when they're fired, they will own nothing of what they built. All the money from their work will go to the owners who fired them.

> At worst, they are actively working to make their own job redundant and when they're fired, they will own nothing of what they built. All the money from their work will go to the owners who fired them.

Except that's the case with literally every meaningful information-work job. Your goal is to obsolete yourself. If you do it well then your success becomes your calling card for your next job. Your career is a series of such jobs.

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