The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return • Hacker News Board

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#21

Post by blendergeek » Thu, May 29, 2025, 2:49 PM UTC

This article fails to address that most true believers would not see any point to betting on the yes. If Christ returns this year, the world is done and there is no upside to having bet that he would. Temporal things (like prediction markets) will cease to be interesting when Christ returns. Given that, I highly doubt that the people betting yes actually believe that Christ will return this year.

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#22

Post by vel0city » Thu, May 29, 2025, 2:49 PM UTC

XorNot wrote: post #10

k310 wrote: post #5

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Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#23

Post by paxys » Thu, May 29, 2025, 2:49 PM UTC

k310 wrote: post #5

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Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#24

Post by ty6853 » Thu, May 29, 2025, 2:51 PM UTC

High probability bets on polymarket usually pay worse than the prevailing interest rate, and on top of that you have to deal with counterparty risk.

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#25

Post by delichon » Thu, May 29, 2025, 2:51 PM UTC

   The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

I'm too skeptical to believe that a source is credible if that source claims any resurrection, let alone of a messiah. If a man who looks just like Jesus in the images showed up and performed all of the same miracles, I still wouldn't believe it. I wouldn't believe it if the Pope declared it true, or something claiming to be God announced it into my ear.

At the very least they should name the credible sources in advance, because the bet is on their credulity.

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#26

Post by PaulHoule » Thu, May 29, 2025, 2:51 PM UTC

blendergeek wrote: post #21

This article fails to address that most true believers would not see any point to betting on the yes. If Christ returns this year, the world is done and there is no upside to having bet that he would. Temporal things (like prediction markets) will cease to be interesting when Christ returns. Given that, I highly doubt that the people betting yes actually believe that Christ will return this year.

... and a lot of those folks don't think you should gamble! But really if it happened you wouldn't have any need for money, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sermon_on_the_Mount

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#27

Post by Ekaros » Thu, May 29, 2025, 2:52 PM UTC

vel0city wrote: post #22

XorNot wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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I have always thought that Jesus would not be too great fan of Churches as big buildings in general... Community centres probably, but the churches themselves... And specially not broadcasting it on tv...

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#28

Post by haunter » Thu, May 29, 2025, 2:52 PM UTC

It’s not a betting market though but a prediction market. There is no house and odds.

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#29

Post by fhdjskdndbdjd » Thu, May 29, 2025, 2:53 PM UTC

thinkingtoilet wrote: post #17

jordanb wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#30

Post by DougN7 » Thu, May 29, 2025, 2:53 PM UTC

codr7 wrote: post #8

k310 wrote: post #5

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And I seriously doubt he would approve of Christianity as practiced in general.

Well as practiced by supposed believers. He said there will be many to whom he’ll say “I never knew you”. And I expect they’ll be actually surprised, until they really compare their actions to what he taught.