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How Instagram Could Have Cut a Better Deal

dealbook.nytimes.com

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Re: How Instagram Could Have Cut a Better Deal

#21
post #13
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Instagram will go down as being a shitty deal for both sides. An arranged marriage, as it were.

Arranged marriages are equally happy as marriages "for love". http://libres.uncg.edu/ir/uncg/f/J_Myers_Marriage_2005.pdf

45 arranged marriage individuals in the study. 24 of them over the age of 45. Not sure how this satisfaction study can be considered conclusive in any context.

Re: How Instagram Could Have Cut a Better Deal

#22

The 30/70 split is a nice structure that takes into account the uncertainty of the values involved. Seems like a good deal for Instagram and a sane way for Facebook to do it. Imagine if the stock had shot up to 70, or if it falls to 10. Seems like a great structure to me. It's hard to imagine that the two sides weren't fully aware of the uncertainties involved during the discussion. These are smart folks. This articl…

These types of structures are actually very common in the biotech industry where uncertainty is everywhere.

The deals are typically upfront payments of several hundred million dollars in combination with milestone payments that often comprise of 50-90% of the total deal's value.

It's a smart move on Facebook's part since it shifts a great deal of risk to the Instagram owners. Facebook does well? Instagram does well. Facebook flounders? So does Instagram.

Re: How Instagram Could Have Cut a Better Deal

#25
post #3

This was a well known fact from the get go. TechCrunch on May 17th: http://techcrunch.com/2012/05/17/facebooks-38-share-price-ma... > When Facebook agreed to buy Instagram, it said it would pay with $300 million in cash and 22,999,412 shares of stock. That stock is now worth nearly $874 million, creating a $1.17 billion price tag.

To save everyone the math, 23 million shares is now worth ~$458.8 million.

Re: How Instagram Could Have Cut a Better Deal

#26
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arranged marriages are equally happy as marriages "for love". http://libres.uncg.edu/ir/uncg/f/J_Myers_Marriage_2005.pdf

45 arranged marriage individuals in the study. 24 of them over the age of 45. Not sure how this satisfaction study can be considered conclusive in any context.

My point is, I'm not aware of any evidence that arranged marriages are in general a crappy deal for both sides. I found that paper while looking for a full text of this one http://psycnet.apa.org/psycinfo/1985-19991-001 which demonstrates that objective measures of love increase over time with arranged marriages and decrease with marriages for love. These papers have small sample sets because they're exploratory and pointing directions for future research, which as far as I can tell, never happened on a large scale.

Re: How Instagram Could Have Cut a Better Deal

#27
Saying the deal was bad for instagram and attributing it to careless decisions by young founders is like saying you should have known how the FB stock is going to develop.

Duh, you always take risk if part of your deal is in stocks, you dont have to be a professional to know that. Heck, people, including seasoned investors have predicted on average 54 for the stock, so why wouldnt you have taken stock?

Always awesome to see people play Captain Hindsight: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cqkI691dxNg

Re: How Instagram Could Have Cut a Better Deal

#28
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arranged marriages are equally happy as marriages "for love". http://libres.uncg.edu/ir/uncg/f/J_Myers_Marriage_2005.pdf

45 arranged marriage individuals in the study. 24 of them over the age of 45. Not sure how this satisfaction study can be considered conclusive in any context.

Assuming you're comparing arranged marriages to "love marriages" I wouldn't even bother. In the US the divorce rate is somewhere near or above 50%.

Logically "love marriages" make plenty of sense but the data proves (in the US at least) that it doesn't work. At least not once the human factor is taken into account.

People from cultures where arranged marriage is not acceptable seem to have a very hostile view on it. There's good and bad but having come from that culture as I grew older I began to see the benefits.

Re: How Instagram Could Have Cut a Better Deal

#29
post #2

TL;DR 300m + 700m in Facebook shares in April (much less today) was careless and very very very very veryvery shitty deal, for a service with no revenue, albeit hot. So learn from this.

It would have been a great deal had Facebook's stock shot up (which it could have, I think). So the split between cash and stock is a good way to hedge bets, NOT necessarily a "very very very very veryvery shitty deal".
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