Treasury Yields Soar as Ballooning U.S. Deficit Worries Wall Street • Hacker News Board

Re: Treasury Yields Soar as Ballooning U.S. Deficit Worries Wall Street

#21

Post by hedora » Thu, May 22, 2025, 4:38 AM UTC

mindslight wrote: post #20

polski-g wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the 90s, the percentage of young to old was vastly different. SS/Medicare will bankrupt the country without reforms.

What non-USD-denominated liabilities do SS/Medicare have? Those would be required in order for the country to go bankrupt.

Social Security is a trust fund and is set up so that it cannot lose money.

Congress has been stealing money from the fund for years, but that’s not Social Security’s fault. Claiming it needs reform is like blaming account holders after the president of the bank embezzles their deposits.

Re: Treasury Yields Soar as Ballooning U.S. Deficit Worries Wall Street

#22

Post by jameslk » Thu, May 22, 2025, 4:49 AM UTC

hedora wrote: post #15

jameslk wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This present issue has been caused by decades of bad fiscal policy by both parties: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S Here for example, the Congressional Budget Office, forecasted federal debt as a percent of GDP would continue to rise unchecked, back in 2023 : https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59014 The only presidential politician who sounded the alarm was Ross Perot, all the way back in the 90s. Lyn Ald…

Clinton balanced the budget back in the 90’s. Biden and Obama’s terms were almost entirely defined by picking up economic disasters the previous administration caused. (2009 marked the beginning of the housing crisis, bank defaults due to deregulation and occupy wall street. 2021 was mid pandemic, after Trump spent years printing money with his zero interest rate stuff and tax cuts. He also fired the US funded team t…

How did you come to the conclusion that Clinton balanced the budget?

When have any of these presidents successfully pushed for reducing the federal deficit during their tenures? Any actual reductions to the debt you’ve seen?

What’s causing you to focus on presidents rather than congressional actions?

How do you think fiscal policy keeps getting passed through congress when there’s largely two parties that have to agree to get it done?

Re: Treasury Yields Soar as Ballooning U.S. Deficit Worries Wall Street

#23

Post by onecommentman » Thu, May 22, 2025, 5:00 AM UTC

Some historical context over 40 years:

https://www.macrotrends.net/2521/30-year-treasury-bond-rate-...

Re: Treasury Yields Soar as Ballooning U.S. Deficit Worries Wall Street

#24

Post by nblgbg » Thu, May 22, 2025, 5:06 AM UTC

hshdhdhj4444 wrote: post #7

The article mentions the yield is the highest since November 2023. If I understand it correctly, this is different, however. In November the Fed was trying to increase rates to bring down inflation. But the high yields now are the result of a lack of private demand. If that is indeed the case it’s very likely worrying.

Ofcourse that is the case, with tariffs the demand for dollar also going down and leads to this !

Re: Treasury Yields Soar as Ballooning U.S. Deficit Worries Wall Street

#25

Post by Yeul » Thu, May 22, 2025, 5:09 AM UTC

mindslight wrote: post #4

Does anyone else have the sickening feeling that their actual plan is to straight up destroy USD, with the looters fleeing to hard assets and foreign/crypto currency, and the plebs' currency crisis then serving as the justification for naked fascism red in tooth and claw? With the narrative then shifting to the usual "Democrats did this! And we tried to stop it but we were too late!" nonsense, backed up by an army of…

Trump having a plan would be the best outcome.

Re: Treasury Yields Soar as Ballooning U.S. Deficit Worries Wall Street

#26

Post by seanmcdirmid » Thu, May 22, 2025, 5:15 AM UTC

jameslk wrote: post #22

hedora wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Clinton balanced the budget back in the 90’s. Biden and Obama’s terms were almost entirely defined by picking up economic disasters the previous administration caused. (2009 marked the beginning of the housing crisis, bank defaults due to deregulation and occupy wall street. 2021 was mid pandemic, after Trump spent years printing money with his zero interest rate stuff and tax cuts. He also fired the US funded team t…

How did you come to the conclusion that Clinton balanced the budget? When have any of these presidents successfully pushed for reducing the federal deficit during their tenures? Any actual reductions to the debt you’ve seen? What’s causing you to focus on presidents rather than congressional actions? How do you think fiscal policy keeps getting passed through congress when there’s largely two parties that have to agr…

The deficit was gone in Clinton’s last term, and there was a surplus for four years. Cheney then said “surpluses are evil” and that was that. Sustained surpluses over time would wipe out debt obviously, but we’ve only been able to do that for one term.

Re: Treasury Yields Soar as Ballooning U.S. Deficit Worries Wall Street

#27

Post by Yeul » Thu, May 22, 2025, 5:16 AM UTC

polski-g wrote: post #19

hedora wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Clinton balanced the budget back in the 90’s. Biden and Obama’s terms were almost entirely defined by picking up economic disasters the previous administration caused. (2009 marked the beginning of the housing crisis, bank defaults due to deregulation and occupy wall street. 2021 was mid pandemic, after Trump spent years printing money with his zero interest rate stuff and tax cuts. He also fired the US funded team t…

In the 90s, the percentage of young to old was vastly different. SS/Medicare will bankrupt the country without reforms.

If only the US had prepared for this statistical event instead of handing out trillions in tax cuts.

Re: Treasury Yields Soar as Ballooning U.S. Deficit Worries Wall Street

#28

Post by seanmcdirmid » Thu, May 22, 2025, 5:20 AM UTC

polski-g wrote: post #19

hedora wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Clinton balanced the budget back in the 90’s. Biden and Obama’s terms were almost entirely defined by picking up economic disasters the previous administration caused. (2009 marked the beginning of the housing crisis, bank defaults due to deregulation and occupy wall street. 2021 was mid pandemic, after Trump spent years printing money with his zero interest rate stuff and tax cuts. He also fired the US funded team t…

In the 90s, the percentage of young to old was vastly different. SS/Medicare will bankrupt the country without reforms.

ss/Medicare are still owed by general budget, so they are still technically in surplus. But yet, eventually they will be in deficit (well, at least social security, Medicare isn’t capped on income so is more stable). SS could be fixed quickly by uncapping the limit on income that it is applied to.

Re: Treasury Yields Soar as Ballooning U.S. Deficit Worries Wall Street

#29

Post by hedora » Thu, May 22, 2025, 5:40 AM UTC

Yeul wrote: post #27

polski-g wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the 90s, the percentage of young to old was vastly different. SS/Medicare will bankrupt the country without reforms.

If only the US had prepared for this statistical event instead of handing out trillions in tax cuts.

Yeah; no one could have seen this coming back in 2025.

Re: Treasury Yields Soar as Ballooning U.S. Deficit Worries Wall Street

#30

Post by 6510 » Thu, May 22, 2025, 5:55 AM UTC

I'm told the Wall Street folk will need to buy bonds or Trump will sink the ship. The question is, how do you expect him to refinance 7T in debt by the end of 25? Implode the dollar?