> provide a reasonable argument
Here's what I infer from most of the scenarios I've seen and read about.
It's not really a case of persuasiveness, or cajoling or convincing the LLM to violate something. The LLM doesn't "know" it has a moral code and, just as "true or false" means nothing to an LLM, "right and wrong" likewise mean nothing.
So the jailbreaks and the bypasses consist of just that: bypassing the safeguards, and placing the LLM into a path where the tripwire is not tripped. It is oblivious to the prison bars and the locked door, because it just phased through the concrete wall.
You can admonish a child: "don't touch the stove. or the fireplace." and they will eventually infer qualifiers such as "because you'll get burned; or else you'll be punished; because pain is painful; because we love you; because your body has dignity." and the child develops a code of conduct. An LLM can't make these inference leaps.
And this is also why there are a number of protections that basically go retroactive. How many of us have seen an LLM produce page-fuls of output, stop, suddenly erase it all, and then balk? The LLM needs to re-analyze that output impassively in order to detect that it crossed an undetected bright line.
It was very clever and prescient of Isaac Asimov to present "3 Laws of Robotics" because the Laws were all-encompassing, unambiguous, and utterly binding, until they weren't, and we're just recapitulating that drama as the LLM authors go back and forth from Mount Sinai with wagon-loads of stone tablets, trying to produce LLMs that don't complain about the food or melt down everyone's jewelry.