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AI as Normal Technology

knightcolumbia.org

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Re: AI as Normal Technology

#21

Post by datadrivenangel »

roxolotl wrote: post #12

This is a rare piece on AI which takes a coherent middle of the road viewpoint. Saying both that AI is “normal” and that it will be transformative is a radical statement in today’s discussions about AI. Looking back on other normal but transformative technologies: steam power, electricity, nuclear physics, the transistor, etc you do actually see similarly stratified opinions. Most of those are surrounded by an initia…

AI will transform everything, and after that life will continue as normal, so except for the details, it's not a big deal.

Going to be a simultaneously wild and boring ride.

Re: AI as Normal Technology

#22

Post by OhioMan2943 »

datadrivenangel wrote: post #21
roxolotl wrote: post #12

This is a rare piece on AI which takes a coherent middle of the road viewpoint. Saying both that AI is “normal” and that it will be transformative is a radical statement in today’s discussions about AI. Looking back on other normal but transformative technologies: steam power, electricity, nuclear physics, the transistor, etc you do actually see similarly stratified opinions. Most of those are surrounded by an initia…

AI will transform everything, and after that life will continue as normal, so except for the details, it's not a big deal. Going to be a simultaneously wild and boring ride.

Everything changes, but everything stays the same.

Re: AI as Normal Technology

#23

Post by mdp2021 »

lo_zamoyski wrote: post #20
roxolotl wrote: post #12

This is a rare piece on AI which takes a coherent middle of the road viewpoint. Saying both that AI is “normal” and that it will be transformative is a radical statement in today’s discussions about AI. Looking back on other normal but transformative technologies: steam power, electricity, nuclear physics, the transistor, etc you do actually see similarly stratified opinions. Most of those are surrounded by an initia…

The surest defense against fashionable nonsense is a sound philosophical education and a temperament disinclined to hysteria. Ignorance leaves you wide open to all manner of emotional misadventure. But even when you are in possession of the relevant facts — and a passable grasp of the principles involved — it requires a certain moral maturity to resist or remain untouched by the lure of melodrama and the thrill of be…

> sound philosophical education and a temperament disinclined to hysteria

Sound good common sense suffices - the ability to go "dude, that's ". Preferring a clear idea of reality to intoxication... That should not be hard to ask and obtain.

> it requires a certain moral maturity to

Same thing.

Re: AI as Normal Technology

#24

Post by owebmaster »

datadrivenangel wrote: post #21
roxolotl wrote: post #12

This is a rare piece on AI which takes a coherent middle of the road viewpoint. Saying both that AI is “normal” and that it will be transformative is a radical statement in today’s discussions about AI. Looking back on other normal but transformative technologies: steam power, electricity, nuclear physics, the transistor, etc you do actually see similarly stratified opinions. Most of those are surrounded by an initia…

AI will transform everything, and after that life will continue as normal, so except for the details, it's not a big deal. Going to be a simultaneously wild and boring ride.

> AI will transform everything, and after that life will continue as normal

100%. It just happened with the advent of the internet and then smartphones.

Re: AI as Normal Technology

#25

Post by throwup238 »

owebmaster wrote: post #24
datadrivenangel wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI will transform everything, and after that life will continue as normal, so except for the details, it's not a big deal. Going to be a simultaneously wild and boring ride.

> AI will transform everything, and after that life will continue as normal 100%. It just happened with the advent of the internet and then smartphones.

And thanks to both, future trends are getting established faster and faster. It took about a decade for the internet to go mainstream, maybe five years for smartphones, and now just a year or two for LLMs. It’s pretty fascinating watching that process get more and more compressed over a lifetime.

Re: AI as Normal Technology

#26

Post by dijksterhuis »

torginus wrote: post #15
dijksterhuis wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Linux is the “best” kernel > Linux isn’t the “best” OS kernel != OS. kernel makes the OS possible. and the linux kernel makes it possible for a lot of linux OSes to exist. also… android?

I know the difference between an OS and the kernel, still a lot of devices don't run on the Linux kernel. Windows isn't Linux, macOS/iOS is not Linux, PS5/Xbox/Nintendo don't run on Linux, Xiaomi and Huawei are transitioning away from Linux. I stand by my point that Linux isn't particularly dominant in the consumer space, even if we include Android, whose Linux-ness and open source pedigree is questionable.

i’ll try another way

> the internal combustion engine is the “best” engine

> lorries/hgvs are not the “best” vehicles

then

> lorries/hgvs are in the minority, so the internal combustion engine cannot be the best vehicle

> … cars?

nothing you’ve said refutes the statement ‘linux is the “best” kernel’.

like, i geddit. you don’t like linux OSes. you’re entitled to have an opinion.

i personally disagree. but that doesn’t matter. my opinion is not really worth much.

Re: AI as Normal Technology

#27

Post by xpe »

> One important caveat: We explicitly exclude military AI from our analysis, as it involves classified capabilities and unique dynamics that require a deeper analysis, which is beyond the scope of this essay.

Important is an understatement. Recursively self-improving AI with military applications does not mesh with the claim that "Arms races are an old problem".

> Again, our message is that this is not a new problem. The tradeoff between innovation and regulation is a recurring dilemma for the regulatory state.

I take the point, but the above statement is scoped to a _state_, not an international dynamic. The AI arms race is international in nature. There are relatively few examples of similar international agreements. The classic examples are bans on chemical weapons and genetic engineering.

Re: AI as Normal Technology

#28

Post by bluefirebrand »

owebmaster wrote: post #24
datadrivenangel wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI will transform everything, and after that life will continue as normal, so except for the details, it's not a big deal. Going to be a simultaneously wild and boring ride.

> AI will transform everything, and after that life will continue as normal 100%. It just happened with the advent of the internet and then smartphones.

I think the problem I have is that it still doesn't feel like society has really caught up to the impact that The Internet and Smartphones have had, and we keep getting disrupted faster and faster it seems

I know that there have always been disruptive technologies, but I the the rate of "technologies that are disrupting everything" as opposed to "technologies that are disrupting just one thing" has been kind of crazy

Re: AI as Normal Technology

#29

Post by owebmaster »

torginus wrote: post #15
dijksterhuis wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Linux is the “best” kernel > Linux isn’t the “best” OS kernel != OS. kernel makes the OS possible. and the linux kernel makes it possible for a lot of linux OSes to exist. also… android?

I know the difference between an OS and the kernel, still a lot of devices don't run on the Linux kernel. Windows isn't Linux, macOS/iOS is not Linux, PS5/Xbox/Nintendo don't run on Linux, Xiaomi and Huawei are transitioning away from Linux. I stand by my point that Linux isn't particularly dominant in the consumer space, even if we include Android, whose Linux-ness and open source pedigree is questionable.

> I stand by my point that Linux isn't particularly dominant in the consumer space

what if we add Steam deck? chromebooks? smartTVs, smartwatches, amazon echo, google home? GoPro and similar cameras? Maybe we should add some drones too. There are way more devices using linux in the hands of consumers than all other OS's together.

Re: AI as Normal Technology

#30

Post by kjkjadksj »

xpe wrote: post #27

> One important caveat: We explicitly exclude military AI from our analysis, as it involves classified capabilities and unique dynamics that require a deeper analysis, which is beyond the scope of this essay. Important is an understatement. Recursively self-improving AI with military applications does not mesh with the claim that "Arms races are an old problem". > Again, our message is that this is not a new problem.…

The US military probably already has Mendicant Bias in alpha build.
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