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South Korea Is over [video]

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Re: South Korea Is over [video]

#21

Post by yongjik »

Xenoamorphous wrote: post #4

I wonder why immigration was not mentioned as a measure to alleviate the issue.

I think people are talking about immigration, though it's a thorny issue, partly because Korea has been virtually monoethnic for a very long time. But I think Korea will eventually have to open up more: the current population crisis is so dire that I don't think Korea is in a position to choose its medicine.

(I don't think immigration alone will solve the problem, BTW - Korea should obviously fix its horrendous work culture, education, and runaway housing prices.)

Re: South Korea Is over [video]

#22

Post by missedthecue »

brap wrote: post #2

Genuinely asking - what if every person was held accountable to save for their own retirement, instead of relying on the taxpayer? Would a shrinkage still cause economic collapse? Seems like the core issue is that we have a system in place that only works when young >> old

In a world with a constantly shrinking population, what investment is expected to grow over time?

- Stocks are a melting ice cube selling to a perennially shrinking consumer base.

- Bonds offer low returns and suffer from credit risk due to the above. Do we really think Japan is good for their 2055 bonds, assuming no inflation or debasement?

- Property also faces challenges with a shrinking population. Rural Korea, Japan, Italy and other places are already full of housing and commercial buildings selling for $30k and they're all overpriced.

The truth is that there is no model of retirement -- not the state model, private investment model, or family model that works in a world where the population is shrinking 50-70% per generation.

Re: South Korea Is over [video]

#23

Post by missedthecue »

9283409232 wrote: post #12

You're seeing similar things in many different countries. The ruling class doesn't quite understand it. If people can barely support themselves, then the logical thing to do is to not have children. You can incentivize child birth all you want with economic carrots but the fundamental problem remains. Japan has a similar problem that South Korea does, the US is starting to see a similar problem with a birth rate of 1…

People in South Sudan feel very financially secure you reckon?

Re: South Korea Is over [video]

#26

Post by 9283409232 »

missedthecue wrote: post #23
9283409232 wrote: post #12

You're seeing similar things in many different countries. The ruling class doesn't quite understand it. If people can barely support themselves, then the logical thing to do is to not have children. You can incentivize child birth all you want with economic carrots but the fundamental problem remains. Japan has a similar problem that South Korea does, the US is starting to see a similar problem with a birth rate of 1…

People in South Sudan feel very financially secure you reckon?

I don't know what your point is but the recipe for birth rate decline is increased quality of life + low child mortality. South Sudan has one of the highest child mortality rates https://data.unicef.org/country/ssd/ and I'm going to guess the quality of life there is just a smidge lower than South Korea.

Re: South Korea Is over [video]

#27

Post by trilbyglens »

0x000xca0xfe wrote: post #10
Xenoamorphous wrote: post #4

I wonder why immigration was not mentioned as a measure to alleviate the issue.

Korean work culture is so awful I'm not sure they could even find enough foreigners willing to work like this long-term. Also the language is really hard to learn. The only solution IMO would be a culture change. But this is not going to happen while old people hold the reins everywhere.

Culture change is often the solution, and as a species we still haven't discovered a way to do it without violence.

Re: South Korea Is over [video]

#28

Post by seec »

brap wrote: post #2

Genuinely asking - what if every person was held accountable to save for their own retirement, instead of relying on the taxpayer? Would a shrinkage still cause economic collapse? Seems like the core issue is that we have a system in place that only works when young >> old

You wouldn't get a collapse, but necessarily a contraction, the pie is getting smaller regardless, having less people to "eat it".

Yes, having a system based solely on positive demography isn't any good. In fact, I would argue that the reverse of this scenario is much worse. No matter what some would like to pretend, ressources are finite on earth and if you have a population big enough that deplete them faster that they can be renewed/recycled it is not good.

In any case I think it's wrong to look at it as a purely economic problem. It seems logical that one should be accountable for one's own retirement.

Previously this was done by having kids, because regardless of the economic situation they could always build on what the parents had and it doesn't take much to support your elder (unless they want a luxurious lifestyle).

Part of the problem is that the old generations (especially the boomers) have re-routed ressource distribution to themselves and you have an overspending on the past at the expense of future building.

The incentive around the providence state and pensions were all wrong in the first place now people are surprised that the results are undesirable (usually the one who advocated for the system).

Re: South Korea Is over [video]

#29

Post by chneu »

Xenoamorphous wrote: post #4

I wonder why immigration was not mentioned as a measure to alleviate the issue.

I might get flack for this, but asian cultures are super racist.

They can be very mono and hostile to outsiders.

That, paired with a ridiculous work ethic, means not many people wanna move there.

Re: South Korea Is over [video]

#30

Post by aoki »

missedthecue wrote: post #22
brap wrote: post #2

Genuinely asking - what if every person was held accountable to save for their own retirement, instead of relying on the taxpayer? Would a shrinkage still cause economic collapse? Seems like the core issue is that we have a system in place that only works when young >> old

In a world with a constantly shrinking population, what investment is expected to grow over time? - Stocks are a melting ice cube selling to a perennially shrinking consumer base. - Bonds offer low returns and suffer from credit risk due to the above. Do we really think Japan is good for their 2055 bonds, assuming no inflation or debasement? - Property also faces challenges with a shrinking population. Rural Korea, J…

Japan’s dream: robot caretaking that becomes cheaper (including its inputs, like food for the human) at an even faster rate.
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